Reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: A case study at Gede (West Java)

Understanding past eruption dynamics at a volcano is crucial for forecasting the range of possible future eruptions and their associated hazards and risk. In this work we use numerical models to recreate the footprints of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) and tephra fall from three eruptions at Gede volcano, Indonesia, with the aim of gaining further insight into these past eruptions and identifying suitable eruption source parameters for future hazard and risk assessment. Gede has the largest number of people living within 100 km of any volcano worldwide, and has exhibited recent unrest activity, yet little is known about its eruptive history. For PDCs, we used Titan2D to recreate geological deposits dated at 1.2 and c. 1 kyrs BP. An objective and quantitative multi-criteria method was developed to evaluate the fit of 342 model simulations with field observations. In recreating the field deposits we were able to identify the best fitting values to reconstruct these eruptions. We found that the 1.2 kyrs BP geological deposits could be reproduced with Titan2D using either a dome-collapse or a column-collapse as the triggering mechanism, although a relatively low basal friction angle of 6° would suggest that the PDCs were highly mobile. For the 1 kyrs BP PDC, a column-collapse mechanism and a higher basal friction angle were required to fit the geological deposits. In agreement with previous studies, we found that Titan2D simulations were most sensitive to the basal friction angle parameter. We used Tephra2 to recreate historic observations of tephra dispersed to Jakarta and Gunung Patuha during the last known magmatic eruption of Gede in 1948. In the absence of observable field deposits, or detailed information from the published literature, we stochastically sampled eruption source parameters from wide ranges informed by analogous volcanic systems, allowing us to constrain the eruption dynamics capable of dispersing tephra to the most populous city in Indonesia, Jakarta. Our modelling suggests that the deposition of tephra fall in Jakarta during the November 1948 eruption was a very low probability event, with a < 1% chance of occurrence. Through this work, we show how the reconstruction of past eruptions with numerical models can improve our understanding of past eruption dynamics, when faced with epistemic uncertainty. At Gede volcano, this provides a crucial step towards the reduction of risk to nearby populations through volcanic hazard assessment

New Insights into Magma Differentiation and Storage in Holocene Crustal Reservoirs of the Lesser Sunda Arc: the Rinjani–Samalas Volcanic Complex (Lombok, Indonesia)

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The 1257 Samalas eruption (Lombok, Indonesia): the single greatest stratospheric gas release of the Common Era

International audienceLarge explosive eruptions inject volcanic gases and fine ash to stratospheric altitudes, contributing to global cooling at the Earth’s surface and occasionally to ozone depletion. The modelling of the climate response to these strong injections of volatiles commonly relies on ice-core records of volcanic sulphate aerosols. Here we use an independent geochemical approach which demonstrates that the great 1257 eruption of Samalas (Lombok, Indonesia) released enough sulphur and halogen gases into the stratosphere to produce the reported global cooling during the second half of the 13th century, as well as potential substantial ozone destruction. Major, trace and volatile element compositions of eruptive products recording the magmatic differentiation processes leading to the 1257 eruption indicate that Mt Samalas released 158 ± 12 Tg of sulphur dioxide, 227 ± 18 Tg of chlorine and a maximum of 1.3 ± 0.3 Tg of bromine. These emissions stand as the greatest volcanogenic gas injection of the Common Era. Our findings not only provide robust constraints for the modelling of the combined impact of sulphur and halogens on stratosphere chemistry of the largest eruption of the last millennium, but also develop a methodology to better quantify the degassing budgets of explosive eruptions of all magnitudes

Dynamics of the major plinian eruption of Samalas in 1257 A.D. (Lombok, Indonesia)

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Complex hazard cascade culminating in the Anak Krakatau sector collapse

Flank instability and sector collapses, which pose major threats, are common on volcanic islands. On 22 Dec 2018, a sector collapse event occurred at Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait, triggering a deadly tsunami. Here we use multiparametric ground-based and space-borne data to show that prior to its collapse, the volcano exhibited an elevated state of activity, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island's surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of its southwestern flank on a dipping decollement. Two minutes after a small earthquake, seismic signals characterize the collapse of the volcano's flank at 13:55 UTC. This sector collapse decapitated the cone-shaped edifice and triggered a tsunami that caused 430 fatalities. We discuss the nature of the precursor processes underpinning the collapse that culminated in a complex hazard cascade with important implications for the early detection of potential flank instability at other volcanoes

Downward-propagating eruption following vent unloading implies no direct magmatic trigger for the 2018 lateral collapse of Anak Krakatau

The lateral collapse of Anak Krakatau volcano, Indonesia, in December 2018 highlighted the potentially devastating impacts of volcanic edifice instability. Nonetheless, the trigger for the Anak Krakatau collapse remains obscure. The volcano had been erupting for the previous six months, and although failure was followed by intense explosive activity, it is the period immediately prior to collapse that is potentially key in providing identifiable, pre-collapse warning signals. Here, we integrate physical, microtextural and geochemical characterisation of tephra deposits spanning the collapse period. We demonstrate that the first post-collapse eruptive phase (erupting juvenile clasts with a low microlite areal number density and relatively large microlites, reflecting a crystal-growth dominated regime) is best explained by instantaneous unloading of a relatively stagnant upper conduit. This was followed by the second post-collapse phase, on a timescale of hours, which tapped successively hotter and deeper magma batches, reflected in increasing plagioclase anorthite content and more mafic glass compositions, alongside higher calculated ascent velocities and decompression rates. The characteristics of the post-collapse products imply downward propagating destabilisation of the magma storage system as a response to collapse, rather than pre-collapse magma ascent triggering failure. Importantly, this suggests that the collapse was a consequence of longer-term processes linked to edifice growth and instability, and that no indicative changes in the magmatic system could have signalled the potential for incipient failure. Therefore, monitoring efforts may need to focus on integrating short- and long-term edifice growth and deformation patterns to identify increased susceptibility to lateral collapse. The post-collapse eruptive pattern also suggests a magma pressurisation regime that is highly sensitive to surface-driven perturbations, which led to elevated magma fluxes after the collapse and rapid edifice regrowth. Not only does rapid regrowth potentially obscure evidence of past collapses, but it also emphasises the finely balanced relationship between edifice loading and crustal magma storage