8 research outputs found
Estimation of the prevalence of chronic kidney disease: The results of a model based estimation in Kerman, Iran
Background: Chronic kidney disease is asymptomatic until its last stages and though it is increasing globally,
we are faced with paucity of a population-based model to assess this disease, particularly in developing countries.
Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and trends of CKD according to a new estimation
method.
Methods: Using multiplier method, we estimated the numbers of different stages of CKD based on the number
of patients with end stage renal failure from 2006 to 2016. The required multipliers were extracted from a simulation
of the disease in Kerman following a dynamic model. The 95% uncertainty interval was computed using
Monte-Carlo technique with 10,000 iterations.
Results: The prevalence of CKDA (GFR<=90mL/min/1.73m2) and CKDB (GFR less than 60mL/min/1.73m2)
patients were estimated to be 7.6% (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 5.7-9.1%) and 1.1% (95% UI, 0.8-1.3%),
respectively in 2011. The method revealed that the prevalence may rise up to 25.7% (95% UI, 18.2-32.5%) and
3.7% (95% UI, 2.7-4.5%) for CKDA and CKDB, respectively in 2016, indicating approximately 3.3 times increase
for both figures.
Conclusion: This study predicted an increase in the prevalence of CKD in the future. This may be due to the
increasing life expectancy of the population, the increase in the prevalence of non- communicable diseases such
as hypertension and diabetes, or patients’ survival due to receiving better support. Therefore, the policymakers
should be concerned and well informed about this increase
Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe
Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
The Impact of Social Structures on Deviant Behaviors: The Study of 402 High Risk Street Drug Users in Iran
This study is a sociological analysis of the three dimensions of social structure including institutional, relational, and embodied structures that have an impact on the individuals’ deviant behaviors in the society. The authors used a mix method to analyze the qualitative and quantitative data of 402 high risk abandoned substance users in 2008 in Tehran, capital city of Iran. The leading reasons of substance use were categorized into four fundamental themes as follows: stress, deviant social networks, and low social capital and weak social support sources. In addition, the epidemiology model of regression analysis provides a brief explanation to assess the association between the demographical and etiological variables, and the drug users’ deviant behaviors. In sum, substance use is discussed as a deviant behavior pattern which stems from a comorbidity of weak social structures
Sa1141 – Validation and Comparison of Tools for Selecting Individuals for Screening for Barrett's Esophagus and Early Neoplasia
Incomplete Response of Gastroesophageal Reflux Symptoms Poorly Predicts Erosive Esophagitis or Barrett’s Esophagus
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% 47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% 32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% 27.9-42.8] and 33.3% 25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license