Identifying risk factors for the development of sepsis during adult severe malaria.

BACKGROUND: Severe falciparum malaria can be compounded by bacterial sepsis, necessitating antibiotics in addition to anti-malarial treatment. The objective of this analysis was to develop a prognostic model to identify patients admitted with severe malaria at higher risk of developing bacterial sepsis. METHODS: A retrospective data analysis using trial data from the South East Asian Quinine Artesunate Malaria Trial. Variables correlating with development of clinically defined sepsis were identified by univariable analysis, and subsequently included into a multivariable logistic regression model. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. Discrimination and goodness-of-fit were assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) and a calibration plot, respectively. RESULTS: Of the 1187 adults with severe malaria, 86 (7.3%) developed clinical sepsis during admission. Predictors for developing sepsis were: female sex, high blood urea nitrogen, high plasma anion gap, respiratory distress, shock on admission, high parasitaemia, coma and jaundice. The AUC of the model was 0.789, signifying modest differentiation for identifying patients developing sepsis. The model was well-calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi squared = 1.02). The 25th percentile of the distribution of risk scores among those who developed sepsis could identify a high-risk group with a sensitivity and specificity of 70.0 and 69.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed model identifies patients with severe malaria at risk of developing clinical sepsis, potentially benefiting from antibiotic treatment in addition to anti-malarials. The model will need further evaluation with more strictly defined bacterial sepsis as outcome measure

A Competing-Risk Approach for Modeling Length of Stay in Severe Malaria Patients in South-East Asia and the Implications for Planning of Hospital Services.

Background: Management of severe malaria with limited resources requires comprehensive planning. Expected length of stay (LOS) and the factors influencing it are useful in the planning and optimisation of service delivery. Methods: A secondary, competing-risk approach to survival analysis was performed for 1217 adult severe malaria patients from the South-East Asia Quinine Artesunate Malaria Trial. Results: Twenty percent of patients died; 95.4% within 7 days compared to 70.3% of those who were discharged. Median time to discharge was 6 days. Compared to quinine, artesunate increased discharge incidence (subdistribution-Hazard ratio, 1.24; [95% confidence interval 1.09-1.40]; P = .001) and decreased incidence of death (0.60; [0.46-0.80]; P < .001). Low Glasgow coma scale (discharge, 1.08 [1.06-1.11], P < .001; death, 0.85 [0.82-0.89], P < .001), high blood urea-nitrogen (discharge, 0.99 [0.99-0.995], P < .001; death, 1.00 [1.00-1.01], P = .012), acidotic base-excess (discharge, 1.05 [1.03-1.06], P < .001; death, 0.90 [0.88-0.93], P < .001), and development of shock (discharge, 0.25 [0.13-0.47], P < .001; death, 2.14 [1.46-3.12], P < .001), or coma (discharge, 0.46 [0.32-0.65], P < .001; death, 2.30 [1.58-3.36], P < .001) decreased cumulative incidence of discharge and increased incidence of death. Conventional Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimated cumulative incidence compared to competing-risk model. Conclusions: Clinical factors on admission and during hospitalisation influence LOS in severe malaria, presenting targets to improve health and service efficiency. Artesunate has the potential to increase LOS, which should be accounted for when planning services. In-hospital death is a competing risk for discharge; an important consideration in LOS models to reduce overestimation of risk and misrepresentation of associations

Prevalence and Risk Factors for Trachoma in Central and Southern Malawi

BACKGROUND: Trachoma, one of the neglected tropical diseases is suspected to be endemic in Malawi. OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of trachoma and associated risk factors in central and southern Malawi. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A population based survey conducted in randomly selected clusters in Chikwawa district (population 438,895), southern Malawi and Mchinji district (population 456,558), central Malawi. Children aged 1-9 years and adults aged 15 and above were assessed for clinical signs of trachoma. In total, 1010 households in Chikwawa and 1016 households in Mchinji districts were enumerated within 108 clusters (54 clusters in each district). A total of 6,792 persons were examined for ocular signs of trachoma. The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation, follicular (TF) among children aged 1-9 years was 13.6% (CI 11.6-15.6) in Chikwawa and 21.7% (CI 19.5-23.9) in Mchinji districts respectively. The prevalence of trachoma trichiasis (TT) in women and men aged 15 years and above was 0.6% (CI 0.2-0.9) in Chikwawa and 0.3% (CI 0.04-0.6) in Mchinji respectively. The presence of a dirty face was significantly associated with trachoma follicular (TF) in both Chikwawa and Mchinji districts (P10%), and warrants the trachoma SAFE control strategy to be undertaken in Chikwawa and Mchinji districts

Adjusted Risk Difference Estimation: An Assessment of Convergence Problems with Application to Malaria Efficacy Studies

A common measure of treatment effect in malaria efficacy studies is the risk difference, which can be estimated using binomial regression models. These models can fail to provide estimates, however, due to model failure or model convergence problems. Such failure most commonly occurs when the rate is close to 0% or 100% (a “boundary problem”) but can also occur occasionally even when the rate is not close to a boundary. This paper reports the findings from simulation studies performed to evaluate the factors that may contribute to model failure when using binomial regression to derive risk difference estimates. Convergence rates were found to fall: i) As one or both efficacy rates moved towards a boundary value, irrespective of the number of covariates included in the model; ii) As the numbers of covariates in the model increased; iii) As the levels of correlation between covariates the covariates increased. In all circumstances, convergence was poor when the efficacy rate in either group was 90% or more

Risk factors for Anopheles mosquitoes in rural and urban areas of Blantyre District, southern Malawi

BackgroundAlthough urban malaria transmission is low and seasonal, it remains a major public health problem. This study aimed at demonstrating the presence of Anopheles mosquitoes and their potential to transmit malaria in urban settings.MethodsTwo cross-sectional surveys were carried out in Blantyre District, Malawi, during the dry and wet seasons of 2008 and 2010, respectively. A map of Blantyre was divided into a grid of 400 cells, of which 60 cells were randomly selected. Five households located within 100 m from the centre of each selected cell were enrolled, a standard questionnaire was administered, and indoor resting mosquitoes were sampled.ResultsIn 2008 and 2010, a total of 960 and 1045 mosquitoes were collected,  respectively. Anopheles funestus comprised 9.9% (n = 95) and 10.3% (n = 108) during the two surveys, respectively. Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) was rarely detected during the second survey (n = 6; 0.6%). Molecular identification was performed on samples collected during the first survey, and An. funestus sensu stricto (s.s.) was the only sibling species detected. All the Anopheles mosquitoes were collected from households located in rural areas of Blantyre and none from urban areas. In univariate analysis, the presence of open eaves was associated with increased Anopheles prevalence, both during the dry (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 4.3; 95% CI 2.4 – 7.6) and wet (IRR = 2.47; 95% CI 1.7 – 3.59) seasons.  Chances of detecting Anopheles spp. decreased with increasing altitude (IRR = 0.996; 95% CI 0.995 – 0.997) and during the dry season, but increased during the wet season (IRR = 1.0017; 95% CI 1.0012 – 1.0023). These factors remained significant following a multiple Poisson regression analysis. No association was found between insecticide-treated bednet ownership and the number of Anopheles mosquitoes detected.ConclusionsThe presence of An. funestus s.s and An. gambiae s.l. in the periphery of Blantyre city was an indication that malaria transmission was potentially taking place in these areas

Identifying prognostic factors of severe metabolic acidosis and uraemia in African children with severe falciparum malaria: a secondary analysis of a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Severe metabolic acidosis and acute kidney injury are major causes of mortality in children with severe malaria but are often underdiagnosed in low resource settings. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the 'Artesunate versus quinine in the treatment of severe falciparum malaria in African children' (AQUAMAT) trial was conducted to identify clinical features of severe metabolic acidosis and uraemia in 5425 children from nine African countries. Separate models were fitted for uraemia and severe metabolic acidosis. Separate univariable and multivariable logistic regression were performed to identify prognostic factors for severe metabolic acidosis and uraemia. Both analyses adjusted for the trial arm. A forward selection approach was used for model building of the logistic models and a threshold of 5% statistical significance was used for inclusion of variables into the final logistic model. Model performance was assessed through calibration, discrimination, and internal validation with bootstrapping. RESULTS: There were 2296 children identified with severe metabolic acidosis and 1110 with uraemia. Prognostic features of severe metabolic acidosis among them were deep breathing (OR: 3.94, CI 2.51-6.2), hypoglycaemia (OR: 5.16, CI 2.74-9.75), coma (OR: 1.72 CI 1.17-2.51), respiratory distress (OR: 1.46, CI 1.02-2.1) and prostration (OR: 1.88 CI 1.35-2.59). Features associated with uraemia were coma (3.18, CI 2.36-4.27), Prostration (OR: 1.78 CI 1.37-2.30), decompensated shock (OR: 1.89, CI 1.31-2.74), black water fever (CI 1.58. CI 1.09-2.27), jaundice (OR: 3.46 CI 2.21-5.43), severe anaemia (OR: 1.77, CI 1.36-2.29) and hypoglycaemia (OR: 2.77, CI 2.22-3.46) CONCLUSION: Clinical and laboratory parameters representing contributors and consequences of severe metabolic acidosis and uraemia were independently associated with these outcomes. The model can be useful for identifying patients at high risk of these complications where laboratory assessments are not routinely available

Stavudine toxicity in adult longer-term ART patients in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Stavudine is an effective and inexpensive antiretroviral drug, but no longer recommended by WHO for first-line antiretroviral regimens in resource-limited settings due to toxicity concerns. Because of the high cost of alternative drugs, it has not been feasible to replace stavudine in most adults in the Malawi ART programme. We aimed to provide policy makers with a detailed picture of stavudine toxicities in Malawians on longer-term ART, in order to facilitate prioritization of stavudine replacement among other measures to improve the quality of ART programmes. METHODS: Prospective cohort of Malawian adults who had just completed one year of stavudine containing ART in an urban clinic, studying peripheral neuropathy, lipodystrophy, diabetes mellitus, high lactate syndromes, pancreatitis and dyslipidemia during 12 months follow up. Stavudine dosage was 30 mg irrespective of weight. Cox regression was used to determine associations with incident toxicities. RESULTS: 253 patients were enrolled, median age 36 years, 62.5% females. Prevalence rates (95%-confidence interval) of toxicities after one year on stavudine were: peripheral neuropathy 21.3% (16.5-26.9), lipodystrophy 14.7% (2.4-8.1), high lactate syndromes 0.0% (0-1.4), diabetes mellitus 0.8% (0-2.8), pancreatitis 0.0% (0-1.5). Incidence rates per 100 person-years (95%-confidence interval) during the second year on stavudine were: peripheral neuropathy 19.8 (14.3-26.6), lipodystrophy 11.4 (7.5-16.3), high lactate syndromes 2.1 (0.7-4.9), diabetes mellitus 0.4 (0.0-1.4), pancreatitis 0.0 (0.0-0.2). Prevalence of hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia increased from 12.1% to 21.1% and from 29.5% to 37.6% respectively between 12 and 24 months. 5.5% stopped stavudine, 1.3% died and 4.0% defaulted during follow up. Higher age was an independent risk factor for incident peripheral neuropathy and lipodystrophy. CONCLUSION: Stavudine associated toxicities continued to accumulate during the second year of ART, especially peripheral neuropathy and lipodystrophy and more so at increasing age. Our findings support investments for replacing stavudine in first-line regimens in sub-Saharan Africa

Pharmacokinetics and safety profile of artesunate-amodiaquine co-administered with antiretroviral therapy in malaria uninfected HIV-positive Malawian adults.

There are limited data on the pharmacokinetic and safety profiles of artesunate-amodiaquine in human immnunodeficiency virus infected (HIV+) individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy. In a two-step intensive sampling pharmacokinetic trial, we compared area under the concentration time curve from 0 to 28 days (AUC0-28 days) of an active metabolite of amodiaquine, desethylamodiaquine, and treatment-emergent adverse events between antiretroviral therapy naive HIV+ adults and those taking nevirapine and ritonavir-boosted lopinavir-based antiretroviral therapy. In step 1, malaria uninfected adults (n=6/arm) received half the standard adult treatment regimen of artesunate-amodiaquine. In step 2, another cohort (n=25/arm) received the full regimen. In step 1, there were no safety signals and significant differences in desethylamodiaquine AUC0-28 days among participants in the ritonavir-boosted lopinavir, nevirapine and antiretroviral therapy-naive arms. In step 2, compared with the antiretroviral therapy-naive arm, participants in the ritonavir-boosted lopinavir arm had 51% lower desethylamodiaquine AUC0-28 days, (geometric mean [95% CI]; 23,822 [17,458-32506] vs 48,617 [40,787-57,950] ng.hr/mL, p < 0.001). No significant differences in AUC0-28 days were observed between nevirapine and antiretroviral therapy-naïve arms. Treatment-emergent transaminitis was higher in the nevirapine (20% [5/25]) than the antiretroviral therapy naïve (0.0% [0/25]) arm (risk difference 20% [95% CI:4.3-35.7] p=0.018). Ritonavir-boosted lopinavir antiretroviral regimen was associated with reduced desethylamodiaquine exposure which may compromise artesunate-amodiaquine’s efficacy. Co-administration of nevirapine and artesunate amodiaquine may be associated with hepatoxicity

Old age is associated with decreased wealth in rural villages in Mtwara, Tanzania: findings from a cross‐sectional survey

Objective: In many countries housing is used for wealth accumulation and provides financial security in old age. We tested the hypothesis that household wealth, measured by housing quality and ownership of durable assets, would increase with age of the household head. Methods: e conducted a survey of household heads in 68 villages surrounding Mtwara town, Tanzania and recorded relevant demographic, housing, and social characteristics for each household. The primary analysis assessed the relationship between age of the household head, quality of the house structure and socio‐economic score (SES) using multivariate analysis. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was used as a data reduction tool to estimate the social‐economic status of subjects based on relevant variables that are considered as proxy for SES. Results: 13,250 household heads were surveyed of whom 49% were male. Those at least 50 years old were more likely to live in homes with an earth floor (86%) compared to younger household heads (80%; p<0.0001), wattle and daub walls (94% vs. 90%; p<0.0001) and corrugated iron roofs (56% vs. 52%; p<0.0001). Wealth accumulation in the villages included in the study tends to be an inverted V‐relationship with age. Housing quality and SES rose to a peak by 50 years and then rapidly decreased. Households with a large number of members were more likely to have better housing than smaller households. Conclusions: Housing plays a critical role in wealth accumulation and socio‐economic status of a household in rural villages in Tanzania. Households with a head under 50 years were more likely to live in improved housing and enjoyed a higher SES, than households with older heads. Larger families may provide protection against old age poverty in rural areas. Assuring financial security in old age, specifically robust and appropriate housing would have wide‐ranging benefits

Rabies surveillance in dogs in Lao PDR from 2010-2016.

BACKGROUND: Rabies is a fatal viral disease that continues to threaten both human and animal health in endemic countries. The Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is a rabies-endemic country in which dogs are the main reservoir and continue to present health risks for both human and animals throughout the country. METHODS: Passive, laboratory-based rabies surveillance was performed for suspected cases of dog rabies in Vientiane Capital during 2010-2016 and eight additional provinces between 2015-2016 using the Direct Fluorescent Antibody Test (DFAT). RESULTS: There were 284 rabies positive cases from 415 dog samples submitted for diagnosis. 257 cases were from Vientiane Capital (2010-2016) and the remaining 27 cases were submitted during 2015-2016 from Champassak (16 cases), Vientiane Province (4 cases), Xieng Kuang (3 cases), Luang Prabang (2 cases), Saravan (1 case), Saisomboun (1 case) and Bokeo (1 case). There was a significant increase in rabies cases during the dry season (p = 0.004) (November to April; i.e., <100mm of rainfall per month). No significant differences were noted between age, sex, locality of rabies cases. CONCLUSION: The use of laboratory-based rabies surveillance is a useful method of monitoring rabies in Lao PDR and should be expanded to other provincial centers, particularly where there are active rabies control programs