Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present-day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing, RF) that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects, and land surface albedo. We attribute historical changes in terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo to LULCC using simulations with the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF of changes in atmospheric chemistry and aerosol concentrations attributed to LULCC. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 40% (+/- 16 %) of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We attribute total RFs between 0.9 and 1.9 W m(-2) to LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a preindustrial state). To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation budget, we include a fifth scenario in which all arable land is cultivated by 2100. This theoretical extreme case leads to a LULCC RF of 3.9 W m(-2) (+/- 0.9 W m(-2)), suggesting that not only energy policy but also land policy is necessary to minimize future increases in RF and associated climate changes

Particulate absorption of solar radiation: anthropogenic aerosols vs. dust

Particulate solar absorption is a critical factor in determining the value and even sign of the direct radiative forcing of aerosols. The heating to the atmosphere and cooling to the Earth’s surface caused by this absorption are hypothesized to have significant climate impacts. We find that anthropogenic aerosols play an important role around the globe in total particulate absorption of solar radiation. The global-average anthropogenic fraction in total aerosol absorbing optical depth exceeds 65% in all seasons. Combining the potentially highest dust absorption with the lowest anthropogenic absorption within our model range, this fraction would still exceed 47% in most seasons except for boreal spring (36%) when dust abundance reaches its peak. Nevertheless, dust aerosol is still a critical absorbing constituent over places including North Africa, the entire tropical Atlantic, and during boreal spring in most part of Eurasian continent. The equality in absorbing solar radiation of dust and anthropogenic aerosols appears to be particularly important over Indian subcontinent and nearby regions as well as North Africa.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (ATM-0329759)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX07AI49G)Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Chang

Global trends in visibility: implications for dust sources

There is a large uncertainty in the relative roles of human land use, climate change and carbon dioxide fertilization in changing desert dust source strength over the past 100 years, and the overall sign of human impacts on dust is not known. We used visibility data from meteorological stations in dusty regions to assess the anthropogenic impact on long term trends in desert dust emissions. We did this by looking at time series of visibility derived variables and their correlations with precipitation, drought, winds, land use and grazing. Visibility data are available at thousands of stations globally from 1900 to the present, but we focused on 357 stations with more than 30 years of data in regions where mineral aerosols play a dominant role in visibility observations. We evaluated the 1974 to 2003 time period because most of these stations have reliable records only during this time. We first evaluated the visibility data against AERONET aerosol optical depth data, and found that only in dusty regions are the two moderately correlated. Correlation coefficients between visibility-derived variables and AERONET optical depths indicate a moderate correlation (0.47), consistent with capturing about 20% of the variability in optical depths. Two visibility-derived variables appear to compare the best with AERONET observations: the fraction of observations with visibility less than 5 km (VIS5) and the surface extinction (EXT). Regional trends show that in many dusty places, VIS5 and EXT are statistically significantly correlated with the Palmer drought severity index (based on precipitation and temperature) or surface wind speeds, consistent with dust temporal variability being largely driven by meteorology. This is especially true for North African and Chinese dust sources, but less true in the Middle East, Australia or South America, where there are not consistent patterns in the correlations. Climate indices such as El Nino or the North Atlantic Oscillation are not correlated with visibility-derived variables in this analysis. There are few stations where visibility measures are correlated with cultivation or grazing estimates on a temporal basis, although this may be a function of the very coarse temporal resolution of the land use datasets. On the other hand, spatial analysis of the visibility data suggests that natural topographic lows are not correlated with VIS5 or EXT, but land use is correlated at a moderate level. This analysis is consistent with land use being important in some regions, but meteorology driving interannual variability during 1974–2003

The KO*-rings of BT^m, the Davis-Januszkiewicz Spaces and certain toric manifolds

This paper contains an explicit computation of the KO*-ring structure of an m-fold product of CP^{\infty}, the Davis-Januszkiewicz spaces and toric manifolds which have trivial Sq^2-homology.Comment: 34 page

Major impact of dust deposition on the productivity of the Arabian Sea

In the Arabian Sea (AS), spatiotemporal nutrient limitation patterns of primary production and the possible role of nutrient inputs from the atmosphere are still not well understood. Using a biogeochemical model forced by modeled aerosol deposition, we show that without high atmospheric iron inputs through dust deposition during the summer monsoon, primary production over the AS would be reduced by half. Atmospheric iron deposition also supports most of the nitrogen fixation over the AS. However, our ocean biogeochemistry modeling results suggest that dinitrogen fixation constitutes a negligible fraction of the primary production. Finally, we show that atmospheric inputs of nitrogen, mostly from anthropogenic activities in India, have a negligible impact on primary production

Atmospheric processing of iron in mineral and combustion aerosols: development of an intermediate-complexity mechanism suitable for Earth system models

Atmospheric processing of iron in dust and combustion aerosols is simulated using an intermediate-complexity soluble iron mechanism designed for Earth system models. The solubilization mechanism includes both a dependence on aerosol water pH and in-cloud oxalic acid. The simulations of size-resolved total, soluble and fractional iron solubility indicate that this mechanism captures many but not all of the features seen from cruise observations of labile iron. The primary objective was to determine the extent to which our solubility scheme could adequately match observations of fractional iron solubility. We define a semi-quantitative metric as the model mean at points with observations divided by the observational mean (MMO). The model is in reasonable agreement with observations of fractional iron solubility with an MMO of 0.86. Several sensitivity studies are performed to ascertain the degree of complexity needed to match observations; including the oxalic acid enhancement is necessary, while different parameterizations for calculating model oxalate concentrations are less important. The percent change in soluble iron deposition between the reference case (REF) and the simulation with acidic processing alone is 63.8%, which is consistent with previous studies. Upon deposition to global oceans, global mean combustion iron solubility to total fractional iron solubility is 8.2%; however, the contribution of fractional iron solubility from combustion sources to ocean basins below 15°S is approximately 50%. We conclude that, in many remote ocean regions, sources of iron from combustion and dust aerosols are equally important. Our estimates of changes in deposition of soluble iron to the ocean since preindustrial climate conditions suggest roughly a doubling due to a combination of higher dust and combustion iron emissions along with more efficient atmospheric processing

Short-Term Impacts of 2017 Western North American Wildfires On Meteorology, the Atmosphere\u27s Energy Budget, and Premature Mortality

Western North American fires have been increasing in magnitude and severity over the last few decades. The complex coupling of fires with the atmospheric energy budget and meteorology creates short-term feedbacks on regional weather altering the amount of pollution to which Americans are exposed. Using a combination of model simulations and observations, this study shows that the severe fires in the summer of 2017 increased atmospheric aerosol concentrations leading to a cooling of the air at the surface, reductions in sensible heat fluxes, and a lowering of the planetary boundary layer height over land. This combination of lower-boundary layer height and increased aerosol pollution from the fires reduces air quality. We estimate that from start of August to end of October 2017, ~400 premature deaths occurred within the western US as a result of short-term exposure to elevated PM2.5 from fire smoke. As North America confronts a warming climate with more fires the short-term climate and pollution impacts of increased fire activity should be assessed within policy aimed to minimize impacts of climate change on society

Potentially bioavailable iron delivery by iceberg-hosted sediments and atmospheric dust to the polar oceans

Iceberg-hosted sediments and atmospheric dust transport potentially bioavailable iron to the Arctic and Southern oceans as ferrihydrite. Ferrihydrite is nanoparticulate and more soluble, as well as potentially more bioavailable, than other iron (oxyhydr)oxide minerals (lepidocrocite, goethite, and hematite). A suite of more than 50 iceberghosted sediments contain a mean content of 0.076 wt% Fe as ferrihydrite, which produces iceberg-hosted Fe fluxes ranging from 0.7 to 5.5 and 3.2 to 25 Gmoles yr 1 to the Arctic and Southern oceans respectively. Atmospheric dust (with little or no combustion products) contains a mean ferrihydrite Fe content of 0.038 wt% (corresponding to a fractional solubility of 1 %) and delivers much smaller Fe fluxes (0.02–0.07 Gmoles yr 1 to the Arctic Ocean and 0.0– 0.02 Gmoles yr 1 to the Southern Ocean). New dust flux data show that most atmospheric dust is delivered to sea ice where exposure to melting/re-freezing cycles may enhance fractional solubility, and thus fluxes, by a factor of approximately 2.5. Improved estimates for these particulate sources require additional data for the iceberg losses during fjord transit, the sediment content of icebergs, and samples of atmospheric dust delivered to the polar regions

Radiative forcing of climate: the historical evolution of the radiative forcing concept, the forcing agents and their quantification, and applications

We describe the historical evolution of the conceptualization, formulation, quantification, application and utilization of “radiative forcing (RF, see e.g., IPCC, 1990)” of Earth’s climate. Basic theories of shortwave and long wave radiation were developed through the 19th and 20th centuries, and established the analytical framework for defining and quantifying the perturbations to the Earth’s radiative energy balance by natural and anthropogenic influences. The insight that the Earth’s climate could be radiatively forced by changes in carbon dioxide, first introduced in the 19th century, gained empirical support with sustained observations of the atmospheric concentrations of the gas beginning in 1957. Advances in laboratory and field measurements, theory, instrumentation, computational technology, data and analysis of well-mixed greenhouse gases and the global climate system through the 20th Century enabled the development and formalism of RF; this allowed RF to be related to changes in global-mean surface temperature with the aid of increasingly sophisticated models. This in turn led to RF becoming firmly established as a principal concept in climate science by 1990. The linkage with surface temperature has proven to be the most important application of the RF concept, enabling a simple metric to evaluate the relative climate impacts of different agents. The late 1970s and 1980s saw accelerated developments in quantification including the first assessment of the effect of the forcing due to doubling of carbon dioxide on climate (the “Charney” report, National Research Council, 1979). The concept was subsequently extended to a wide variety of agents beyond well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons) to short-lived species such as ozone. The WMO (1986) and IPCC (1990) international assessments began the important sequence of periodic evaluations and quantifications of the forcings by natural (solar irradiance changes and stratospheric aerosols resulting from volcanic eruptions) and a growing set of anthropogenic agents (WMGHGs, ozone, aerosols, land surface changes, contrails). From 1990s to the present, knowledge and scientific confidence in the radiative agents acting on the climate system has proliferated. The conceptual basis of RF has also evolved as both our understanding of the way radiative forcing drives climate change, and the diversity of the forcing mechanisms, have grown. This has led to the current situation where “Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF, e.g., IPCC, 2013)” is regarded as the preferred practical definition of radiative forcing in order to better capture the link between forcing and global-mean surface temperature change. The use of ERF, however, comes with its own attendant issues, including challenges in its diagnosis from climate models, its applications to small forcings, and blurring of the distinction between rapid climate adjustments (fast responses) and climate feedbacks; this will necessitate further elaboration of its utility in the future. Global climate model simulations of radiative perturbations by various agents have established how the forcings affect other climate variables besides temperature e.g., precipitation. The forcing-response linkage as simulated by models, including the diversity in the spatial distribution of forcings by the different agents, has provided a practical demonstration of the effectiveness of agents in perturbing the radiative energy balance and causing climate changes. The significant advances over the past half-century have established, with very high confidence, that the global-mean ERF due to human activity since preindustrial times is positive (the 2013 IPCC assessment gives a best estimate of 2.3 W m-2, with a range from 1.1 to 3.3 W m-2; 90% confidence interval). Further, except in the immediate aftermath of climatically-significant volcanic eruptions, the net anthropogenic forcing dominates over natural radiative forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless, the substantial remaining uncertainty in the net anthropogenic ERF leads to large uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity from observations and in predicting future climate impacts. The uncertainty in the ERF arises principally from the incorporation of the rapid climate adjustments in the formulation, the well-recognized difficulties in characterizing the preindustrial state of the atmosphere, and the incomplete knowledge of the interactions of aerosols with clouds. This uncertainty impairs the quantitative evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation pathways in the future. A grand challenge in Earth System science lies in continuing to sustain the relatively simple essence of the radiative forcing concept in a form similar to that originally devised, and at the same time improving the quantification of the forcing. This, in turn, demands an accurate, yet increasingly complex and comprehensive, accounting of the relevant processes in the climate system

Long-term nutrient enrichment, mowing, and ditch drainage interact in the dynamics of a wetland plant community.

This work was supported by NSF grants to Carol Goodwillie (DUE 126824 and DEB 1049291) and Ariane Peralta (DEB 1845845). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Fertilization studies have elucidated basic principles of the role of nutrients in shaping plant communities and demonstrated the potential effects of anthropogenic nutrient deposition. Yet less is known about how these effects are mediated by interacting ecological factors, particularly in nutrient-poor wetland habitats. In a long-term experiment in a coastal plain wetland, we examined how fertilization and mowing affected the diversity and composition of a plant community as it reestablished after major disturbance. A drainage ditch in proximity to the experimental plots allowed us also to consider the influence of hydrology and its interactions with nutrient addition. Fertilization decreased species richness, with wetland specialist species showing especially great losses, and several lines of evidence suggest that the effect was mediated by competition for light. Altered hydrology via ditch drainage had effects that were similar to fertilization, with more rapidly draining plots showing lower diversity and decreased abundance of wetland species. Plant community diversity and dynamics were influenced by complex interactions between fertilization, disturbance, and hydrology. The negative effect of fertilization on species richness was initially mitigated by mowing, but in later years was more evident in mowed than in unmowed plots. In the absence of disturbance, nutrient addition increased the rate of transition to primarily woody communities. Similarly, drained plots experienced increased rates of succession compared to wetter plots. Our results suggest that these interactions need to be considered to understand the potential effects of anthropogenic nutrient addition and hydrologic alterations to wetland ecosystems.ECU Open Access Publishing Support Fun