Quantifying the latitudinal representivity of in situ solar wind observations

Advanced space-weather forecasting relies on the ability to accurately predict near-Earth solar wind conditions. For this purpose, physics-based, global numerical models of the solar wind are initialized with photospheric magnetic field and coronagraph observations, but no further observation constraints are imposed between the upper corona and Earth orbit. Data assimilation (DA) of the available in situ solar wind observations into the models could potentially provide additional constraints, improving solar wind reconstructions, and forecasts. However, in order to effectively combine the model and observations, it is necessary to quantify the error introduced by assuming point measurements are representative of the model state. In particular, the range of heliographic latitudes over which in situ solar wind speed measurements are representative is of primary importance, but particularly difficult to assess from observations alone. In this study we use 40+ years of observation-driven solar wind model results to assess two related properties: the latitudinal representivity error introduced by assuming the solar wind speed measured at a given latitude is the same as that at the heliographic equator, and the range of latitudes over which a solar wind measurement should influence the model state, referred to as the observational localisation. These values are quantified for future use in solar wind DA schemes as a function of solar cycle phase, measurement latitude, and error tolerance. In general, we find that in situ solar wind speed measurements near the ecliptic plane at solar minimum are extremely localised, being similar over only 1° or 2° of latitude. In the uniform polar fast wind above approximately 40° latitude at solar minimum, the latitudinal representivity error drops. At solar maximum, the increased variability of the solar wind speed at high latitudes means that the latitudinal representivity error increases at the poles, though becomes greater in the ecliptic, as long as moderate speed errors can be tolerated. The heliospheric magnetic field and solar wind density and temperature show very similar behaviour

Towards construction of a solar wind “reanalysis” dataset: application to the first perihelion pass of parker solar probe

Accurate reconstruction of global solar-wind structure is essential for connecting remote and in situ observations of solar plasma, and hence understanding formation and release of solar wind. Information can routinely be obtained from photospheric magnetograms, via coronal and solar-wind modelling, and directly from in situ observations, typically at large heliocentric distances (most commonly near 1 AU). Magnetogram-constrained modelling has the benefit of reconstructing global solar-wind structure, but with relatively large spatial and/or temporal errors. In situ observations, on the other hand, make accurate temporal measurements of solar-wind structure, but are highly localised. We here use a data assimilative (DA) approach to combine these two sources of information as a first step towards producing a solar-wind “reanalysis” dataset that optimally combines model and observation. The physics of solar wind stream interaction is used to extrapolate in heliocentric distance, while the assumption of steady-state solar-wind structure enables extrapolation in longitude. The major challenge is extrapolating in latitude. Using solar-wind speed during the interval of the first perihelion pass of Parker Solar Probe (PSP) in November 2018 as a test bed, we investigate two approaches. The first is to assume the solar wind is two-dimensional and thus has no latitudinal structure within the ±7∘ bounded by the heliographic equatorial and ecliptic planes. The second assumes in situ solar-wind observations are representative of some (small) latitudinal range. We show how observations of the inner heliosphere, such as will be provided by PSP, can be exploited to constrain the latitudinal representivity of solar-wind observations to improve future solar-wind reconstruction and space-weather forecasting

Campus Vol IV N 4

Lang, Pete. The Rain . Prose. 2. Chase Jr., Richard and Jack K. Matthews Jr. Fitz and the Field house . Picture. 3. Gould, Jim. After Graduation day . Prose. 4. Runkle, Pete. As We Danced Off Both our Shoes . Prose. 5. Hawk, Bob. Fields of Concentration For Seniors! . Cartoon. 6. De Lackner, Barbara. Spring fever . Poem. 8. Goodwin, Joyce. Would That Time Were A . Poem. 8. Ward, Nancy. It Was Fall . Poem. 8. Rounds, Dave. Untitled. Cartoon. 8. Johnston, Ed. Campus Casuals . Prose. 9. Gilbert, Ralph. Campus Progress Report . Picture. 10. Rounds, Dave. Untitled. cartoon. 12

Improving solar wind forecasting using data assimilation

Data Assimilation (DA) has enabled huge improvements in the skill of terrestrial operational weather forecasting. In this study, we use a variational DA scheme with a computationally efficient solar wind model and in situ observations from STEREO-A, STEREO-B and ACE. This scheme enables solar-wind observations far from the Sun, such as at 1 AU, to update and improve the inner boundary conditions of the solar wind model (at $30$ solar radii). In this way, observational information can be used to improve estimates of the near-Earth solar wind, even when the observations are not directly downstream of the Earth. This allows improved initial conditions of the solar wind to be passed into forecasting models. To this effect, we employ the HUXt solar wind model to produce 27-day forecasts of the solar wind during the operational lifetime of STEREO-B (01 November 2007 - 30 September 2014). In near-Earth space, we compare the accuracy of these DA forecasts with both non-DA forecasts and simple corotation of STEREO-B observations. We find that $27$-day root mean-square error (RMSE) for STEREO-B corotation and DA forecasts are comparable and both are significantly lower than non-DA forecasts. However, the DA forecast is shown to improve solar wind forecasts when STEREO-B's latitude is offset from Earth, which is an issue for corotation forecasts. And the DA scheme enables the representation of the solar wind in the whole model domain between the Sun and the Earth to be improved, which will enable improved forecasting of CME arrival time and speed

Sustainable Diets: another hurdle or a better food future?,

The notion of sustainable diets has emerged forcibly onto the food policy agenda in recent years, but has also met resistance. The article reviews the case for sustainable diets. It counterbalances the current dominant policy emphasis on raising food output as the best route to a sustainable food future. The article suggests that a process of democratic experimentation is underway. Some official guidelines have emerged alongside a mix of civil society and academic formulations. More coherence of data, principles and purpose is needed at the global and regional policy-making levels for these to become effective in the common task of reducing the food system’s negative impact on health, environment and economies

Solar wind data assimilation in an operational context: use of near‐real‐time data and the forecast value of an L5 monitor

For accurate and timely space weather forecasting, advanced knowledge of the ambient solar wind is required, both for its direct impact on the magnetosphere and for accurately forecasting the propagation of coronal mass ejections to Earth. Data assimilation (DA) combines model output and observations to form an optimum estimation of reality. Initial experiments with assimilation of in situ solar wind speed observations suggest the potential for significant improvement in the forecast skill of near-Earth solar wind conditions. However, these experiments have assimilated science-quality observations, rather than near-real-time (NRT) data that would be available to an operational forecast scheme. Here, we assimilate both NRT and science observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and near-Earth observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer and Deep Space Climate Observatory spacecraft. We show that solar wind speed forecasts using NRT data are comparable to those based on science-level data. This suggests that an operational solar wind DA scheme would provide significant forecast improvement, with reduction in the mean absolute error of solar wind speed around 46% over forecasts without DA. With a proposed space weather monitor planned for the L5 Lagrange point, we also quantify the solar wind forecast gain expected from L5 observations alongside existing observations from L1. This is achieved using configurations of the STEREO and L1 spacecraft. There is a 15% improvement for forecast lead times of less than 5 days when observations from L5 are assimilated alongside those from L1, compared to assimilation of L1 observations alone

Report of the 2011-2012 Standing Committee on Advocacy: The Relevance of Excellent Research: Strategies for Impacting Public Policy

According to the Bylaws of the American Association of Colleges of Pharmacy (AACP), the Advocacy Committee

Imposing compulsory rugby union on school children: An analysis of English state-funded secondary schools.

To establish the extent to which Rugby Union was a compulsory physical education activity in state-funded secondary schools in England and to understand the views of Subject Leaders for Physical Education with respect to injury risk. A cross-sectional research study using data obtained under the Freedom of Information Act (2000) from 288 state-funded secondary schools. Rugby Union was delivered in 81% ( = 234 of 288) of state-funded secondary school physical education curricula, including 83% ( = 229 of 275) of state-funded secondary school boys' and 54% ( = 151 of 282) of girls' physical education curricular. Rugby Union was compulsory in 91% ( = 208 of 229) of state-funded secondary schools that delivered it as part of the boys' physical education curriculum and 54% ( = 82 of 151) of state-funded secondary schools that delivered contact Rugby Union as part of the girls' physical education curriculum. Subject Leaders for Physical Education also perceived Rugby Union to have the highest risk of harm of the activities they delivered in their school physical education curriculum. Notwithstanding discussions of appropriate measures (i.e., mandatory concussion training, Rugby Union specific qualifications and CPD) to reduce injury risk, it is recommended that Rugby Union should not be a compulsory activity given that it has a perceived high risk of injury and is an unnecessary risk for children in physical education. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2022 White, Batten, Howarth, Magrath, Piggin, Millward, Parry, Lang, Bullingham, Pearce, Morales, Turner, Humphries, Hardwicke, Anderson, Kirkwood and Pollock.

Can plastid genome sequencing be used for species identification in the Lauraceae?

Using DNA barcoding for species identification remains challenging for many plant groups. New sequencing approaches such as complete plastid genome sequencing may provide some increased power and practical benefits for species identification beyond standard plant DNA barcodes. We undertook a case study comparing standard DNA barcoding to plastid genome sequencing for species discrimination in the ecologically and economically important family Lauraceae, using 191 plastid genomes for 131 species from 25 genera, representing the largest plastome data set for Lauraceae to date. We found that the plastome sequences were useful in correcting some identification errors and for finding new and cryptic species. However, plastome data overall were only able to discriminate c. 60% of the species in our sample, with this representing a modest improvement from 40 to 50% discrimination success with the standard plant DNA barcodes. Beyond species discrimination, the plastid genome sequences revealed complex relationships in the family, with 12/25 genera being non-monophyletic and with extensive incongruence relative to nuclear ribosomal DNA. These results highlight that although useful for improving phylogenetic resolution in the family and providing some species-level insights, plastome sequences only partially improve species discrimination, and this reinforces the need for large-scale nuclear data to improve discrimination among closely related species

Imposing compulsory Rugby Union on schoolchildren: an analysis of English state-funded secondary schools

Objective: to establish the extent to which Rugby Union was a compulsory physical education activity in state-funded secondary schools in England and to understand the views of Subject Leaders for Physical Education with respect to injury risk. Method: a cross-sectional research study using data obtained under the Freedom of Information Act (2000) from 288 state-funded secondary schools. Results: Rugby Union was delivered in 81% (n = 234 of 288) of state-funded secondary school physical education curricula, including 83% (n = 229 of 275) of state-funded secondary school boys’ and 54% (n = 151 of 282) of girls’ physical education curricular. Rugby Union was compulsory in 91% (n = 208 of 229) of state-funded secondary schools that delivered it as part of the boys’ physical education curriculum and 54% (n = 82 of 151) of state-funded secondary schools that delivered contact Rugby Union as part of the girls’ physical education curriculum. Subject Leaders for Physical Education also perceived Rugby Union to have the highest risk of harm of the activities they delivered in their school physical education curriculum. Conclusion: Notwithstanding discussions of appropriate measures (i.e., mandatory concussion training, Rugby Union specific qualifications and CPD) to reduce injury risk, it is recommended that Rugby Union should not be a compulsory activity given that it has a perceived high risk of injury and is an unnecessary risk for children in physical education