State-space models' dirty little secrets: even simple linear Gaussian models can have estimation problems

State-space models (SSMs) are increasingly used in ecology to model time-series such as animal movement paths and population dynamics. This type of hierarchical model is often structured to account for two levels of variability: biological stochasticity and measurement error. SSMs are flexible. They can model linear and nonlinear processes using a variety of statistical distributions. Recent ecological SSMs are often complex, with a large number of parameters to estimate. Through a simulation study, we show that even simple linear Gaussian SSMs can suffer from parameter- and state-estimation problems. We demonstrate that these problems occur primarily when measurement error is larger than biological stochasticity, the condition that often drives ecologists to use SSMs. Using an animal movement example, we show how these estimation problems can affect ecological inference. Biased parameter estimates of a SSM describing the movement of polar bears (\textit{Ursus maritimus}) result in overestimating their energy expenditure. We suggest potential solutions, but show that it often remains difficult to estimate parameters. While SSMs are powerful tools, they can give misleading results and we urge ecologists to assess whether the parameters can be estimated accurately before drawing ecological conclusions from their results

Consequences of global shipping traffic for marine giants

Shipping routes in the ocean are analogous to terrestrial roads, in that they are regularly used thoroughfares that concentrate the movement of vessels between multiple locations. We applied a terrestrial road ecology framework to examine the ecological impacts of increased global shipping on "marine giants" (ie great whales, basking sharks [Cetorhinus maximus], and whale sharks [Rhincodon typus]). This framework aided in identifying where such "marine roads" and marine giants are likely to interact and the consequences of those interactions. We also reviewed known impacts of shipping routes on these species, and then applied the road ecology framework to detect unknown and potentially threatening processes. In the marine environment, such a framework can be used to incorporate knowledge of existing shipping impacts into management practices, thereby reducing the detrimental effects of future expansion of shipping routes on marine giants

Variability in prey field structure drives inter-annual differences in prey encounter by a marine predator, the little penguin

This study was funded by Australian Research Council Linkage Grants (grant nos. LP110200603 and LP160100162), with contributions from the Taronga Conservation Society Australia.Understanding how marine predators encounter prey across patchy landscapes remains challenging due to difficulties in measuring the three-dimensional structure of pelagic prey fields at scales relevant to animal movement. We measured at-sea behaviour of a central-place forager, the little penguin (Eudyptula minor), over 5 years (2015–2019) using GPS and dive loggers. We made contemporaneous measurements of the prey field within the penguins' foraging range via boat-based acoustic surveys. We developed a prey encounter index by comparing estimates of acoustic prey density encountered along actual penguin tracks to those encountered along simulated penguin tracks with the same characteristics as real tracks but that moved randomly through the prey field. In most years, penguin tracks encountered prey better than simulated random movements greater than 99% of the time, and penguin dive depths matched peaks in the vertical distribution of prey. However, when prey was unusually sparse and/or deep, penguins had worse than random prey encounter indices, exhibited dives that mismatched depth of maximum prey density, and females had abnormally low body mass (5.3% lower than average). Reductions in prey encounters owing to decreases in the density or accessibility of prey may ultimately lead to reduced fitness and population declines in central-place foraging marine predators.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Return customers: foraging site fidelity and the effect of environmental variability in wide-ranging Antarctic fur seals

Strategies employed by wide-ranging foraging animals involve consideration of habitat quality and predictability and should maximise net energy gain. Fidelity to foraging sites is common in areas of high resource availability or where predictable changes in resource availability occur. However, if resource availability is heterogeneous or unpredictable, as it often is in marine environments, then habitat familiarity may also present ecological benefits to individuals. We examined the winter foraging distribution of female Antarctic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazelle, over four years to assess the degree of foraging site fidelity at two scales; within and between years. On average, between-year fidelity was strong, with most individuals utilising more than half of their annual foraging home range over multiple years. However, fidelity was a bimodal strategy among individuals, with five out of eight animals recording between-year overlap values of greater than 50%, while three animals recorded values of less than 5%. High long-term variance in sea surface temperature, a potential proxy for elevated long-term productivity and prey availability, typified areas of overlap. Within-year foraging site fidelity was weak, indicating that successive trips over the winter target different geographic areas. We suggest that over a season, changes in prey availability are predictable enough for individuals to shift foraging area in response, with limited associated energetic costs. Conversely, over multiple years, the availability of prey resources is less spatially and temporally predictable, increasing the potential costs of shifting foraging area and favouring long-term site fidelity. In a dynamic and patchy environment, multi-year foraging site fidelity may confer a long-term energetic advantage to the individual. Such behaviours that operate at the individual level have evolutionary and ecological implications and are potential drivers of niche specialization and modifiers of intra-specific competition

Behavioral Attributes Of Turbine Entrainment Risk for Adult Resident Fish Revealed By Acoustic Telemetry and State-Space Modeling

Background Fish entrainment through turbine intakes is one of the major issues for operators of hydropower facilities because it causes injury and/or mortality and adversely affects population abundance. Entrainment reduction strategies have been developed based on the behavior of downstream migrating fishes, particularly diadromous species. However, knowledge of the behavior of migratory fishes has very limited application for reducing the entrainment of resident fishes, including several species that represent important recreational and aboriginal fishery resources in reservoirs. In this study, we used fine-scale acoustic telemetry and state-space modeling to investigate behavioral attributes associated with entrainment risk of resident adult bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a large hydropower reservoir in British Columbia, Canada. Results We found that adult bull trout resided longer in the vicinity of the powerhouse and moved closer to the turbine intakes in the fall and particularly in the winter. Bull trout were more likely to engage in exploratory behavior (characteristic of foraging or reduced activity) during periods when their body temperature was lower or higher than 6°C. We also detected diel changes in behavioral attributes, with bull trout distance to intakes and probability of exploratory behavior slightly increasing at night. Conclusions We hypothesize that the exploratory behavior in the forebay is associated with foraging for kokanee (nonanadromous form of Oncorhynchus nerka), which have been shown to congregate near the dams of hydropower reservoirs in the winter. Our study findings should be applicable to bull trout populations residing in other reservoirs and indicate that entrainment mitigation (for example, use of deterrent devices) should be focused on the fall and winter. This work also provides a framework for combining acoustic telemetry and state-space models to understand and categorize movement behavior of fish in reservoirs and, more generally, in any environment with fluctuating water levels

Coastal seascape variability in the intensifying East Australian Current Southern Extension

Funding: This study was funded by Australian Research Council Linkage Grants (LP110200603 awarded to RH, DS and Iain Field, and LP160100162 awarded to IJ, Martina Doublin, MC, GC, DS, Iain Suthers and RH) with contributions from the Taronga Conservation Society Australia, NSW National Parks and the Australian Antarctic Division.Coastal pelagic ecosystems are highly variable in space and time, with environmental conditions and the distribution of biomass being driven by complex processes operating at multiple scales. The emergent properties of these processes and their interactive effects result in complex and dynamic environmental mosaics referred to as “seascapes”. Mechanisms that link large-scale oceanographic processes and ecological variability in coastal environments remain poorly understood, despite their importance for predicting how ecosystems will respond to climate change. Here we assessed seascape variability along the path of the rapidly intensifying East Australian Current (EAC) Southern Extension in southeast Australia, a hotspot of ocean warming and ecosystem tropicalisation. Using satellite and in situ measures of temperature, salinity and current velocity coupled with contemporaneous measurements of pelagic biomass distribution from nine boat-based active acoustic surveys in five consecutive years, we investigated relationships between the physical environment and the distribution of pelagic biomass (zooplankton and fish) at multiple timescales. Survey periods were characterised by high variability in oceanographic conditions, with variation in coastal conditions influenced by meso-to-large scale processes occurring offshore, including the position and strength of eddies. Intra-annual variability was often of a similar or greater magnitude to inter-annual variability, suggesting highly dynamic conditions with important variation occurring at scales of days to weeks. Two seascape categories were identified being characterised by (A) warmer, less saline water and (B) cooler, more saline water, with the former indicating greater influence of the EAC on coastal processes. Warmer waters were also associated with fewer, deeper and less dense biological aggregations. As the EAC continues to warm and penetrate further south, it is likely that this will have substantial effects on biological activity in coastal pelagic ecosystems, including a potential reduction in the accessibility of prey aggregations to surface-feeding predators and to fisheries. These results highlight the import role of offshore oceanographic processes in driving coastal seascape variability and biological activity in a region undergoing rapid oceanic warming and ecological change.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A comparison of the seasonal movements of tiger sharks and green turtles provides insight into their predator-prey relationship

During the reproductive season, sea turtles use a restricted area in the vicinity of their nesting beaches, making them vulnerable to predation. At Raine Island (Australia), the highest density green turtle Chelonia mydas rookery in the world, tiger sharks Galeocerdo cuvier have been observed to feed on green turtles, and it has been suggested that they may specialise on such air-breathing prey. However there is little information with which to examine this hypothesis. We compared the spatial and temporal components of movement behaviour of these two potentially interacting species in order to provide insight into the predator-prey relationship. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that tiger shark movements are more concentrated at Raine Island during the green turtle nesting season than outside the turtle nesting season when turtles are not concentrated at Raine Island. Turtles showed area-restricted search behaviour around Raine Island for ~3–4 months during the nesting period (November–February). This was followed by direct movement (transit) to putative foraging grounds mostly in the Torres Straight where they switched to area-restricted search mode again, and remained resident for the remainder of the deployment (53–304 days). In contrast, tiger sharks displayed high spatial and temporal variation in movement behaviour which was not closely linked to the movement behaviour of green turtles or recognised turtle foraging grounds. On average, tiger sharks were concentrated around Raine Island throughout the year. While information on diet is required to determine whether tiger sharks are turtle specialists our results support the hypothesis that they target this predictable and plentiful prey during turtle nesting season, but they might not focus on this less predictable food source outside the nesting season

Environmental drivers of population-level variation in the migratory and diving ontogeny of an Arctic top predator

This work is an output of the ARISE project (NE/P006035/1 and NE/P00623X/1), part of the Changing Arctic Ocean programme jointly funded by the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Fieldwork in Canada was carried out under a Canadian Council on Animal Care permit no. NAFC2017–2 and funded by Fisheries and Oceans Canada and a bursary from Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) administered by the NERC Arctic Office. Fieldwork in the Greenland Sea was approved by the Greenland Ministry of Fisheries, Hunting and Agriculture and the Norwegian Food Safety Authority (permit no. 11546) as part of the Northeast Greenland Environmental Study Program 2017–2018 (by the Danish Centre for Environment and Energy at Aarhus University, The Greenland Institute of Natural Resources and the Environmental Agency for Mineral Resource Activities of the Government of Greenland) and financed by oil licence holders in the area.The development of migratory strategies that enable juveniles to survive to sexual maturity is critical for species that exploit seasonal niches. For animals that forage via breath-hold diving, this requires a combination of both physiological and foraging skill development. Here, we assess how migratory and dive behaviour develop over the first year of life for a migratory Arctic top predator, the harp seal Pagophilus groenlandicus, tracked using animal-borne satellite relay data loggers. We reveal similarities in migratory movements and differences in diving behaviour between 38 juveniles tracked from the Greenland Sea and Northwest Atlantic breeding populations. In both regions, periods of resident and transitory behaviour during migration were associated with proxies for food availability: sea ice concentration and bathymetric depth. However, while ontogenetic development of dive behaviour was similar for both populations of juveniles over the first 25 days, after this time Greenland Sea animals performed shorter and shallower dives and were more closely associated with sea ice than Northwest Atlantic animals. Together, these results highlight the role of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in shaping early life behaviour. Variation in the environmental conditions experienced during early life may shape how different populations respond to the rapid changes occurring in the Arctic ocean ecosystem.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Ready or not: employment, re-entry and the lasting effects of stigma after incarceration

In this thesis I explore the how former prisoners experience the transition from incarceration to employment. Employment has been identified by researchers as an essential element in exprisoners’ community re-entry process. However, the path to attaining employment after incarceration, particularly meaningful employment, remains complicated. Drawing on in-depth, semi-structured longitudinal interviews with 24 parolees occurring over a three-year period, I seek to better understand the experiences of ex-prisoners as they attempt to find work. I aim to understand whether individuals are prepared to pursue employment immediately upon release from prison and the factors that impact their readiness, or lack thereof. Upon recognizing that individuals in the study tended to identify themselves as not ready for employment, I sought to understand why they were still expected to begin working using Goffman’s (1963) theory of stigma. I suggest that in many cases, attempting to manage one’s stigmatized status slows individuals’ return to work. As well, I suggest that the stigma associated with time spent incarcerated undermines individual credibility, and for this reason, participants’ assertions that they do not feel ready to begin working are often not accepted

Predator-derived bioregions in the Southern Ocean: Characteristics, drivers and representation in marine protected areas

Multiple initiatives have called for large-scale representative networks of marine protected areas (MPAs). MPAs should be ecologically representative to be effective, but in large, remote regions this can be difficult to quantify and assess. We present a novel bioregionalization for the Southern Ocean, which uses the modelled circumpolar habitat importance of 17 marine bird and mammal species. The habitat-use of these predators indicates biodiversity patterns that require representation in Southern Ocean conservation and management planning. In the predator habitat importance predictions, we identified 17 statistical clusters, falling into four larger groups. We characterized and contrasted these clusters based on their predator, prey and oceanographic characteristics. Under the existing Southern Ocean MPA network, some clusters fall short of 10 % representation, yet others meet or exceed these targets. Implementation of currently proposed MPAs can in some cases contribute to meeting even 30 % spatial coverage conservation targets. However, the effectiveness of mixed-use versus no-take MPAs should be taken into consideration, since some clusters are not adequately represented by no-take MPAs. These results, combined with previous studies in the Southern Ocean, can help inform the continued design, implementation, and evaluation of a representative system of MPAs for Southern Ocean conservation and management