Modelling the social and structural determinants of tuberculosis: opportunities and challenges

INTRODUCTION: Despite the close link between tuberculosis (TB) and poverty, most mathematical models of TB have not addressed underlying social and structural determinants. OBJECTIVE: To review studies employing mathematical modelling to evaluate the epidemiological impact of the structural determinants of TB. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed and personal libraries to identify eligible articles. We extracted data on the modelling techniques employed, research question, types of structural determinants modelled and setting. RESULTS: From 232 records identified, we included eight articles published between 2008 and 2015; six employed population-based dynamic TB transmission models and two non-dynamic analytic models. Seven studies focused on proximal TB determinants (four on nutritional status, one on wealth, one on indoor air pollution, and one examined overcrowding, socio-economic and nutritional status), and one focused on macro-economic influences. CONCLUSIONS: Few modelling studies have attempted to evaluate structural determinants of TB, resulting in key knowledge gaps. Despite the challenges of modelling such a complex system, models must broaden their scope to remain useful for policy making. Given the intersectoral nature of the interrelations between structural determinants and TB outcomes, this work will require multidisciplinary collaborations. A useful starting point would be to focus on developing relatively simple models that can strengthen our knowledge regarding the potential effect of the structural determinants on TB outcomes

Effect of toroidal field ripple on plasma rotation in JET

Dedicated experiments on TF ripple effects on the performance of tokamak plasmas have been carried out at JET. The TF ripple was found to have a profound effect on the plasma rotation. The central Mach number, M, defined as the ratio of the rotation velocity and the thermal velocity, was found to drop as a function of TF ripple amplitude (3) from an average value of M = 0.40-0.55 for operations at the standard JET ripple of 6 = 0.08% to M = 0.25-0.40 for 6 = 0.5% and M = 0.1-0.3 for delta = 1%. TF ripple effects should be considered when estimating the plasma rotation in ITER. With standard co-current injection of neutral beam injection (NBI), plasmas were found to rotate in the co-current direction. However, for higher TF ripple amplitudes (delta similar to 1%) an area of counter rotation developed at the edge of the plasma, while the core kept its co-rotation. The edge counter rotation was found to depend, besides on the TF ripple amplitude, on the edge temperature. The observed reduction of toroidal plasma rotation with increasing TF ripple could partly be explained by TF ripple induced losses of energetic ions, injected by NBI. However, the calculated torque due to these losses was insufficient to explain the observed counter rotation and its scaling with edge parameters. It is suggested that additional TF ripple induced losses of thermal ions contribute to this effect

Missed opportunity for standardized diagnosis and treatment among adult Tuberculosis patients in hospitals involved in Public-Private Mix for Directly Observed Treatment Short-Course strategy in Indonesia: a cross-sectional study

Background: The engagement of hospitals in Public-Private Mix (PPM) for Directly Observed Treatment Short-Course (DOTS) strategy has increased rapidly internationally - including in Indonesia. In view of the rapid global scaling-up of hospital engagement, we aimed to estimate the proportion of outpatient adult Tuberculosis patients who received standardized diagnosis and treatment at outpatients units of hospitals involved in the PPM-DOTS strategy. Methods: A cross-sectional study using morbidity reports for outpatients, laboratory registers and Tuberculosis patient registers from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2005. By quota sampling, 62 hospitals were selected. Post-stratification analysis was conducted to estimate the proportion of Tuberculosis cases receiving standardized management according to the DOTS strategy. Result: Nineteen to 53% of Tuberculosis cases and 4-18% of sputum smear positive Tuberculosis cases in hospitals that participated in the PPM-DOTS strategy were not treated with standardized diagnosis and treatment as in DOTS. Conclusion: This study found that a substantial proportion of TB patients cared for at PPM-DOTS hospitals are not managed under the DOTS strategy. This represents a missed opportunity for standardized diagnoses and treatment. A combination of strong individual commitment of health professionals, organizational supports, leadership, and relevant policy in hospital and National Tuberculosis Programme may be required to strengthen DOTS implementation in hospitals

The seasonality of tuberculosis, sunlight, vitamin D, and household crowding.

BACKGROUND: Unlike other respiratory infections, tuberculosis diagnoses increase in summer. We performed an ecological analysis of this paradoxical seasonality in a Peruvian shantytown over 4 years. METHODS: Tuberculosis symptom-onset and diagnosis dates were recorded for 852 patients. Their tuberculosis-exposed cohabitants were tested for tuberculosis infection with the tuberculin skin test (n = 1389) and QuantiFERON assay (n = 576) and vitamin D concentrations (n = 195) quantified from randomly selected cohabitants. Crowding was calculated for all tuberculosis-affected households and daily sunlight records obtained. RESULTS: Fifty-seven percent of vitamin D measurements revealed deficiency (<50 nmol/L). Risk of deficiency was increased 2.0-fold by female sex (P < .001) and 1.4-fold by winter (P < .05). During the weeks following peak crowding and trough sunlight, there was a midwinter peak in vitamin D deficiency (P < .02). Peak vitamin D deficiency was followed 6 weeks later by a late-winter peak in tuberculin skin test positivity and 12 weeks after that by an early-summer peak in QuantiFERON positivity (both P < .04). Twelve weeks after peak QuantiFERON positivity, there was a midsummer peak in tuberculosis symptom onset (P < .05) followed after 3 weeks by a late-summer peak in tuberculosis diagnoses (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The intervals from midwinter peak crowding and trough sunlight to sequential peaks in vitamin D deficiency, tuberculosis infection, symptom onset, and diagnosis may explain the enigmatic late-summer peak in tuberculosis

Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis Control in China: Progress and Challenge

Background: China has the second highest caseload of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in the world. In 2009, the Chinese government agreed to draw up a plan for MDR-TB prevention and control in the context of a comprehensive health system reform launched in the same year. Discussion: China is facing high prevalence rates of drug-resistant TB and MDR-TB. MDR-TB disproportionally affects the poor rural population and the highest rates are in less developed regions largely due to interrupted and/or inappropriate TB treatment. Most households with an affected member suffer a heavy financial burden because of a combination of treatment and other related costs. The influential Global Fund programme for MDR-TB control in China provides technical and financial support for MDR-TB diagnosis and treatment. However, this programme has a fixed timeline and cannot provide a long term solution. In 2009, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, in cooperation with the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China, started to develop innovative approaches to TB/MDR-TB management and case-based payment mechanisms for treatment, alongside increased health insurance benefits for patients, in order to contain medical costs and reduce financial barriers to treatment. Although these efforts appear to be in the right direction, they may not be sufficient unless (a) domestic sources are mobilized to raise funding for TB/MDR-TB prevention and control and (b) appropriate incentives are given to both health facilities and their care providers. Summary: Along with the on-going Chinese health system reform, sustained government financing and social health protection schemes will be critical to ensure universal access to appropriate TB treatment in order to reduce risk of developing MDR-TB and systematic MDR-TB treatment and management

Human biomarkers: can they help us to develop a new tuberculosis vaccine?

The most effective intervention for the control of infectious disease is vaccination. The BCG vaccine, the only licensed vaccine for the prevention of tuberculosis (TB) disease, is only partially effective and a new vaccine is urgently needed. Biomarkers can aid the development of new TB vaccines through discovery of immune mechanisms, early assessment of vaccine immunogenicity or vaccine take and identification of those at greatest risk of disease progression for recruitment into smaller, targeted efficacy trials. The ultimate goal, however, remains a biomarker of TB vaccine efficacy that can be used as a surrogate for a TB disease end point and there remains an urgent need for further research in this area

Clinicopathological Profile and Surgical Treatment of Abdominal Tuberculosis: A Single Centre Experience in Northwestern Tanzania.

Abdominal tuberculosis continues to be a major public health problem worldwide and poses diagnostic and therapeutic challenges to general surgeons practicing in resource-limited countries. This study was conducted to describe the clinicopathological profile and outcome of surgical treatment of abdominal tuberculosis in our setting and compare with what is described in literature. A prospective descriptive study of patients who presented with abdominal tuberculosis was conducted at Bugando Medical Centre (BMC) in northwestern Tanzania from January 2006 to February 2012. Ethical approval to conduct the study was obtained from relevant authorities. Statistical data analysis was performed using SPSS version 17.0. Out of 256 patients enrolled in the study, males outnumbered females. The median age was 28 years (range = 16-68 years). The majority of patients (77.3%) had primary abdominal tuberculosis. A total of 127 (49.6%) patients presented with intestinal obstruction, 106 (41.4%) with peritonitis, 17 (6.6%) with abdominal masses and 6 (2.3%) patients with multiple fistulae in ano. Forty-eight (18.8%) patients were HIV positive. A total of 212 (82.8%) patients underwent surgical treatment for abdominal tuberculosis. Bands /adhesions (58.5%) were the most common operative findings. Ileo-caecal region was the most common bowel involved in 122 (57.5%) patients. Release of adhesions and bands was the most frequent surgical procedure performed in 58.5% of cases. Complication and mortality rates were 29.7% and 18.8% respectively. The overall median length of hospital stay was 32 days and was significantly longer in patients with complications (p < 0.001). Advanced age (age ≥ 65 years), co-morbid illness, late presentation, HIV positivity and CD4+ count < 200 cells/μl were statistically significantly associated with mortality (p < 0.0001). The follow up of patients were generally poor as only 37.5% of patients were available for follow up at twelve months after discharge. Abdominal tuberculosis constitutes a major public health problem in our environment and presents a diagnostic challenge requiring a high index of clinical suspicion. Early diagnosis, early anti-tuberculous therapy and surgical treatment of the associated complications are essential for survival

Investigation of deuterium trapping and release in the JET divertor during the third ILW campaign using TDS

Selected set of samples from JET ITER-Like Wall (JET-ILW) divertor tiles exposed in 2015-2016 has been analysed using Thermal Desorption Spectrometry (TDS). The deuterium (D) amounts obtained with TDS were compared with Nuclear Reaction Analysis (NRA). The highest amount of D was found on the top part of inner divertor which has regions with the thickest deposited layers as for divertor tiles removed in 2014. This area resides deep in the scrape-off layer and plasma configurations for the second (ILW-2, 2013-2014) and the third (ILW-3, 2015-2016) JET-ILW campaigns were similar. Agreement between TDS and NRA is good on the apron of Tile 1 and on the upper vertical region whereas on the lower vertical region of Tile 1 the NRA results are clearly smaller than the TDS results. Inner divertor Tile 3 has somewhat less D than Tiles 0 and 1, and the D amount decreases towards the lower part of the tile. The D retention at the divertor inner and outer corner regions is not symmetric as there is more D retention poloidally at the inner than at the outer divertor corner. In most cases the TDS spectra for the ILW-3 samples are different from the corresponding ILW-2 spectra because HD and D-2 release occurs at higher temperatures than from the ILW-2 samples indicating that the low energy traps have been emptied during the plasma operations and that D is either in the energetically deep traps or located deeper in the sample.Peer reviewe

A machine learning approach based on generative topographic mapping for disruption prevention and avoidance at JET

The need for predictive capabilities greater than 95% with very limited false alarms are demanding requirements for reliable disruption prediction systems in tokamaks such as JET or, in the near future, ITER. The prediction of an upcoming disruption must be provided sufficiently in advance in order to apply effective disruption avoidance or mitigation actions to prevent the machine from being damaged. In this paper, following the typical machine learning workflow, a generative topographic mapping (GTM) of the operational space of JET has been built using a set of disrupted and regularly terminated discharges. In order to build the predictive model, a suitable set of dimensionless, machine-independent, physics-based features have been synthesized, which make use of 1D plasma profile information, rather than simple zero-D time series. The use of such predicting features, together with the power of the GTM in fitting the model to the data, obtains, in an unsupervised way, a 2D map of the multi-dimensional parameter space of JET, where it is possible to identify a boundary separating the region free from disruption from the disruption region. In addition to helping in operational boundaries studies, the GTM map can also be used for disruption prediction exploiting the potential of the developed GTM toolbox to monitor the discharge dynamics. Following the trajectory of a discharge on the map throughout the different regions, an alarm is triggered depending on the disruption risk of these regions. The proposed approach to predict disruptions has been evaluated on a training and an independent test set and achieves very good performance with only one tardive detection and a limited number of false detections. The warning times are suitable for avoidance purposes and, more important, the detections are consistent with physical causes and mechanisms that destabilize the plasma leading to disruptions.Peer reviewe