Optimal Control Promotional Policy for a New Product Incorporating Repeat Purchase in Segmented Market: A Control Theoretic Approach

This chapter considers an optimal control model to obtain dynamic promotional policies for a product considering a segmented market where first-time and additional repeat purchase sales are assumed to be generated through mass and differentiated promotions. Mass promotion is carried out in the whole market which reaches each segment with a fixed spectrum, and differentiated promotion is catered to each segment individually. The firm’s finite promotional resources are to be allocated for promoting a product at mass and segment levels of the market in a finite time period. The formulated control problem obtains optimal promotional effort policy for each segment using the maximum principle. The applicability of the proposed control model is illustrated through a numerical example by discretizing the model

Performance criteria for verbal autopsy-based systems to estimate national causes of death: development and application to the Indian Million Death Study.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) has been proposed to determine the cause of death (COD) distributions in settings where most deaths occur without medical attention or certification. We develop performance criteria for VA-based COD systems and apply these to the Registrar General of India's ongoing, nationally-representative Indian Million Death Study (MDS). METHODS: Performance criteria include a low ill-defined proportion of deaths before old age; reproducibility, including consistency of COD distributions with independent resampling; differences in COD distribution of hospital, home, urban or rural deaths; age-, sex- and time-specific plausibility of specific diseases; stability and repeatability of dual physician coding; and the ability of the mortality classification system to capture a wide range of conditions. RESULTS: The introduction of the MDS in India reduced the proportion of ill-defined deaths before age 70 years from 13% to 4%. The cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) at ages 5 to 69 years for independently resampled deaths and the MDS were very similar across 19 disease categories. By contrast, CSMFs at these ages differed between hospital and home deaths and between urban and rural deaths. Thus, reliance mostly on urban or hospital data can distort national estimates of CODs. Age-, sex- and time-specific patterns for various diseases were plausible. Initial physician agreement on COD occurred about two-thirds of the time. The MDS COD classification system was able to capture more eligible records than alternative classification systems. By these metrics, the Indian MDS performs well for deaths prior to age 70 years. The key implication for low- and middle-income countries where medical certification of death remains uncommon is to implement COD surveys that randomly sample all deaths, use simple but high-quality field work with built-in resampling, and use electronic rather than paper systems to expedite field work and coding. CONCLUSIONS: Simple criteria can evaluate the performance of VA-based COD systems. Despite the misclassification of VA, the MDS demonstrates that national surveys of CODs using VA are an order of magnitude better than the limited COD data previously available

A multi-objective fuzzy mathematical approach for sustainable reverse supply chain configuration

BACKGROUND : Designing and implementation of reverse logistics (RL) network which meets the sustainability targets have been a matter of emerging concern for the electronics companies in India. OBJECTIVES : The present study developed a two-phase model for configuration of sustainable RL network design for an Indian manufacturing company to manage its end-of-life and endof- use electronic products. The notable feature of the model was the evaluation of facilities under financial, environmental and social considerations and integration of the facility selection decisions with the network design. METHOD : In the first phase, an integrated Analytical Hierarchical Process Complex Proportional Assessment methodology was used for the evaluation of the alternative locations in terms of their degree of utility, which in turn was based on the three dimensions of sustainability. In the second phase, the RL network was configured as a bi-objective programming problem, and fuzzy optimisation approach was utilised for obtaining a properly efficient solution to the problem. RESULTS : The compromised solution attained by the proposed fuzzy model demonstrated that the cost differential for choosing recovery facilities with better environmental and social performance was not significant; therefore, Indian manufacturers must not compromise on the sustainability aspects for facility location decisions. CONCLUSION : The results reaffirmed that the bi-objective fuzzy decision-making model can serve as a decision tool for the Indian manufacturers in designing a sustainable RL network. The multi-objective optimisation model captured a reasonable trade-off between the fuzzy goals of minimising the cost of the RL network and maximising the sustainable performance of the facilities chosen.http://www.jtscm.co.zaam2018Industrial and Systems Engineerin

Age-specifi c and sex-specifi c adult mortality risk in India in 2014: analysis of 0·27 million nationally surveyed deaths and demographic estimates from 597 districts

Background As child mortality decreases rapidly worldwide, premature adult mortality is becoming an increasingly important contributor to global mortality. Any possible worldwide reduction of premature adult mortality before the age of 70 years will depend on progress in India. Indian districts increasingly have responsibility for implementing public health programmes. We aimed to assess age-specifi c and sex-specifi c adult mortality risks in India at the district level. Methods We analysed data from fi ve national surveys of 0∙27 million adult deaths at an age of 15–69 years together with 2014 demographic data to estimate age-specifi c and sex-specifi c adult mortality risks for 597 districts. Cause of death data were drawn from the verbal autopsies in the Registrar General of India’s ongoing Million Death Study. Findings In 2014, about two-fi fths of India’s men aged 15–69 years lived in the 253 districts where the conditional probability of a man dying at these ages exceeded 50%, and more than a third of India’s women aged 15–69 years lived in the 222 districts where the conditional probability of a woman dying exceeded 40%. The probabilities of a man or woman dying by the age of 70 years in high-mortality districts was 62% and 54%, respectively, whereas the probability of a man or woman dying by the age of 70 years in low-mortality districts was 40% and 30%, respectively. The roughly 10-year survival gap between high-mortality and low-mortality districts was nearly as extreme as the survival gap between the entire Indian population and people living in high-income countries. Adult mortality risks at ages 15–69 years was highest in east India and lowest in west India, by contrast with the north–south divide for child mortality. Vascular disease, tuberculosis, malaria and other infections, and respiratory diseases accounted for about 60% of the absolute gap in adult mortality risk at ages 15–69 years between high-mortality and low-mortality districts. Most of the variation in adult mortality could not be explained by known determinants or risk factors for premature mortality. Interpretation India’s large variation in adult mortality by district, notably the higher death rates in eastern India, requires further aetiological research, particularly to explore whether high levels of adult mortality risks from infections and non-communicable diseases are a result of historical childhood malnutrition and infection. Such research can be complemented by an expanded coverage of known eff ective interventions to reduce adult mortality, especially in high-mortality district

Prospective Study of One Million Deaths in India: Rationale, Design, and Validation Results

BACKGROUND: Over 75% of the annual estimated 9.5 million deaths in India occur in the home, and the large majority of these do not have a certified cause. India and other developing countries urgently need reliable quantification of the causes of death. They also need better epidemiological evidence about the relevance of physical (such as blood pressure and obesity), behavioral (such as smoking, alcohol, HIV-1 risk taking, and immunization history), and biological (such as blood lipids and gene polymorphisms) measurements to the development of disease in individuals or disease rates in populations. We report here on the rationale, design, and implementation of the world's largest prospective study of the causes and correlates of mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We will monitor nearly 14 million people in 2.4 million nationally representative Indian households (6.3 million people in 1.1 million households in the 1998–2003 sample frame and 7.6 million people in 1.3 million households in the 2004–2014 sample frame) for vital status and, if dead, the causes of death through a well-validated verbal autopsy (VA) instrument. About 300,000 deaths from 1998–2003 and some 700,000 deaths from 2004–2014 are expected; of these about 850,000 will be coded by two physicians to provide causes of death by gender, age, socioeconomic status, and geographical region. Pilot studies will evaluate the addition of physical and biological measurements, specifically dried blood spots. Preliminary results from over 35,000 deaths suggest that VA can ascertain the leading causes of death, reduce the misclassification of causes, and derive the probable underlying cause of death when it has not been reported. VA yields broad classification of the underlying causes in about 90% of deaths before age 70. In old age, however, the proportion of classifiable deaths is lower. By tracking underlying demographic denominators, the study permits quantification of absolute mortality rates. Household case-control, proportional mortality, and nested case-control methods permit quantification of risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study will reliably document not only the underlying cause of child and adult deaths but also key risk factors (behavioral, physical, environmental, and eventually, genetic). It offers a globally replicable model for reliably estimating cause-specific mortality using VA and strengthens India's flagship mortality monitoring system. Despite the misclassification that is still expected, the new cause-of-death data will be substantially better than that available previously

Improvements in sperm motility following low or high intensity dietary interventions in men with obesity

Introduction: Obesity increases risks of male infertility, but bariatric surgery does not improve semen quality. Recent uncontrolled studies suggest that a low-energy diet (LED) improves semen quality. Further evaluation within a randomized, controlled setting is warranted. Methods: Men with obesity (18-60 years) with normal sperm concentration (normal count) (n = 24) or oligozoospermia (n = 43) were randomized 1:1 to either 800 kcal/day LED for 16 weeks or control, brief dietary intervention (BDI) with 16 weeks’ observation. Semen parameters were compared at baseline and 16 weeks. Results: Mean age of men with normal count was 39.4 ± 6.4 in BDI and 40.2 ± 9.6 years in the LED group. Mean age of men with oligozoospermia was 39.5 ± 7.5 in BDI and 37.7 ± 6.6 years in the LED group. LED caused more weight loss than BDI in men with normal count (14.4 vs 6.3 kg; P < .001) and men with oligozoospermia (17.6 vs 1.8 kg; P < .001). Compared with baseline, in men with normal count total motility (TM) increased 48 ± 17% to 60 ± 10% (P < .05) after LED, and 52 ± 8% to 61 ± 6% (P < .0001) after BDI; progressive motility (PM) increased 41 ± 16% to 53 ± 10% (P < .05) after LED, and 45 ± 8% to 54 ± 65% (P < .001) after BDI. In men with oligozoospermia compared with baseline, TM increased 35% [26] to 52% [16] (P < .05) after LED, and 43% [28] to 50% [23] (P = .0587) after BDI; PM increased 29% [23] to 46% [18] (P < .05) after LED, and 33% [25] to 44% [25] (P < .05) after BDI. No differences in postintervention TM or PM were observed between LED and BDI groups in men with normal count or oligozoospermia. Conclusion: LED or BDI may be sufficient to improve sperm motility in men with obesity. The effects of paternal dietary intervention on fertility outcomes requires investigation

Assessment of phytoplankton diversity, distribution, and environmental variables along the southeast coast of India

Coastal waters are dynamic because of anthropogenic activities that contribute nutrients and contaminants. These changes have the potential to alter patterns of primary production and thus pelagic food webs. Here, we investigated the spatial variation of the phytoplankton community and its response to changing environmental variables at 84 stations along the five coastal districts of Tamil Nadu (TN). During the present study, 85 phytoplankton species were recorded, such as diatoms (64), dinoflagellates (18), silicoflagellates (1), and Cyanophyceae (2). The maximum phytoplankton abundance was recorded on the Thanjavur coast and gradually decreased towards the south coast of Tamil Nadu. Among the phytoplankton community, 50% was dominated by pennate diatoms, attributed to higher NO3− concentrations in the coastal waters due to agricultural discharge. Cluster analysis revealed that Ramanathapuram and Tirunelveli formed a closed cluster, whereas Thanjavur and Pudukottai formed a separate closed cluster associated with higher nutrient and metal concentrations, highlighting the difference in physicochemical parameters between the northern and southern districts of the TN coast. Relatively high nutrient concentrations in the coastal waters of northern districts are of greater concern, which could impact the coastal ecosystem. Coastal eutrophication is becoming a widespread phenomenon, causing disruption in the food chain and ecosystem balances and hence requiring regular monitoring and management

Movies and TV Influence Tobacco Use in India: Findings from a National Survey

Background: Exposure to mass media may impact the use of tobacco, a major source of illness and death in India. The objective is to test the association of self-reported tobacco smoking and chewing with frequency of use of four types of mass media: newspapers, radio, television, and movies. Methodology/Principal Findings: We analyzed data from a sex-stratified nationally-representative cross-sectional survey of 123,768 women and 74,068 men in India. All models controlled for wealth, education, caste, occupation, urbanicity, religion, marital status, and age. In fully-adjusted models, monthly cinema attendance is associated with increased smoking among women (relative risk [RR]: 1·55; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1·04–2·31) and men (RR: 1·17; 95% CI: 1·12–1·23) and increased tobacco chewing among men (RR: 1·15; 95% CI: 1·11–1·20). Daily television and radio use is associated with higher likelihood of tobacco chewing among men and women, while daily newspaper use is related to lower likelihood of tobacco chewing among women. Conclusion/Significance: In India, exposure to visual mass media may contribute to increased tobacco consumption in men and women, while newspaper use may suppress the use of tobacco chewing in women. Future studies should investigate the role that different types of media content and media play in influencing other health behaviors