Environmental changes and violent conflict

This letter reviews the scientific literature on whether and how environmental changes affect the risk of violent conflict. The available evidence from qualitative case studies indicates that environmental stress can contribute to violent conflict in some specific cases. Results from quantitative large-N studies, however, strongly suggest that we should be careful in drawing general conclusions. Those large-N studies that we regard as the most sophisticated ones obtain results that are not robust to alternative model specifications and, thus, have been debated. This suggests that environmental changes may, under specific circumstances, increase the risk of violent conflict, but not necessarily in a systematic way and unconditionally. Hence there is, to date, no scientific consensus on the impact of environmental changes on violent conflict. This letter also highlights the most important challenges for further research on the subject. One of the key issues is that the effects of environmental changes on violent conflict are likely to be contingent on a set of economic and political conditions that determine adaptation capacity. In the authors' view, the most important indirect effects are likely to lead from environmental changes via economic performance and migration to violent conflict. © 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd

Public Information and Performance: The Role of Spatial Dependence in the Worldwide Governance Indicators among African Countries

The Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) provide transparent and comparable country statistics for different dimensions of governance linked to (under)development. Yet, does the public availability of governance data actually enhance performance? If investors, donor agencies, and citizens are made aware of relative governance performance, competition for inward investment, such as FDI and ODA, and domestic legitimacy become plausible mechanisms for diffusion of good governance. We test whether such mechanisms operate using the WGI for Africa, and find evidence for spatial diffusion of democracy, rule of law, and corruption control. There is no evidence for diffusion of regulatory quality and government effectiveness

Priorities for action on the social determinants of health : Empirical evidence on the strongest associations with life expectancy in 54 low-income countries, 1990–2012

The WHO Commission on the Social Determinants of Health set out an impressive collection of policy proposals on the social determinants of health. However, a serious weakness for securing implementation is the difficulty for policymakers in identifying priorities for action. The objective of this study is to determine a small set of the most influential determinants using existing data and an empirical approach. 45 Indicators from the World Bank's World Development Indicators are selected to measure attainment for the determinants proposed by the Commission. Panel data models of life expectancy at birth for 54 low-income countries over the years 1990–2012 (1188 country-years) are estimated. Each determinant is subjected to a robustness test using Extreme Bound Analysis, to determine the stability of its estimated impact on life expectancy. For 20 robust and significant determinants the magnitude of association with life expectancy is determined. The largest average increases in life expectancy at 14.5 months per capita is associated with a one standard deviation reduction in HIV prevalence among children, followed by advances in gender equality at 9.4 months. Improvements in life expectancy between 6 and 9 months are associated with agricultural production, political stability, access to clean water and sanitation, good governance, and primary school enrolment. Improvements below 6 months are associated with increases in private health expenditure and overseas development assistance, and control of armed conflict and HIV prevalence among men. There is no evidence that national income, public spending on healthcare and education, secondary schooling, terms of international trade, employment, debt service and relief, out-of-pocket expenditures, agricultural ex- or imports, lifestock production, foreign investment, urbanization or environmental degradation are robustly associated with population health. Results provide support for the relevance of some proposed policies. The findings can inform priorities for future research and policy action on the social determinants of health

Review of The fast-changing Arctic: rethinking security for a warmer world,

How will the changes currently taking place in the Arctic affect the future nature of interstate relations in the region? To what extent, and how, will the decline in summer and winter sea ice in the Polar Basin lead to changes in the pattern of human activity in the Arctic? How do the Arctic states approach the region and each other, and to what extent are their Arctic strategies compatible? Will the Arctic become an arena of jurisdictional disputes and heightened military tension, or will it become a region of cooperation and prosperity? These are among the core questions addressed in The fast-changing Arctic: rethinking security for a warmer world, edited by Barry Scott Zellen. (Published: 19 February 2014) Citation: Polar Research 2014, 33, 23951, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/polar.v33.23951 &nbsp