Improved model identification for non-linear systems using a random subsampling and multifold modelling (RSMM) approach

In non-linear system identification, the available observed data are conventionally partitioned into two parts: the training data that are used for model identification and the test data that are used for model performance testing. This sort of 'hold-out' or 'split-sample' data partitioning method is convenient and the associated model identification procedure is in general easy to implement. The resultant model obtained from such a once-partitioned single training dataset, however, may occasionally lack robustness and generalisation to represent future unseen data, because the performance of the identified model may be highly dependent on how the data partition is made. To overcome the drawback of the hold-out data partitioning method, this study presents a new random subsampling and multifold modelling (RSMM) approach to produce less biased or preferably unbiased models. The basic idea and the associated procedure are as follows. First, generate K training datasets (and also K validation datasets), using a K-fold random subsampling method. Secondly, detect significant model terms and identify a common model structure that fits all the K datasets using a new proposed common model selection approach, called the multiple orthogonal search algorithm. Finally, estimate and refine the model parameters for the identified common-structured model using a multifold parameter estimation method. The proposed method can produce robust models with better generalisation performance

Analysis of bilinear oscillators under harmonic loading using nonlinear output frequency response functions

In this paper, the new concept of Nonlinear Output Frequency Response Functions (NOFRFs) is extended to the harmonic input case, an input-independent relationship is found between the NOFRFs and the Generalized Frequency Response Functions (GFRFs). This relationship can greatly simplify the application of the NOFRFs. Then, beginning with the demonstration that a bilinear oscillator can be approximated using a polynomial type nonlinear oscillator, the NOFRFs are used to analyze the energy transfer phenomenon of bilinear oscillators in the frequency domain. The analysis provides insight into how new frequency generation can occur using bilinear oscillators and how the sub-resonances occur for the bilinear oscillators, and reveals that it is the resonant frequencies of the NOFRFs that dominate the occurrence of this well-known nonlinear behaviour. The results are of significance for the design and fault diagnosis of mechanical systems and structures which can be described by a bilinear oscillator model

Choosing wisely? Quantifying the extent of three low value psychotropic prescribing practices in Australia

BACKGROUND:The global Choosing Wisely campaign has identified the following psychotropic prescribing as low-value (harmful or wasteful): (1) benzodiazepine use in the elderly, (2) antipsychotic use in dementia and (3) prescribing two or more antipsychotics concurrently. We aimed to quantify the extent of these prescribing practices in the Australian population. METHODS:We applied indicators to dispensing claims of a 10% random sample of Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme beneficiaries to quantify annual rates of each low-value practice from 2013 to 2016. We also assessed patient factors and direct medicine costs (extrapolated to the entire Australian population) associated with each practice in 2016. RESULTS:We observed little change in the rates of the three practices between 2013 and 2016. In 2016, 15.3% of people aged ≥65 years were prescribed a benzodiazepine, 0.5% were prescribed antipsychotics in the context of dementia and 0.2% of people aged ≥18 years received two or more antipsychotics concurrently. The likelihood of elderly people receiving benzodiazepines or antipsychotics in the context of dementia increased with age and the likelihood of receiving all three practices increased with comorbidity burden. In 2016, direct medicine costs to the government of all three practices combined, extrapolated to national figures, were > $21 million AUD. CONCLUSIONS:Our indicators suggest that the frequency of these three practices has not changed appreciably in recent years and that they incur significant costs. Worryingly, people with the greatest risk of harm from these prescribing practices are often the most likely to receive them.Jonathan Brett, Helga Zoega, Nicholas A. Buckley, Benjamin J. Daniels, Adam G. Elshaug and Sallie-Anne Pearso

Nonparametric nonlinear model predictive control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has recently found wide acceptance in industrial applications, but its potential has been much impeded by linear models due to the lack of a similarly accepted nonlinear modeling or databased technique. Aimed at solving this problem, the paper addresses three issues: (i) extending second-order Volterra nonlinear MPC (NMPC) to higher-order for improved prediction and control; (ii) formulating NMPC directly with plant data without needing for parametric modeling, which has hindered the progress of NMPC; and (iii) incorporating an error estimator directly in the formulation and hence eliminating the need for a nonlinear state observer. Following analysis of NMPC objectives and existing solutions, nonparametric NMPC is derived in discrete-time using multidimensional convolution between plant data and Volterra kernel measurements. This approach is validated against the benchmark van de Vusse nonlinear process control problem and is applied to an industrial polymerization process by using Volterra kernels of up to the third order. Results show that the nonparametric approach is very efficient and effective and considerably outperforms existing methods, while retaining the original data-based spirit and characteristics of linear MPC

Low-value care in Australian public hospitals: prevalence and trends over time

Objective: To examine 27 low-value procedures, as defined by international recommendations, in New South Wales public hospitals. Design: Analysis of admitted patient data for financial years 2010–2011 to 2016–2017. Main outcome measures: Number and proportion of episodes identified as low value by two definitions (narrower and broader), associated costs and bed-days, and variation between hospitals in financial year 2016–2017; trends in numbers of low-value episodes from 2010–2011 to 2016–2017. Results: For 27 procedures in 2016–2017, we identified 5079 (narrower definition) to 8855 (broader definition) episodes involving low-value care (11.00%–19.18% of all 46 169 episodes involving these services). These episodes were associated with total inpatient costs of $A49.9 million (narrower) to$A99.3 million (broader), which was 7.4% (narrower) to 14.7% (broader) of the total $A674.6 million costs for all episodes involving these procedures in 2016–2017, and involved 14 348 (narrower) to 29 705 (broader) bed-days. Half the procedures accounted for less than 2% of all low-value episodes identified; three of these had no low-value episodes in 2016–2017. The proportion of low-value care varied widely between hospitals. Of the 14 procedures accounting for most low-value care, seven showed decreasing trends from 2010–2011 to 2016–2017, while three (colonoscopy for constipation, endoscopy for dyspepsia, sentinel lymph node biopsy for melanoma in situ) showed increasing trends. Conclusions: Low-value care in this Australian public hospital setting is not common for most of the measured procedures, but colonoscopy for constipation, endoscopy for dyspepsia and sentinel lymph node biopys for melanoma in situ require further investigation and action to reverse increasing trends. The variation between procedures and hospitals may imply different drivers and potential remedies.Tim Badgery-Parker, Sallie-Anne Pearson, Kelsey Chalmers, Jonathan Brett, Ian A Scott, Susan Dunn, Neville Onley, Adam G Elshau

A functional riboSNitch in the 3' untranslated region of FKBP5 alters MicroRNA-320a binding efficiency and mediates vulnerability to chronic post-traumatic pain

Previous studies have shown that common variants of the gene coding for FK506-binding protein 51 (FKBP5), a critical regulator of glucocorticoid sensitivity, affect vulnerability to stress-related disorders. In a previous report, FKBP5 rs1360780 was identified as a functional variant because of its effect on gene methylation. Here we report evidence for a novel functional FKBP5 allele, rs3800373. This study assessed the association between rs3800373 and post-traumatic chronic pain in 1607 women and men from two ethnically diverse human cohorts. The molecular mechanism through which rs3800373 affects adverse outcomes was established via in silico, in vivo, and in vitro analyses. The rs3800373 minor allele predicted worse adverse outcomes after trauma exposure, such that individuals with the minor (risk) allele developed more severe post-traumatic chronic musculoskeletal pain. Among these individuals, peritraumatic circulating FKBP5 expression levels increased as cortisol and glucocorticoid receptor (NR3C1) mRNA levels increased, consistent with increased glucocorticoid resistance. Bioinformatic, in vitro, and mutational analyses indicate that the rs3800373 minor allele reduces the binding of a stress-and pain-associated microRNA, miR-320a, to FKBP5 via altering the FKBP5 mRNA 3'UTR secondary structure (i.e., is a riboSNitch). This results in relatively greater FKBP5 translation, unchecked by miR-320a. Overall, these results identify an important gene–miRNA interaction influencing chronic pain risk in vulnerable individuals and suggest that exogenous methods to achieve targeted reduction in poststress FKBP5 mRNA expression may constitute useful therapeutic strategies

Natural Orbitals and BEC in traps, a diffusion Monte Carlo analysis

We investigate the properties of hard core Bosons in harmonic traps over a wide range of densities. Bose-Einstein condensation is formulated using the one-body Density Matrix (OBDM) which is equally valid at low and high densities. The OBDM is calculated using diffusion Monte Carlo methods and it is diagonalized to obtain the "natural" single particle orbitals and their occupation, including the condensate fraction. At low Boson density, $na^3 < 10^{-5}$, where $n = N/V$ and $a$ is the hard core diameter, the condensate is localized at the center of the trap. As $na^3$ increases, the condensate moves to the edges of the trap. At high density it is localized at the edges of the trap. At $na^3 \leq 10^{-4}$ the Gross-Pitaevskii theory of the condensate describes the whole system within 1%. At $na^3 \approx 10^{-3}$ corrections are 3% to the GP energy but 30% to the Bogoliubov prediction of the condensate depletion. At $na^3 \gtrsim 10^{-2}$, mean field theory fails. At $na^3 \gtrsim 0.1$, the Bosons behave more like a liquid $^4$He droplet than a trapped Boson gas.Comment: 13 pages, 14 figures, submitted Phys. Rev.

A class of Schrodinger operators with decaying oscillatory potentials

We discuss Schr\"odinger operators on a half-line with decaying oscillatory potentials, such as products of an almost periodic function and a decaying function. We provide sufficient conditions for preservation of absolutely continuous spectrum and give bounds on the Hausdorff dimension of the singular part of the spectral measure. We also discuss the analogs for orthogonal polynomials on the real line and unit circle.Comment: 18 page

Comparison of some Reduced Representation Approximations

In the field of numerical approximation, specialists considering highly complex problems have recently proposed various ways to simplify their underlying problems. In this field, depending on the problem they were tackling and the community that are at work, different approaches have been developed with some success and have even gained some maturity, the applications can now be applied to information analysis or for numerical simulation of PDE's. At this point, a crossed analysis and effort for understanding the similarities and the differences between these approaches that found their starting points in different backgrounds is of interest. It is the purpose of this paper to contribute to this effort by comparing some constructive reduced representations of complex functions. We present here in full details the Adaptive Cross Approximation (ACA) and the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) together with other approaches that enter in the same category