Atlantic Multidecadal Variability modulates the climate impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Australia

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) modulates El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. Here, we explore the effect of warm (AMV+) and cold (AMV-) AMV conditions on the austral summer teleconnection of ENSO to Australia using idealized simulations performed with the NCAR-CESM1 model. AMV+ strengthens the mean and extreme precipitation and temperature responses to El Niño in south-western Australia and weakens the mean precipitation and temperature impacts in north-eastern Australia. The modulation of La Niña impacts by AMV is asymmetric to El Niño, with a weakening of the mean and extreme precipitation and temperature responses in eastern Australia. Decomposing the total difference in ENSO response between AMV phases, we find that the signals are mainly explained by the direct AMV modulation of ENSO and its teleconnections rather than by changes in background climate induced by AMV. The exception is ENSO-driven fire impacts, where there is a significant increase in burned area in south-eastern Australia only when El Niño and AMV+ co-occur. However, modulation of ENSO between AMV+ and AMV- does offset ~37% of the decrease in burned area extent during La Niña summers. The altered surface climate response to ENSO in Australia by AMV is attributed to variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation. Under AMV+, there is increased subsidence over western Australia during El Niño associated with a westward shift of the local Walker circulation. A weakening of the upwelling branch of the local Hadley circulation over north-eastern Australia is responsible for the weakening of La Niña impacts in AMV+, accompanied by a strengthening of subsidence in south central Australia due to a weakening of the local Hadley circulation, amplifying La Niña impacts over this region. The results suggest the potential for AMV to drive multidecadal variability in ENSO impacts over Australia.P.T.-C. was supported by a PhD scholarship from the Natural Environment Research Council PANORAMA Doctoral Training Partnership (NE/S007458/1). Y.R.-R. received the support of a fellowship from ”la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434) and from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 847648. The fellowship code is LCF/BQ/PR21/11840016. A.C.M. was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN project) and The Leverhulme Trust (PLP-2018-278). M.T. acknowledges funding by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the Ramón y Cajal Grant Reference RYC2019-027115-I and through the project ONFIRE, grant PID2021-123193OB-I00, funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. Computing facilities were provided by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and the University of LeedsPeer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Global warming and ocean stratification: a potential result of large extraterrestrial impacts

The prevailing paradigm for the climatic effects of large asteroid or comet impacts is a reduction in sunlight and significant short-term cooling caused by atmospheric aerosol loading. Here we show, using global climate model experiments, that the large increases in stratospheric water vapor that can occur upon impact with the ocean, cause radiative forcings of over +20 Wm-2 in the case of 10-km sized bolides. The result of such a positive forcing is rapid climatic warming, increased upper-ocean stratification and potentially disruption of upper-ocean ecosystems. Since two thirds of the world’s surface is ocean, we suggest that some bolide impacts may actually warm climate overall. For impacts producing both stratospheric water vapor and aerosol loading, radiative forcing by water vapor can reduce or even cancel out aerosol-induced cooling, potentially causing 1-2 decades of increased temperatures in both the upper ocean and on the land surface. Such a response, which depends on the ratio of aerosol to water vapor radiative forcing, is distinct from many previous scenarios for the climatic effects of large bolide impacts, which mostly account for cooling from aerosol loading. Finally, we discuss how water vapor forcing from bolide impacts may have contributed to two well known phenomena: extinction across the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary, and the deglaciation of the Neoproterozoic snowball Earth

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html.Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and also by the EU project SPECS funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme under the grant agreement 308378 (Met Office Hadley Centre authors), by the NERC National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) Climate directorate (L.J.G. and A.C.M.), an ERC ACCI grant (A.C.M) and an AXA Postdoctoral Fellowship (A.C.M.)

Sustained intensification of the Aleutian Low induces weak tropical Pacific sea surface warming

It has been proposed that externally forced trends in the Aleutian Low can induce a basin-wide Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response that projects onto the pattern of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). To investigate this hypothesis, we apply local atmospheric nudging in an intermediate-complexity climate model to isolate the effects of an intensified winter Aleutian Low sustained over several decades. An intensification of the Aleutian Low produces a basin-wide SST response with a similar pattern to the model's internally generated PDO. The amplitude of the SST response in the North Pacific is comparable to the PDO, but in the tropics and southern subtropics the anomalies induced by the imposed Aleutian Low anomaly are a factor of 3 weaker than for the internally generated PDO. The tropical Pacific warming peaks in boreal spring, though anomalies persist year-round. A heat budget analysis shows the northern subtropical Pacific SST response is predominantly driven by anomalous surface turbulent heat fluxes in boreal winter, while in the equatorial Pacific the response is mainly due to meridional heat advection in boreal spring. The propagation of anomalies from the extratropics to the tropics can be explained by the seasonal footprinting mechanism, involving the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. The results show that low-frequency variability and trends in the Aleutian Low could contribute to basin-wide anomalous Pacific SST, but the magnitude of the effect in the tropical Pacific, even for the extreme Aleutian Low forcing applied here, is small. Therefore, external forcing of the Aleutian Low is unlikely to account for observed decadal SST trends in the tropical Pacific in the late 20th and early 21st centuries

Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information

This chapter assesses simulations of future global climate change, spanning time horizons from the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long term (2081–2100) out to the year 2300. Changes are assessed relative to both the recent past (1995–2014) and the 1850–1900 approximation to the pre-industrial period

Do split and displacement sudden stratospheric warmings have different annular mode signatures?

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) contribute to intraseasonal tropospheric forecasting skill due to their surface impacts. Recent studies suggest these impacts depend upon whether the polar vortex splits or is displaced during the SSW. We analyse the annular mode signatures of SSWs in a 1000 year IPSL-CM5A-LR simulation. Although small differences in the mean surface Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index following splits and displacements are found, the sign is not consistent for two independent SSW algorithms, and over 50 events are required to distinguish the responses. We use the winter-time correlation between extratropical lower stratospheric wind anomalies and the surface NAM index as a metric for two-way stratosphere-troposphere coupling, and find that the differences between splits and displacements, and between classification methodologies, can be simply understood in terms of their mean stratospheric wind anomalies. Predictability studies should therefore focus on understanding the factors that determine the persistence of these anomalies following SSWs

Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends

Simulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979–2016 in models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative are compared with recently updated and extended satellite data sets. The multimodel mean global temperature trends over 1979–2005 are -0.88 ± 0.23, -0.70 ± 0.16, and -0.50 ± 0.12 K/decade for the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) channels 3 (~40–50 km), 2 (~35–45 km), and 1 (~25–35 km), respectively (with 95% confidence intervals). These are within the uncertainty bounds of the observed temperature trends from two reprocessed SSU data sets. In the lower stratosphere, the multimodel mean trend in global temperature for the Microwave Sounding Unit channel 4 (~13–22 km) is -0.25 ± 0.12 K/decade over 1979–2005, consistent with observed estimates from three versions of this satellite record. The models and an extended satellite data set comprised of SSU with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998–2016 compared to the period of intensive ozone depletion (1979–1997). This is due to the reduction in ozone-induced cooling from the slowdown of ozone trends and the onset of ozone recovery since the late 1990s. In summary, the results show much better consistency between simulated and satellite-observed stratospheric temperature trends than was reported by Thompson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579) for the previous versions of the SSU record and chemistry-climate models. The improved agreement mainly comes from updates to the satellite records; the range of stratospheric temperature trends over 1979–2005 simulated in Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative models is comparable to the previous generation of chemistry-climate models