Nonlinear Prediction of Solar Cycle 24

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and has even been correlated speculatively with changes in global weather patterns. This paper investigates trends in sunspot activity, using new techniques for decadal-scale prediction of the present solar cycle (cycle 24). First, Hurst exponent $H$ analysis is used to investigate the autocorrelation structure of the putative dynamics; then the Sugihara-May algorithm is used to predict the ascension time and the maximum intensity of the current sunspot cycle. Here we report $H$ = 0.86 for the complete sunspot number dataset (1700-2007) and $H$ = 0.88 for the reliable sunspot data set (1848-2007). Using the Sugihara-May algorithm analysis, we forecast that cycle 24 will reach its maximum in December 2012 at approximately 87 sunspots units.Comment: Accepted by Ap

Skp2 expression is associated with high risk and elevated Ki67 expression in gastrointestinal stromal tumours

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) exhibit an unpredictable clinical course and can rapidly progress to lethality. Predictions about the biological behavior of GIST are based on a number of canonical clinical and pathologic parameters whose validity in distinguishing between a benign and a malignant tumour is still imperfect. The aim of our study was to investigate the role of morphologic parameters and expression of cells cycle regulators as prognosticators in GIST. METHODS: We performed an immunohistochemical analysis for Ki67, p27Kip1, Jab1, and Skp2, on a Tissue Microarray (TMA) containing 94 GIST. Expression of the above proteins was correlated to classically used prognosticators, as well as to risk groups. Clinical significance of histologic and immunohistochemical features were evaluated in 59 patients for whom follow-up information was available. RESULTS: Overexpression of Ki67 and Skp2, and p27Kip1 loss directly correlated with the high risk group (p = 0.03 for Ki67 and Skp2, p = 0.05 for p27Kip1). Jab1 expression did not exhibit correlation with risk. In 59 cases provided with clinical follow-up, high cellularity, presence of necrosis, and Ki67 overexpression were predictive of a reduced overall survival in a univariate model. The same parameters, as well as mitotic rate, tumour size, and p27Kip1 loss were indicative of a shortened relapse free survival interval. High cellularity, and high mitotic rate retained their prognostic significance by multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that a number of histologic parameters in combination with immunohistochemical expression of cell cycle regulators can facilitate risk categorization and predict biologic behavior in GIST. Importantly this study demonstrates, for the first time, that Skp2 expression correlates with Ki67 expression and high risk in GIST

A New Interface for Conceptual Design Based on Object Reconstruction from a Single Freehand Sketch

are troublesome for curvature-based classification, and (b) it has a short execution time that is not dependent on the length of the stroke or the number of sample points acquired (assuming coordinates have been summed while drawing the stroke). The procedure can therefore be used to provide continuous feedback of the interpreted entity during drawing, in real time. However, in spite of this ability, it is evident that geometrical-based classification is inherently limited and a more general, context-sensitive approach must be pursued. A new endpoint clustering scheme has also been presented based on adaptive tolerances at different parts of the sketch. The proposed formulation provides a framework for implementing various criteria for determining local thresholds, such as detail sensitive criteria, dynamic criteria, or other application specific criteria. Again, clustering can be improved using a contextsensitive approach. Acknowledgments This research has been supported in part by the Fund for 4 Pavlidis, T., and Van Wyk, C. J., 1985, "An Automatic Beautifler for Drawings and Illustrations," SIGGRAPH 85, Vol. 19, No. 3, pp. 225-234. 5 Bengi, F., and Ozguc, B., 1990, "Architectural Sketch Recognition," Architectural Science Review, Vol. 33, pp. 3-16. 6 Eggli, L., BrUderlin, B. P., and Elber, G. Introduction Improperly designed engineering products may fail in fatigue causing losses in revenue and personal injury or death. Currently, these failures are avoided by either using expensive design techniques involving extensive modeling and testing or by over designing the part. The expense of testing and modification of the initial design is reduced if the design criterion gives a good initial approximation. Several design approaches have been developed to address the problem of fatigue damage of ductile metals loaded with positive mean and alternating stresses. The Bagci, Gerber, Nichihara, modified Goodman, Quadratic, and Soderberg lines are a few of the techniques that have been proposed to address the problem. This paper presents the modified Findley line for designing parts which experience positive mean stress fatigue loading. The modified Findley line is based on the assumption that the critical shear decreases with an increase in the normal stress acting on the same plane, and is simple and less conservative than the modified Goodman line. The Modified Findley Line Flavenot and Skalli (1984) stated "the mechanism corresponding to the initiation of fatigue cracks is most often the shearing of crystallographic planes. It appears logical then to have a criterion relating the normal stress to alternating shear stress which might be local shear stress in most favorable oriented plane." This assumption was used before by Stanfield (1935), who suggested that both the shear and normal stresses on the fatigue plane should be considered in a fatigue failure criterion and proposed the relation (1) where TN and ON are the shear and normal stresses components on the critical plane; /and k are materials constants. Stulen and Cummings (1954), and Findley et al. (195 6) used similar forms as fatigue criteria to address the problem of absolutely reversing fatigue. Findley (1959) used the linear relationship between shear stress and normal stress on a critical plane to include the effect of mean stress on the fatigue of metals under combined loading. Journal of Mechanical Design MARCH 1997, Vol. 119/135 Copyright © 1997 by ASME where a^^" and <7" are the maximum and alternating fatigue stresses; / and k are experimental constants. Since these constants may vary with the design parameters, including materials, the actual design must be tested to determine the values of / and k. To experimentally find the values of these constants, the life of the part is determined, and at this point the values of / and k are of only academic interest. Thus, if the fatigue criterion presented in Eq. It should be noted that the negative root of Eq. Upon the application of condition (b), Eq. (4) becomes /=A:5",. Equations Substituting Eqs. 5" -[-S" + 4SI + 4(5", -5")(S", -a") ], (10) 2(5",-5") which is called the modified Findley line. Comparison With Actual Experimental Data The modified Findley, Gerber, and modified Goodman lines were compared with the experimentally developed fatigue data found in the literature. Typical data showing the fatigue points of both ferrous and non-ferrous ductile materials are shown in As shown in these figures and comparison done by Wang (1995), the modified Findley line falls between the modified Goodman line and Gerber parabola, which is supported by Conclusion The modified Findley line is based on the assumption that the critical shear decreases with an increase in the normal stress acting on the same plane, then by using ultimate strength and endurance limit as parameters to obtain a good initial approximation. Limited fatigue data is available in the open literature, and more comparison should be made before the modified Findley line is universally adopted. However, form the references found, it appears that the modified Findley line is a strong candidate for .fatigue criterion for parts made of non-ferrous ductile materials, and is conservative for ferrous parts. For a design engineer, the modified Findley line is simple and easy to use, and represents a very promising approach for leading to reasonable starting designs involving positive mean stress fatigue. Reference

Prognostic factors affecting survival after surgical resection of gastrointestinal stromal tumours: a two-unit experience over 10 years

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs) are the most common mesenchymal neoplasm of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract which has only been recently described based on their specific immunohistochemistry and the presence of particular KIT-related mutations which potentially make them targets for tyrosine kinase inhibition. METHODS: Sixty-one patients (29 M; 32 F, median age 60 years; range: 23–86 years) between June 1994 and March 2005, were analyzed from two allied institutions. Patient, tumour, and treatment variables were analyzed to identify factors affecting survival. RESULTS: Of the 61 patients, 55 (90%) underwent complete surgical resection of macroscopic disease. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate in the 61 patients was 88% and the 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) in the 55 cases completely resected was 75%. Univariate analysis revealed that R0 resection was strongly associated with a better OSrate (p < 0.0001). Likewise, univariate analysis also showed high mitotic count of > 10 mitoses/per 50 HPF was a significant variable in worse prognosis for OS (≤ 10 mitoses/per 50 HPF 95% 5-year OS vs. > 10 mitoses/per 50 HPF 74% 5-year OS, respectively; p = 0.013). On subsequent multivariate analysis, only high mitotic count remained as a significant negative prognostic variable for OS (p = 0.029). Among patients resected for cure, there were 8 recurrences during follow-up. The mean time to recurrence was 21 ± 10 months (range: 4–36 months). Univariate analysis revealed that mitotic count of > 10 mitoses per 50 high power fields, intratumoural necrosis, and pathological tumour size (> 10 cm in maximal diameter) significantly correlated with DFS (p = 0.006, 0.002 and 0.02, respectively), with tumour necrosis and high mitotic count remaining as independent predictive variables affecting prognosis on subsequent multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Most GISTs are resectable with survival principally dependent upon mitotic count and completeness of resection. Future metabolic and genetic analyses will define the role of and resistance to induction or postoperative adjuvant targeted kinase inhibition therapy

The role of open abdomen in non-trauma patient : WSES Consensus Paper

The open abdomen (OA) is defined as intentional decision to leave the fascial edges of the abdomen un-approximated after laparotomy (laparostomy). The abdominal contents are potentially exposed and therefore must be protected with a temporary coverage, which is referred to as temporal abdominal closure (TAC). OA use remains widely debated with many specific details deserving detailed assessment and clarification. To date, in patients with intra-abdominal emergencies, the OA has not been formally endorsed for routine utilization; although, utilization is seemingly increasing. Therefore, the World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES), Abdominal Compartment Society (WSACS) and the Donegal Research Academy united a worldwide group of experts in an international consensus conference to review and thereafter propose the basis for evidence-directed utilization of OA management in non-trauma emergency surgery and critically ill patients. In addition to utilization recommendations, questions with insufficient evidence urgently requiring future study were identified.Peer reviewe

Snitched-capacitor Lattice Filters

This paper presents a set of direct implementations of Lattice Filters using Switched Capacitor techniques. We discuss both FIR and AR versions of the lattice topology. All circuits are insensitive to parasitic capacitances and require a minimum number of clock phases. Measurement results supplement the computer simulations

Deletion analysis in Turkish patients with spinal muscular atrophy

Childhood proximal spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is an autosomal recessive disorder which presents as a severe, intermediate or mild condition. Here we present the molecular analysis of SMA candidate genes, the survival motor neuron gene (SMN), the neuronal apoptosis inhibitory protein gene (NAIP) and the p44 gene. Deletion frequency rate of these candidate genes is 93% in 106 Turkish SMA patients. Various deletion haplotypes by using genotypes of SMN, NAIP and p44 genes are constructed. Haplotype A, which is the deletion of all three involved genes, was found only in the most severe group with an early onset of usually less than 2 months of age. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

Allele distribution of D5S125, MAP1B5' and D5S679 microsatellite markers in Turkish spinal muscular atrophy families

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is an autosomal recessive disease and one of the most common genetic causes of death in childhood. The gene for SMA has been mapped to chromosome 5q11.2-13.3. Chromosomal distribution of the alleles of D5S125, MAP1B5 and D5S679 polymorphic microsatellite markers in 14 unrelated Turkish SMA families have been determined, It is observed that the A9 allele of D5S679 has a significant (chi(2): 3.41 p: 0.065) non-random association with mutant chromosomes

Medical experience of a university hospital in Turkey after the 1999 Marmara earthquake

Objectives: This study aimed to provide an overview of morbidity and mortality among patients admitted to the Hospital of the Medicine Faculty of Uludag University, Bursa, Turkey, after the 1999 Marmara earthquake. Methods: Retrospective analysis of the medical records of 645 earthquake victims. Patients' demographic data, diagnosis, dispositions, and prognosis were reviewed. Results: A total of 330 patients with earthquake related injuries and illness admitted to our hospital were included and divided into three main groups: crush syndrome (n = 110), vital organ injuries (n = 57), and non-traumatic but earthquake related illness (n = 55). Seventy seven per cent of patients were hospitalised during the first three days after the earthquake. The rate of mortality associated with the crush syndrome, vital organ injury, and non-traumatic medical problems was 21% (23/110), 17.5% (10/57), and 9% (5/55), respectively. The overall mortality rate was 8% (50/645). Conclusions: In the first 24–48 hours after a major earthquake, hospital emergency departments are flooded with large numbers of patients. Among this patient load, those patients with crush syndrome or vital organ injuries are particularly at risk. Proper triage and prompt treatment of these seriously injured earthquake victims may decrease morbidity and mortality. It is hoped that this review of the challenges met after the Marmara earthquake and the lessons learned will be of use to emergency department physicians as well as hospital emergency planners in preparing for future natural disasters