Implications of climate change for ecological reference conditions, thresholds and classification systems for European lakes

This report focuses on potential effects of climate change on ecological reference conditions and on ecological responses to nutrient pressures in lakes, especially threshold-type and non-linear responses. Reference conditions and thresholds responses are both fundamental for na-tional ecological classification systems according to the European Water Framework Direc-tive (WFD), for defining reference values and management targets (Good/Moderate class boundary) respectively. Effects of climate change on these components therefore have impor-tant implications for assessment of ecological status and management of lakes. We have addressed the effects of climate change on lakes by an extensive literature review, as well as by analysing palaeolimnological datasets, large-scale European datasets and long-term time series for four individual lakes in Norway, Estonia and Germany (case studies). The cli-matic changes considered include increased temperature, increased precipitation (and conse-quently increased content of organic matter) and reduced precipitation (and consequently re-duced water levels and increased salinity). The literature review describes effects of climate change on reference conditions for each biological quality element (BQE; phytoplankton, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates and fish); of these phytoplankton and fish tend to be most sensitive to climate change. Results from new palaeolimnological analyses suggest that nutrients are the dominant driver of diatom compositional change, and there is insufficient evidence to suggest how reference conditions should be modified in light of climate change. Nonetheless further work is required to explore the relationship between diatoms and climate change in more detail. Analysis of chlorophyll a (chl-a) in European reference lakes suggest that under future climatic condi-tions, increased temperature in combination with increased TP (due to increased winter pre-cipitation) will lead to increased chl-a concentrations, although the effects will vary with the lake type (notably the humic level). Large-scale analysis of cyanobacteria in North-European lakes, considering both lake typology and climatic variables, suggest that the risk of exceed-ing regulatory thresholds for cyanobacteria will increase with future higher temperature, but also that this tendency to some degree might be compensated by increased precipitation. The four case studies provide more detailed examples of interactions between climatic factors and nutrient pressures on plankton communities, and demonstrate some of the complexity in-volved in ecological responses to climate change in lakes. Finally, the report provides a set of recommendations for river basin management, considering impacts of climate change on ref-erence conditions and ecological thresholds, and the implications for WFD-based classifica-tion systems

Strength and uncertainty of phytoplankton metrics for assessing eutrophication impacts in lakes

Phytoplankton constitutes a diverse array of short-lived organisms which derive their nutrients from the water column of lakes. These features make this community the most direct and earliest indicator of the impacts of changing nutrient conditions on lake ecosystems. It also makes them particularly suitable for measuring the success of restoration measures following reductions in nutrient loads. This paper integrates a large volume of work on a number of measures, or metrics, developed for using phytoplankton to assess the ecological status of European lakes, as required for the Water Framework Directive. It assesses the indicator strength of these metrics, specifically in relation to representing the impacts of eutrophication. It also examines how these measures vary naturally at different locations within a lake, as well as between lakes, and how much variability is associated with different replicate samples, different months within a year and between years. On the basis of this analysis, three of the strongest metrics (chlorophyll-a, phytoplankton trophic index (PTI), and cyanobacterial biovolume) are recommended for use as robust measures for assessing the ecological quality of lakes in relation to nutrient-enrichment pressures and a minimum recommended sampling frequency is provided for these three metrics

Influenza nucleoprotein delivered with aluminium salts protects mice from an influenza virus that expresses an altered nucleoprotein sequence

Influenza virus poses a difficult challenge for protective immunity. This virus is adept at altering its surface proteins, the proteins that are the targets of neutralizing antibody. Consequently, each year a new vaccine must be developed to combat the current recirculating strains. A universal influenza vaccine that primes specific memory cells that recognise conserved parts of the virus could prove to be effective against both annual influenza variants and newly emergent potentially pandemic strains. Such a vaccine will have to contain a safe and effective adjuvant that can be used in individuals of all ages. We examine protection from viral challenge in mice vaccinated with the nucleoprotein from the PR8 strain of influenza A, a protein that is highly conserved across viral subtypes. Vaccination with nucleoprotein delivered with a universally used and safe adjuvant, composed of insoluble aluminium salts, provides protection against viruses that either express the same or an altered version of nucleoprotein. This protection correlated with the presence of nucleoprotein specific CD8 T cells in the lungs of infected animals at early time points after infection. In contrast, immunization with NP delivered with alum and the detoxified LPS adjuvant, monophosphoryl lipid A, provided some protection to the homologous viral strain but no protection against infection by influenza expressing a variant nucleoprotein. Together, these data point towards a vaccine solution for all influenza A subtypes

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985–2009

Peer reviewe

Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes

In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short-term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well-developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short- and long-term. We summarize the current understanding of storm-induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.Peer reviewe

Interactions between Predation and Resources Shape Zooplankton Population Dynamics

Identifying the relative importance of predation and resources in population dynamics has a long tradition in ecology, while interactions between them have been studied less intensively. In order to disentangle the effects of predation by juvenile fish, algal resource availability and their interactive effects on zooplankton population dynamics, we conducted an enclosure experiment where zooplankton were exposed to a gradient of predation of roach (Rutilus rutilus) at different algal concentrations. We show that zooplankton populations collapse under high predation pressure irrespective of resource availability, confirming that juvenile fish are able to severely reduce zooplankton prey when occurring in high densities. At lower predation pressure, however, the effect of predation depended on algal resource availability since high algal resource supply buffered against predation. Hence, we suggest that interactions between mass-hatching of fish, and the strong fluctuations in algal resources in spring have the potential to regulate zooplankton population dynamics. In a broader perspective, increasing spring temperatures due to global warming will most likely affect the timing of these processes and have consequences for the spring and summer zooplankton dynamics

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

peer reviewedIn this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade-1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors - from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade-1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade-1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

Peer reviewed. ©2015. The Authors.This is an open access article under theterms of the Creative CommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-N oDerivsLicense, which permits use and distri-bution in any medium, provided theoriginal work is properly cited, the use isnon-commerc ial and no modificationsor adaptations are made.In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade 1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors —from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade 1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade 1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985–2009

Global environmental change has influenced lake surface temperatures, a key driver of ecosystem structure and function. Recent studies have suggested significant warming of water temperatures in individual lakes across many different regions around the world. However, the spatial and temporal coherence associated with the magnitude of these trends remains unclear. Thus, a global data set of water temperature is required to understand and synthesize global, long-term trends in surface water temperatures of inland bodies of water. We assembled a database of summer lake surface temperatures for 291 lakes collected in situ and/or by satellites for the period 1985–2009. In addition, corresponding climatic drivers (air temperatures, solar radiation, and cloud cover) and geomorphometric characteristics (latitude, longitude, elevation, lake surface area, maximum depth, mean depth, and volume) that influence lake surface temperatures were compiled for each lake. This unique dataset offers an invaluable baseline perspective on global-scale lake thermal conditions as environmental change continues