As contribuições post keynesianas sobre as expectativas numa economia monetária

Neste artigo propomo-nos estudar as contribuições que um conjunto de autores da corrente post keynesiana tem feito para esclarecer o sentido e o significado da noção de expectativa seja no quadro teórico como também no quadro político. A influência das expectativas, a tomada de decisões em situação de incerteza e de ignorância são uma contribuição específica de J.M.Keynes, que encontrem um lugar central na Teoria Geral, sem a qual a teoria da procura efectiva e as leis psicológicas fundamentais não adquirem a dimensão de estrutura fundamental da nova teoria. Keynes argumentava frequentemente de forma extrema quando pretendia enfatizar um determinado problema, mas pensava que o sistema capitalista era instável porque a teoria económica que sustentava a política económica era incapaz de conduzir à acção correcta e desejada. Em consequência, podemos dizer que estes autores não apenas pretendem interpretar Keynes, como procuram traçar uma via de modelização em que a metodologia de Keynes adquire todo o seu significado. Keynes propun-ha-se analisar uma economia monetária, onde não existe previsão perfeita nem certeza, em que o futuro não é conhe-cido, nem existe probabilidade matemática que permita prog-nosticar a existência de mercados com preços futuros. A corrente que Shackle, Kregel e outros representam tem a virtude de ter recolocado no lugar certo a importância das expectativas. O artigo divide-se em duas partes. Na primeira examinamos a contribuição de Shackle para a interpretação do significado das expectativas num quadro de incerteza, complementada com as observações de Kregel sobre o papel da incerteza na política económica. Numa segunda parte consideramos as contribuições de Davidson para o significado dos motivos de procura de moeda num quadro de incerteza, complementado com as apreciações de Minsky sobre a volatibilidade das expectativas num quadro de instabilidade financeira.Teoria monetária; Incerteza; Expectativas; Estabilidade Económica; Investimento; Procura Efectiva.

O investimento português no Brasil e os desafios de uma lógica ibérica

This paper focuses on the Portuguese direct investments carried out in Brazil in the 1990’s, seeking to highlight the Iberian logic underlying them. This view draws on the fact that the profile and strategy of these investments are akin to those of the Spanish investments undertaken in the 1980’s, even though the latter were directed at the whole of South America — particularly the countries of the so-called “South Cone” — and had a quite disparate relative weight. We begin by providing an outline of the Portuguese economy and its place in the European and world economies, so as to identify the correlation between the nature of Portuguese direct investments abroad and the limits and potentialities of its competitiveness, as well as the transformations undergone by this economy in recent times.Este artigo tem por objetivo a análise dos investimentos portugueses no Brasil, nos anos 90, onde é assinalada a existência de uma lógica ibérica. Essa perspectiva deriva de que, para além de seu peso relativo, o perfil e a estratégia desses investimentos seguem um caminho semelhante ao dos espanhóis iniciado nos anos 80, embora estes últimos se tenham dirigido à generalidade dos países latino-americanos, particularmente no Cone Sul. A análise parte do quadro mais geral da economia portuguesa e de sua inserção na União Européia e na economia mundial, tendo em vista a correlação entre a natureza dos investimentos no estrangeiro e os limites e as possibilidades em termos da sua competitividade e das transformações na economia a partir dos critérios de especialização que lhe são característicos. Palavras-chave Investimentos ibéricos; relações econômicas luso-brasileiras; União Européia e Mercosul

Categorizando la presencia cognitiva en la no presencialidad

El proyecto, aún en curso, forma parte de la convocatoria 2007 de la Secretaría de Ciencia y Técnica de la Universidad Nacional de San Juan.Tiene como objetivos Generales: • Producir constructos teóricos que validen una propuesta superadora en el campo de la formación no-presencial en el nivel superior. • Conocer acerca de las categorías que constituyen la “presencia cognitiva” en el campus virtual. • Evaluar la conformación de la presencia cognitiva, social y docente en el desarrollo de la dinámica grupal en los espacios del aula virtual.La experiencia explora elementos estructurales que configuran un aula virtual como facilitadores u obstaculizadores de la presencia cognitiva en la construcción colaborativa de saberes. Para ello se intenta probar la aplicación de las categorías de la “presencia cognitiva” propuestas por Garrison, Anderson, Archer y Rourke (2001) en nuestro sistema de formación no-presencial para el nivel superior. La aplicación de estas categorías se realiza sobre las actividades llevadas a cabo por docentes de la UNSJ en dos propuestas pedagógicas que fueron rediseñadas desarrolladas e implementadas para la oportunidad; se trata del “Curso de formación de formadores” y El Seminario de Posgrado “Los desafíos de la Formación en entornos virtuales” que fueron parte de las actividades realizadas en el marco del Proyecto ANTICFO “Nuevas Tecnologías de la información aplicadas a la Educación ” 2000 a 2007

Climate Risks and Reasons for Concern along the Uruguayan Coast of the Rio de la Plata Estuary

The Uruguayan coast of the Río de la Plata river estuary (RdlP) is 300 km long. It encompasses an inner tidal river and a middle and an outer estuary. The RdlP is a micro-tidal system dominated by river inflow from the Paraná and Uruguay rivers and southern winds with increasingly frequent wind-induced storm surges impacting the coast. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation influences the river inflow, prevailing winds, water/sea level and beach erosion. First, we focus on the IPCC Reasons for Concern (RFC) about the trends of climate risks threatening the Uruguayan coast. The trends and maxima of air temperature, water/sea levels and river inflow in three coastal stations from 1980 to 2019 show temporal changes attributable to climate change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The occurrence, evolution and Montecarlo simulations of return periods of the yearly river flow and sea level height maxima provide metrics of RFC to categorise the climate risks from past to projected future and the level of risk from undetectable to very high. Then, we summarise some current and expected climate risks and present the current adaptation framework and some expected impacts. The RFC has increased, reaching moderate to high-risk levels

Brain clocks capture diversity and disparities in aging and dementia across geographically diverse populations

Peer reviewe

Association Between Preexisting Versus Newly Identified Atrial Fibrillation and Outcomes of Patients With Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) may exist before or occur early in the course of pulmonary embolism (PE). We determined the PE outcomes based on the presence and timing of AF. Methods and Results Using the data from a multicenter PE registry, we identified 3 groups: (1) those with preexisting AF, (2) patients with new AF within 2 days from acute PE (incident AF), and (3) patients without AF. We assessed the 90-day and 1-year risk of mortality and stroke in patients with AF, compared with those without AF (reference group). Among 16 497 patients with PE, 792 had preexisting AF. These patients had increased odds of 90-day all-cause (odds ratio [OR], 2.81; 95% CI, 2.33-3.38) and PE-related mortality (OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.37-4.14) and increased 1-year hazard for ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 5.48; 95% CI, 3.10-9.69) compared with those without AF. After multivariable adjustment, preexisting AF was associated with significantly increased odds of all-cause mortality (OR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.57-2.32) but not PE-related mortality (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 0.85-2.66). Among 16 497 patients with PE, 445 developed new incident AF within 2 days of acute PE. Incident AF was associated with increased odds of 90-day all-cause (OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.75-2.97) and PE-related (OR, 3.64; 95% CI, 2.01-6.59) mortality but not stroke. Findings were similar in multivariable analyses. Conclusions In patients with acute symptomatic PE, both preexisting AF and incident AF predict adverse clinical outcomes. The type of adverse outcomes may differ depending on the timing of AF onset.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress