Predicción climática decadal global con el modelo EC-EARTH: avanzando hacia una predicción operativa en tiempo real [Presentación]

Presentación realizada en el VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción "Memorial Antonio Mestre", celebrado en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018

Predicción climática decadal global con el modelo EC-EARTH: avanzando hacia una predicción operativa en tiempo real

Ponencia presentada en: VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción, celebrado en los servicios centrales de AEMET, en Madrid, del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018.El departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra del Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (Barcelona Supercomputing Center; CNS-BSC) tiene una reconocida trayectoria en el campo de la predicción climática decadal, como atestigua su participación en los últimos dos intercambios de predicciones decadales multimodelo en tiempo real coordinadas por el MetOffice. En esta comunicación, presentaremos las próximas actividades del BSC en el contexto de CMIP6 (del inglés, Climate Model Intercomparison Project, 6th Phase) y que se engloban dentro de la iniciativa DCPP (del inglés, Decadal Climate Prediction Project). El BSC contribuirá con el modelo climático EC-Earth a la realización y análisis de la mayor parte de experimentos propuestos de «Tier 1», de los que destacamos: predicciones decadales retrospectivas por conjuntos desde 1960 hasta el presente; predicciones decadales en tiempo cuasi real inicializadas en 2018 y experimentos de sensibilidad para estudiar la predictibilidad, los mecanismos y los impactos climáticos asociados a las distintas fases de la AMV (del inglés, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability). También tenemos una larga experiencia con el modelo EC-Earth en predicción estacional, lo que nos permite testear y mejorar sistemáticamente nuestro sistema de predicción, así como desarrollar servicios climáticos específicos para fomentar la adaptación al cambio climático de sectores como la energía y la agricultura

Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C

The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5 °C. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5‐year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events

Modélisation globale des interactions atmosphère-aérosols

TOULOUSE3-BU Sciences (315552104) / SudocSudocFranceF

Impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the main climate variability modes

International audienc

Impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the main climate variability modes

Volcanic eruptions eject largeamounts of materials into the atmosphere, which can have an impact on climate. In particular, the sulphur dioxide gas released in the stratosphere leads to aerosol formation that reflects part of the incoming solar radiation, thereby affecting the climate energy balance. In this review paper, we analyse the regional climate imprints of large tropical volcanic explosive eruptions. For this purpose, we focus on the impact on three major climatic modes, located in the Atlantic (the North Atlantic Oscillation: NAO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: AMO) and Pacific (the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) sectors. We present an overview of the chain of events that contributes to modifying the temporal variability of these modes. Our literature review is complemented by new analyses based on observations of the instrumental era as well as on available proxy records and climate model simulations that cover the last millennium. We show that the impact of volcanic eruptions of the same magnitude or weaker than 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the NAO and ENSO is hard to detect, due to the noise from natural climate variability. There is however a clear impact of the direct radiative forcing resulting from tropical eruptions on the AMO index both in reconstructions and climate model simulations of the last millennium, while the impact on the ocean circulation remains model-dependent. To increase the signal to noise ratio and better evaluate the climate response to volcanic eruptions, improved reconstructions of these climatic modes and of the radiative effect of volcanic eruptions are required on a longer time frame than the instrumental era. Finally, we evaluate climate models' capabilities to reproduce the observed and anticipated impacts and mechanisms associated with volcanic forcing, and assess their potential for seasonal to decadal prediction. We find a very large spread in the simulated responses across the different climate models. Dedicated experimental designs and analyses are therefore needed to decipher the cause for this large uncertainty.This research was partly funded by the ANR MORDICUS project (ANR-13-SENV-0002-02). It is also funded by the SPECS project funded by the European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme under the grant agreement 308378 and by the EMBRACE project with research number 282672. To analyse the CMIP5 data, this study benefited from the IPSL Prodiguer-Ciclad facility, which is supported by CNRS, UPMC, Labex L-IPSL, which is funded by the ANR (grant # ANR-10-LABX-0018) and by the European FP7 IS-ENES2 project (grant # 312979). The research leading to these results has received funding from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) as part of the VOLCADEC project CGL2015-70177-R. We also thank Patrick Brockmann for help with the figure design and Eric Guilyardi for useful insights on the section dealing with ENSO. Finally, we acknowledge the comments from two reviewers that helped to clarify our arguments and complete the paper with some useful references.Peer Reviewe

Contrasting seasonal changes in total and intense precipitation in the European Alps from 1903 to 2010

Abstract. Changes of precipitation over the European Alps are investigated with the regional climate model MAR applied with a 7-km resolution over the period 1903–2010 using the reanalysis ERA-20C as forcing. A comparison with several observational datasets demonstrates that the model is able to reproduce the climatology as well as both the inter-annual variability and the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the European Alps. The relatively high resolution allows to estimate precipitation at high elevations. The vertical gradient of precipitation simulated by MAR over the European Alps reaches 33 % km−1 (1.21 mm.day−1.km−1) in summer and 38 % km−1 (1.15 mm.day−1.km−1) in winter, on average over 1971–2008 and shows a large spatial variability. A significant (p-value

Contrasting seasonal changes in temperature, precipitation and snow cover simulated over the European Alps during the twentieth century

International audienc

An International Case Control Study of Adult Diet and Brain Tumor Risk: A Histology-Specific Analysis by Food Group

PurposeExisting studies of diet and adult brain tumors have been limited by small numbers in histology-specific subgroups. Dietary data from an international collaborative case-control study on adult brain tumors were used to evaluate associations between histology-specific risk and consumption of specific food groups.MethodsThe study included 1548 cases diagnosed between 1984 and 1991 and 2486 control subjects from 8 study centers in 6 countries. Of the 1548 cases, 1185 were gliomas, 332 were meningiomas, and 31 were other tumor types. Dietary consumption was measured as average grams per day.ResultsWe found inverse associations between some vegetable groups and glioma risk, the strongest for yellow-orange vegetables (odds ratio [OR], 0.7, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-0.9 for the 4th vs. 1st quartile of consumption, p for trendConclusionsOur study suggests that selected dietary food groups may be associated with adult gliomas and its subtypes but not meningiomas.Mary Beth Terry, Geoffrey Howe, Janice M. Pogoda, Fang Fang Zhang, Anders Ahlbom, Won Choi, Graham G. Giles, Julian Little, Flora Lubin, Francoise Menegoz, Philip Ryan, Brigitte Schlehofer and Susan Preston-Martinhttp://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/505746/description#descriptio