A planetary nervous system for social mining and collective awareness

We present a research roadmap of a Planetary Nervous System (PNS), capable of sensing and mining the digital breadcrumbs of human activities and unveiling the knowledge hidden in the big data for addressing the big questions about social complexity. We envision the PNS as a globally distributed, self-organizing, techno-social system for answering analytical questions about the status of world-wide society, based on three pillars: social sensing, social mining and the idea of trust networks and privacy-aware social mining. We discuss the ingredients of a science and a technology necessary to build the PNS upon the three mentioned pillars, beyond the limitations of their respective state-of-art. Social sensing is aimed at developing better methods for harvesting the big data from the techno-social ecosystem and make them available for mining, learning and analysis at a properly high abstraction level. Social mining is the problem of discovering patterns and models of human behaviour from the sensed data across the various social dimensions by data mining, machine learning and social network analysis. Trusted networks and privacy-aware social mining is aimed at creating a new deal around the questions of privacy and data ownership empowering individual persons with full awareness and control on own personal data, so that users may allow access and use of their data for their own good and the common good. The PNS will provide a goal-oriented knowledge discovery framework, made of technology and people, able to configure itself to the aim of answering questions about the pulse of global society. Given an analytical request, the PNS activates a process composed by a variety of interconnected tasks exploiting the social sensing and mining methods within the transparent ecosystem provided by the trusted network. The PNS we foresee is the key tool for individual and collective awareness for the knowledge society. We need such a tool for everyone to become fully aware of how powerful is the knowledge of our society we can achieve by leveraging our wisdom as a crowd, and how important is that everybody participates both as a consumer and as a producer of the social knowledge, for it to become a trustable, accessible, safe and useful public good. Graphical abstrac

A planetary nervous system for social mining and collective awareness

We present a research roadmap of a Planetary Nervous System (PNS), capable of sensing and mining the digital breadcrumbs of human activities and unveiling the knowledge hidden in the big data for addressing the big questions about social complexity. We envision the PNS as a globally distributed, self-organizing, techno-social system for answering analytical questions about the status of world-wide society, based on three pillars: social sensing, social mining and the idea of trust networks and privacy-aware social mining. We discuss the ingredients of a science and a technology necessary to build the PNS upon the three mentioned pillars, beyond the limitations of their respective state-of-art. Social sensing is aimed at developing better methods for harvesting the big data from the techno-social ecosystem and make them available for mining, learning and analysis at a properly high abstraction level. Social mining is the problem of discovering patterns and models of human behaviour from the sensed data across the various social dimensions by data mining, machine learning and social network analysis. Trusted networks and privacy-aware social mining is aimed at creating a new deal around the questions of privacy and data ownership empowering individual persons with full awareness and control on own personal data, so that users may allow access and use of their data for their own good and the common good. The PNS will provide a goal-oriented knowledge discovery framework, made of technology and people, able to configure itself to the aim of answering questions about the pulse of global society. Given an analytical request, the PNS activates a process composed by a variety of interconnected tasks exploiting the social sensing and mining methods within the transparent ecosystem provided by the trusted network. The PNS we foresee is the key tool for individual and collective awareness for the knowledge society. We need such a tool for everyone to become fully aware of how powerful is the knowledge of our society we can achieve by leveraging our wisdom as a crowd, and how important is that everybody participates both as a consumer and as a producer of the social knowledge, for it to become a trustable, accessible, safe and useful public good.Seventh Framework Programme (European Commission) (grant agreement No. 284709

Genetic structure of pike (Esox lucius) reveals a complex and previously unrecognized colonization history of Ireland

Aim: We investigated genetic variation of Irish pike populations and their relationship with European outgroups, in order to elucidate the origin of this species to the island, which is largely assumed to have occurred as a human-mediated introduction over the past few hundred years. We aimed thereby to provide new insights into population structure to improve fisheries and biodiversity management in Irish freshwaters. Location: Ireland, Britain and continental Europe. Methods: A total of 752 pike (Esox lucius) were sampled from 15 locations around Ireland, and 9 continental European sites, and genotyped at six polymorphic microsatellite loci. Patterns and mechanisms of population genetic structure were assessed through a diverse array of methods, including Bayesian clustering, hierarchical analysis of molecular variance, and approximate Bayesian computation. Results: Varying levels of genetic diversity and a high degree of population genetic differentiation were detected. Clear substructure within Ireland was identified, with two main groups being evident. One of the Irish populations showed high similarity with British populations. The other, more widespread, Irish strain did not group with any European population examined. Approximate Bayesian computation suggested that this widespread Irish strain is older, and may have colonized Ireland independently of humans. Main conclusions: Population genetic substructure in Irish pike is high and comparable to the levels observed elsewhere in Europe. A comparison of evolutionary scenarios upholds the possibility that pike may have colonized Ireland in two ‘waves’, the first of which, being independent of human colonization, would represent the first evidence for natural colonization of a non-anadromous 42 freshwater fish to the island of Ireland. Although further investigations using comprehensive genomic techniques will be necessary to confirm this, the present results warrant a reappraisal of current management strategies for this species

WGEAWESS: Integrated Ecosystems Assessment of the Western European Shelf Seas

oral presentation abstractTraditionally, integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA) has been developed regionally using different strategies and tools, leading to problems of comparability and integration and even different assessments of status (e.g. GES) across shared boundaries. WGEAWESS undertakes IEA throughout the western European shelf seas to support ecosystem-based management (EBM) measures at the local, national, regional and EU levels. Relevant to key EU Directives (e.g. MSFD, WFD & CFP), IEA makes explicit links between human activities and ecosystem health, assessing the scale of impact and recovery, enabling targeted management and mitigation measures. Employing a combination of integrated trend analyses to generate time series of pressures and impacts, semi-quantitative methods to fill data gaps and inform future research effort, and reviewing and updating existing ecosystem models throughout the regions, WGEAWESS reviews and assesses patterns of human activities, their pressures, and ecosystem components to underpin the process. WGEAWESS is developing plans to advance this work thought a large scale project that would use quantitative integrators of ecosystem functioning (indicators) in experimental platforms to assess and gain insight into pressure effects and proliferation, and to forecast futures under various management scenarios. Case study investigations, with priorities specified via direct engagement with relevant stakeholders, would enable management decisions to be based on regional and/or local priorities, and ensuring recognition of the social context. Finally, a guide on translating IEA into advice for EBM and demonstrating its practical use in informing specific issues regarding the management of ecosystem services would be produced, along with an interactive web-based ‘living’ tool which will and provide a key resource for researchers, decision-makers and the general public alike

GLocalX - From Local to Global Explanations of Black Box AI Models

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has come to prominence as one of the major components of our society, with applications in most aspects of our lives. In this field, complex and highly nonlinear machine learning models such as ensemble models, deep neural networks, and Support Vector Machines have consistently shown remarkable accuracy in solving complex tasks. Although accurate, AI models often are “black boxes” which we are not able to understand. Relying on these models has a multifaceted impact and raises significant concerns about their transparency. Applications in sensitive and critical domains are a strong motivational factor in trying to understand the behavior of black boxes. We propose to address this issue by providing an interpretable layer on top of black box models by aggregating “local” explanations. We present GLOCALX, a “local-first” model agnostic explanation method. Starting from local explanations expressed in form of local decision rules, GLOCALX iteratively generalizes them into global explanations by hierarchically aggregating them. Our goal is to learn accurate yet simple interpretable models to emulate the given black box, and, if possible, replace it entirely. We validate GLOCALX in a set of experiments in standard and constrained settings with limited or no access to either data or local explanations. Experiments show that GLOCALX is able to accurately emulate several models with simple and small models, reaching state-of-the-art performance against natively global solutions. Our findings show how it is often possible to achieve a high level of both accuracy and comprehensibility of classification models, even in complex domains with high-dimensional data, without necessarily trading one property for the other. This is a key requirement for a trustworthy AI, necessary for adoption in high-stakes decision making applications.Artificial Intelligence (AI) has come to prominence as one of the major components of our society, with applications in most aspects of our lives. In this field, complex and highly nonlinear machine learning models such as ensemble models, deep neural networks, and Support Vector Machines have consistently shown remarkable accuracy in solving complex tasks. Although accurate, AI models often are “black boxes” which we are not able to understand. Relying on these models has a multifaceted impact and raises significant concerns about their transparency. Applications in sensitive and critical domains are a strong motivational factor in trying to understand the behavior of black boxes. We propose to address this issue by providing an interpretable layer on top of black box models by aggregating “local” explanations. We present GLOCALX, a “local-first” model agnostic explanation method. Starting from local explanations expressed in form of local decision rules, GLOCALX iteratively generalizes them into global explanations by hierarchically aggregating them. Our goal is to learn accurate yet simple interpretable models to emulate the given black box, and, if possible, replace it entirely. We validate GLOCALX in a set of experiments in standard and constrained settings with limited or no access to either data or local explanations. Experiments show that GLOCALX is able to accurately emulate several models with simple and small models, reaching state-of-the-art performance against natively global solutions. Our findings show how it is often possible to achieve a high level of both accuracy and comprehensibility of classification models, even in complex domains with high-dimensional data, without necessarily trading one property for the other. This is a key requirement for a trustworthy AI, necessary for adoption in high-stakes decision making applications

Opening the black box: a primer for anti-discrimination

The pervasive adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) models in the modern information society, requires counterbalancing the growing decision power demanded to AI models with risk assessment methodologies. In this paper, we consider the risk of discriminatory decisions and review approaches for discovering discrimination and for designing fair AI models. We highlight the tight relations between discrimination discovery and explainable AI, with the latter being a more general approach for understanding the behavior of black boxes

Visually driven analysis of movement data by progressive clustering

The paper investigates the possibilities of using clustering techniques in visual exploration and analysis of large numbers of trajectories, that is, sequences of time-stamped locations of some moving entities. Trajectories are complex spatio-temporal constructs characterized by diverse non-trivial properties. To assess the degree of (dis)similarity between trajectories, specific methods (distance functions) are required. A single distance function accounting for all properties of trajectories, (1) is difficult to build, (2) would require much time to compute, and (3) might be difficult to understand and to use. We suggest the procedure of progressive clustering where a simple distance function with a clear meaning is applied on each step, which leads to easily interpretable outcomes. Successive application of several different functions enables sophisticated analyses through gradual refinement of earlier obtained results. Besides the advantages from the sense-making perspective, progressive clustering enables a rational work organization where time-consuming computations are applied to relatively small potentially interesting subsets obtained by means of ‘cheap’ distance functions producing quick results. We introduce the concept of progressive clustering by an example of analyzing a large real data set. We also review the existing clustering methods, describe the method OPTICS suitable for progressive clustering of trajectories, and briefly present several distance functions for trajectories