Information Aggregation with Costly Information and Random Ordering: Experimental Evidence

The cost of information is an often ignored factor in economic situations although the information acquisition behavior of the decision makers has a crucial influence on the outcome. In this experiment, we study an information aggregation process in which participants decide in a random sequence. Participants observe predecessors decisions and can acquire additional private information at a fixed price. We analyze participants information acquisition behavior and updating procedures. About one half of the individuals act rationally, whereas the other participants systematically overestimate the private signal value. This leads to excessive signal acquisitions and reduced conformity.

To buy or not to buy : why do people buy too much information?

Previous studies have shown that individuals exhibit a tendency to acquire an excessive amount of private information if information can only be communicated through a small and discrete action space. In this experiment we investigate demand for information when the action space is continuous. Participants sequentially assess their subjective probability which one out of two apriori equally likely states occurred at the beginning of a game. They observe the probability assessment of their predecessor and can acquire additional private information at a fixed price. Participants interact with either human or computer simulated players. We find that individuals in general acquire too many signals and that behavior does not depend on the rationality of their counterparts. A random utility model is able to explain most of the observed behavior

How do people take into account weight, strength and quality of segregated vs. aggregated data? Experimental evidence

In this experimental study we investigated how people aggregate two sets of signals about the state of the world to reach a single probability judgment. The signal sets may differ in the way signals are presented, in their number as well as their quality. By varying the presentation mode of the signals we investigated how people deal with segregated and aggregated evidence. We investigated whether subjects sufficiently take into account weight (number of signals), strength (composition) and quality of the information provided. The results indicate that consideration of the weight and strength of signals strongly depends on the type of their presentation. Particular patterns can be identified which determine if weight and/or strength are either under- or overweighted

Information aggregation with costly information and random ordering : experimental evidence

The cost of information is an often ignored factor in economic situations although the information acquisition behavior of the decision makers has a crucial influence on the outcome. In this experiment, we study an information aggregation process in which participants decide in a random sequence. Participants observe predecessors decisions and can acquire additional private information at a fixed price. We analyze participants information acquisition behavior and updating procedures. About one half of the individuals act rationally, whereas the other participants systematically overestimate the private signal value. This leads to excessive signal acquisitions and reduced conformity

SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Testing: The Tower of Babel

Background and aim: Testing represents one of the main pillars of public health response to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic. This paper shows how accuracy and utility of testing programs depend not just on the type of tests, but on the context as well. Methods: We describe the testing methods that have been developed and the possible testing strategies; then, we focus on two possible methods of population-wide testing, i.e., pooled testing and testing with rapid antigen tests. We show the accuracy of split-pooling method and how, in different pre-test probability scenarios, the positive and negative predictive values vary using rapid antigen tests. Results: Split-pooling, followed by retesting of negative results, shows a higher sensitivity than individual testing and requires fewer tests. In case of low pre-test probability, a negative result with antigen test could allow to rule out the infection, while, in case of a positive result, a confirmatory molecular test would be necessary. Conclusions: Test performance alone is not enough to properly choose which test to use; goals and context of the testing program are essential. We advocate the use of pooled strategies when planning population-wide screening, and the weekly use of rapid tests for close periodic monitoring in low-prevalence populations

First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data

Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto- noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of 11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal. Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried out so far

Effective use of cerium anomalies as a redox proxy in carbonate-dominated marine settings

Rare earth elements and yttrium (REY) have a distinct distribution pattern in seawater, and this pattern may be faithfully preserved in carbonate sediments and rocks. Anomalous concentrations of redox-sensitive cerium (Ce) compared with neighbouring REY originate in oxic water column conditions, and as such, Ce anomalies can provide a potentially useful redox proxy in carbonate-dominated marine settings. The methods used to extract REY from carbonates vary widely, and may suffer from widespread leaching of REY from accessory non-carbonate minerals and organic matter, limiting the application of Ce anomalies for palaeo-redox reconstruction. We have systematically compared different methods on 195 carbonate samples with varying purity (% carbonate) from both modern and ancient environments. We used sequential leaching experiments in nitric acid to identify the most ‘seawater-like’ portion of the carbonate sample where contributions from non-carbonate minerals and organic matter are minimised. We also compared the results of sample dissolution in different types and strengths of acid. Our results confirm that REY concentrations can be inadvertently contaminated by partial leaching of clays and Fe (oxyhydr)oxides during a single-step digestion, and we suggest a pre-leach of 20% of the sample, followed by a partial leach of 40% of the sample to selectively dissolve carbonate. We suggest that REY studies are optimised in carbonates with > 85% CaCO₃, and show that dolomites behave differently during the leaching process and must be treated separately. We present REY patterns for modern carbonate-rich sediments from a range of environments, and show that seawater REY are faithfully preserved in some non-skeletal carbonate, but modified leaching procedures are necessary for impure, unlithified or organic rich carbonate sediments. We combine REY with Fe-speciation data to identify how Fe oxides and clays contribute to the REY signal and explore how the two proxies can be used together to provide a complex and high-resolution redox reconstruction in carbonate-dominated marine environments