An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate

General public awareness and views of community pharmacy services in Scotland: the 'first port of call' study.

Background: The recently published 'Achieving Excellence in Pharmaceutical Care: a Strategy for Scotland' urges community pharmacy (CP) to make itself the 'first port of call' for healthcare advice. Purpose: To explore the Scottish general public's awareness of CP services and their openness to consider CP their 'first port of call' for health care advice. Methods: A Scotland-wide survey was administered up to 20 times in each of 117 CPs by pre-registration pharmacy graduates. It included Likert scales of attitudinal statements with items developed from existing literature. Ethical approval had been gained. Results: To date, the 2260 surveys have been completed from 117 CPs giving a response rate of 96.5%. Varying ages and standards of health are represented. Respondents were aware CPs 'are contracted to the NHS' (87.4%) and that 'pharmacists with an additional qualification can diagnose and prescribe' (53.3%). 87.6% would likely/very likely view CP as their 'First port of Call' for common illnesses. However, 71.4% were unlikely/very unlikely to approach CP with 'more serious symptoms'. Intentions for 'monitor or review of regular medicines' were less clear (unlikely/very unlikely (38.2%) against likely/very likely (35.1%)). 44% lacked an awareness of CP services in general. 75.3% indicated the pharmacist 'should have access to read and update relevant parts of my electronic health record' and pharmacist access to electronic records would make 67.8% more likely to view CP as a 'first port of call' for health issues. Conclusions: This Scotland-wide survey indicated the general public's positivity and openness to access community pharmacy services, however, being recognised as a 'First Port of Call' may require awareness raising

Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.publishedVersio

The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6

Earth System models enable a broad range of climate interactions that physical climate models are unable to simulate. However, the extent to which adding Earth System components changes or improves the simulation of the physical climate is not well understood. Here we present a broad multi-variate evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in historical simulations of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) performed for CMIP6. In particular, we focus on the mean state and the decadal timescale evolution of important variables that span the North Atlantic Climate system. In general, UKESM1 performs well and realistically simulates many aspects of the North Atlantic climate system. Like the physical version of the model, we find that changes in external forcing, and particularly aerosol forcing, are an important driver of multi-decadal change in UKESM1, especially for Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. However, many of the shortcomings identified are similar to common biases found in physical climate models, including the physical climate model that underpins UKESM1. For example, the summer jet is too weak and too far poleward; decadal variability in the winter jet is underestimated; intra-seasonal stratospheric polar vortex variability is poorly represented; and Arctic sea ice is too thick. Forced shortwave changes may be also too strong in UKESM1, which, given the important role of historical aerosol forcing in shaping the evolution of the North Atlantic in UKESM1, motivates further investigation. Therefore, physical model development, alongside Earth System development, remains crucial in order to improve climate simulations

Designated prescribing practitioners: a theory-based cross-sectional study of stakeholders' views on implementation of a novel pharmacy regulator mandated preceptorship model.

The Scottish Government is increasing independent prescribers (IP) in community pharmacy (CP). A new preceptorship model using IPs as Designated Prescribing Practitioners (DPPs) has been introduced. The aim of this study was to investigate stakeholder views of the implementation of a novel, regulator-mandated IP course preceptorship model. The research was undertaken through a theory-based, online pre-piloted survey of stakeholders, including e.g. directors of pharmacy, prescribing, education leads, policy and strategy leads, and CPs. Questionnaire development used the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) and a DPP Competency Framework. Data were analysed descriptively and presented with mapping to CFIR constructs. Of ninety-nine responses, 82.5% (80/97) responded "yes" to "...abilities in reporting concerns...", and 53.1% (51/96) indicating "no" to "...anticipated issues with clinical and diagnostic skills". CFIR-related facilitators included agreement that: a) there was tension for change, with 84 (85%) indicating an "...urgent need to implement role..."; b) incentives are likely to help (65, 66%); and c) small pilots would help (85, 88%). Barriers were evident, relating to "unsure" responses about sufficiency of: DPP capacity (39/97, 40.2%); time (48/96, 50%); and support and resources (44, 45%) to undertake the role. Concerns were expressed, with 81 (83%) in agreement or unsure that leadership commitment may be lacking, and 48 (48.9%) being "unsure" about the availability of good training for the DPP role. The study concluded that there was DPP role positivity, but that there were also barriers and facilitators at policy-, organisational- and individual practitioner levels, which need more consideration. Further research is warranted on the uptake and embedding of the role

Report on the 5th SPARC General Assembly

Beautiful Queestown, New Zealand, was hot to the nearly 300 scientists from around the globe that came together to participate in the 5th SPARC General Assembly in 2008 meant that a lot has happened since SPARC hat its last "family reunion" in Bologna, Italy. SPARC's evaluation has continued and its reach has extended to inluce aspects of the troposphere which have links with the stratospher

Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

International audienceMulti-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change