Seasonal dynamic factor analysis and bootstrap inference : application to electricity market forecasting

Year-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is an important issue in the current context of electricity markets. Nevertheless, only one-day-ahead forecasting is commonly tackled up in previous published works. Moreover, methodology developed for the short-term does not work properly for long-term forecasting. In this paper we provide a seasonal extension of the Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, to deal with the interesting problem (both from the economic and engineering point of view) of long term forecasting of electricity prices. Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA) allows to deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series, in such a way that extracts common and specific components. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal one, by means of common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p,d,q)×(P,D,Q)s model. Besides, a bootstrap procedure is proposed to be able to make inference on all the parameters involved in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing to enhance the coverage of forecast confidence intervals. Concerning the innovative and challenging application provided, bootstrap procedure developed allows to calculate not only point forecasts but also forecasting intervals for electricity prices.Dynamic factor analysis, Bootstrap, Forecasting, Confidence intervals

Optimització del rendiment i l'eficiència en un departament de manteniment industrial

Aquest projecte pretén ser una guia per organitzar i gestionar departaments de manteniment industrial de forma eficient. Per tal de poder guiar correctament, engloba tots els aspectes d’una forma general, des dels més operatius als més relacionals, i permetrà al lector detectar àrees de millora on poder aprofundir posteriorment. És aquella guia que m’agradaria que m’haguessin donat quan vaig començar a agafar responsabilitats dins el departament de manteniment. Està enfocat per a nous caps de manteniment, nous managers de manteniment, directors que vulguin entendre millor el departament de manteniment o vulguin crear-ne un a la companyia. Per tal d’ubicar al lector, començarem amb la definició, la història i l’evolució del manteniment des de la revolució industrial. Continuarem amb la definició de les operacions que es realitzen actualment per fer manteniment, però que no necessàriament estan totes executades pel departament de manteniment. Situarem al manteniment en l’estructura de la companyia i veurem les possibles estructures internes que pots arribar a adoptar. També coneixerem els costos del departament i la naturalesa d’aquests per poder treballar-los i controlar-los. Enfocarem el final del treball a les eines més útils i utilitzades per a la gestió del manteniment, com pot ser la plataforma de software GMAO, indicadors de control (KPI), mètodes i eines per a la seguretat laboral, etc. Finalment, repassarem la legalitat espanyola relacionada amb el manteniment d’instal·lacions industrials.This project aims to be a guide for organizing and managing industrial maintenance departments efficiently. In order to provide proper guidance, it covers all aspects in a general way, from operational to relational, allowing the reader to identify areas for improvement to delve into later. It is the kind of guide I wish I had been given when I first took on responsibilities within the maintenance department. It is intended for new maintenance supervisors, new maintenance managers, directors who want a better understanding of the maintenance department, or those who want to establish one within their company. To situate the reader, we will begin with the definition, history, and evolution of maintenance since the industrial revolution. We will then delve into the current operations involved in maintenance, which may not necessarily be carried out exclusively by the maintenance department. We will explore the placement of maintenance within the company's structure and examine the possible internal structures that can be adopted. We will also explore the department's costs and their nature, in order to manage and control them effectively. Towards the end of the project, we will focus on the most useful and commonly used tools for maintenance management, such as Computerized Maintenance Management Systems (CMMS), control indicators (KPIs), methods and tools for occupational safety, and more. Finally, we will review the Spanish legislation related to the maintenance of industrial facilities

Socialización y proceso de construcción de la identidad profesional del educador físico de una prisión

The purpose of this paper is to explore the construction of the professional identity of Alex (a pseudonym), a physical educator in charge of sport and physical activity in a Spanish prison. To this end, we used a biographical-dialectic perspective based mainly on interviews especially focused on prior experiences, contextual resources and the micropolitical strategies Alex used in his workplace. The search for better job conditions and professional recognition mediated the strategies he used during the daily negotiation of his professional identity. Yet, this identity was also constructed in a dialogue between his experiences in sport and the performance discourse present at the macro-social level. This study exemplifies a particular, yet not unique case of professional socialization that helps illuminate the (re)construction of identity of those physical activity and sport professionals who work in marginal contexts

Hand Hygiene Teaching Strategies among Nursing Staff: A Systematic Review

Background: Patient safety is a priority of any healthcare system, and one of the most effective measures is hand hygiene. For this, it is important that health staff have correct adherence and perform the technique properly. Otherwise, the incidence of nosocomial infections can increase, with consequent complications. The aim here was to analyze hand hygiene training and the effectiveness of different methods and educational strategies among nurses and whether they maintained correct adherence over time. Results: n = 17 clinical trials were included, with a total of 5747 nurses and nursing students. Strategies such as reminder sounds, practical simulations, videos, and audiovisual media improved handwashing compliance. Adherence overtime increased by up to 60%. The greatest effectiveness was related to the use of povidone–iodine, which reduced colony formation compared Hand hygiene teaching strategies among nursing staff: a systematic review to soap. Conclusions: The strategies that go beyond teaching techniques such as lectures may be more effective at increasing hand hygiene compliance. Combined approaches to learning/instruction improve user satisfaction by enabling self-management, flexibility, and repetition

Frictions, cracks and micro-resistances: physical activity and sport as strategies to dignify imprisoned women

Discipline and control are key concepts within industrial and capitalist societies. In this context, prisons are a warning tool about the consequences of non-conformity [Foucault, M., 1995. Discipline and Punish: The birth of Prison. NY: Vintage Books]. As a result, punitive power is used as a corrective technique to transform prisoners into docile and useful citizen. However, power in prison is no static and inmates can create various strategies of resistance. The aim of this research is to understand how physical activity and sport are used by incarcerated women to confront social control and negotiate power relations. Underpinned within a critical feminist epistemology, we interviewed 16 women about their prison sports experience. According to the interviewees, physical activity and sport helped them to cope with the sentence while it was a useful tool confronting and negotiating the patriarchal punitive power. The women pointed out that the prison did not fully subdue them. Also, they highlighted their abilities to minimally destabilize the prison order. This enabled them to regain some autonomy and identity, while opposing to the total institution. Engaging in physical practices enabled incarcerated women to create small spaces of freedom and frictions within a limiting a prohibitive prison environmen

Participative assessment and student s negotiation: a proposal based on the Pedagogy of Ignorance

[EN] The participation of students in as many facets of their education as possible is related to a democratic education, perhaps even with emancipatory intentions. This article describes and critically assesses an experience in which future teachers in training discussed and decided the evaluation system of a subject, as well as the qualification criteria. To do this, teachers adopted the Pedagogy of Ignorance, based on the postulates of the French philosopher Rancière. Innovation was evaluated from the interpretive paradigm. From this point of view, the data were collected through the reflexive diaries of the students and teachers and two discussion groups. Thus, after the analysis, the data show the complexity of the negotiation task, supported by a multitude of sessions dedicated to it, but also reflect its usefulness for understanding evaluation, its values and benefits, and its reflective power. In this sense, the students moved between satisfaction with the transfer of authority and the need to accumulate knowledge. In addition, the paper shows the teachers emotions caused by a very complex innovation, such as a certain restlessness. That said, it is concluded that these experiences are necessary for a critical and reflective formation, to a certain extent counter-hegemonic, although they are still simulations of emancipation.[ES] La participación del alumnado en cuantas facetas de su educación sea posible está relacionada con una educación democrática, puede que incluso con intenciones de emancipación. Este artículo describe y valora críticamente una experiencia en la que futuro profesorado en formación discutió y decidió el sistema de evaluación de una asignatura, así como los criterios de calificación. Para ello, los docentes adoptaron la Pedagogía de la Ignorancia, basada en los postulados del filósofo francés Rancière. La innovación fue evaluada desde el paradigma interpretativo. Bajo este prisma, los datos se recogieron mediante diarios reflexivos tanto del alumnado participante como de los docentes e investigadores, así como con dos grupos de discusión. El análisis posterior de los datos evidencia la complejidad de la tarea de negociación, avalada por multitud de sesiones dedicadas a ella, al mismo tiempo que reflejan su utilidad para entender la evaluación, sus valores y bondades y su poder reflexivo. En este sentido, el alumnado se movió entre la satisfacción por la cesión de autoridad y la preocupación por su necesidad de acumular conocimientos. Además, se hacen explícitas las emociones provocadas en los profesores al implementar una innovación de este calado, como cierto desasosiego. Con todo, se concluye que estas experiencias son necesarias para una formación crítica y reflexiva, hasta cierto punto contrahegemónicas, aunque no dejan de ser simulacros de emancipación.Martos Garcia, D.; García Puchades, W. (2023). La evaluación participativa y la negociación con el alumnado: una propuesta basada en la Pedagogía de la Ignorancia. REDU. Revista de Docencia Universitaria. 21(1):129-146. https://doi.org/10.4995/redu.2023.1737212914621

Percepción y Grado de satisfacción familiar con el programa de Mentorías Universitarias para ACIs MENTORAC UMA 2013-2014

En MENTORAC UMA se realizaron 17 talleres de enriquecimiento desde febrero a junio de 2014, dirigidos a alumnado de entre 14 y 17 años, identificado con altas capacidades intelectuales (ACIs). Las actividades fueron desarrolladas por 16 profesores universitarios, que actuaron de mentores. Al finalizar el programa en septiembre de 2014, se reunió a las familias de los 90 alumnos participantes y se diseñó ad hoc el Cuestionario de Valoración para familias Mentorac (CVF-M), para medir diferentes dimensiones como la satisfacción con el programa, el beneficio escolar, el aumento de la motivación académica, o el grado de confort intelectual y personal del alumnado asistente, entre otros aspectos. Los resultados muestran un alto grado de satisfacción general con el programa. Se presentan y discuten los beneficios que, según los padres y madres, han obtenido los alumnos asistentes, así como los aspectos de mejora que solicitaron las familias encuestadas.universidad de malaga, campus de excelencia inetrnacional andalucia tec

A FAMÍLIA RECONSTITUÍDA E A RENDA FAMILIAR: O PARENTESCO SOCIOAFETIVO E SEUS REFLEXOS NO ÂMBITO ASSISTENCIAL

Percebe-se que o Direito de Família vem sofrendo uma constante evolução ao longo do tempo, revelando-se mais incisiva a partir do advento do Texto Constitucional de 1988. Anteriormente os institutos do Direito de Família não observavam a igualdade entre os membros do núcleo familiar, havia uma configuração patriarcal, sendo a cônjuge e filhos submissos a figura do pater família. Também, a tutela jurídica do Direito de Família se dava pelas relações casamentarias. Com a promulgação da Constituição Federal de 1988 a compreensão da família passou a integrar a estrutura constitucional, sendo elevada a uma de suas bases. A busca da identificação dos vínculos familiares torna imperioso o uso de novos referenciais, como o reconhecimento da filiação socioafetiva por meio da posse do estado de filho. Assim sendo, o presente artigo analisa a valorização do afeto no reconhecimento destes novos nichos familiares emergentes firmando um diálogo entre Direito Previdenciário e de Família. Não obstante, o parentesco socioafetivo gera todos os efeitos jurídicos inerentes ao núcleo família. Todavia, em hipótese alguma poderá ser confundido com as relações mantidas entre padrasto/madrastas e seus enteados. Diante disso, não se pode fazer uso de renda do padrasto/madrastas para a caracterização da renda familiar, por não haver elemento essencial de formação de entidade familiar.  Assim sendo, pretende-se com o presente artigo demonstrar a família moldada pelo afeto e sua repercussão no âmbito assistencial pela análise da renda familiar

Evaluación formativa y compartida en el uso de edublogs para aumentar la participación del alumnado en sus procesos de enseñanza-aprendizaje

El objetivo de este trabajo fue mostrar el grado de participación del alumnado en las diversas experiencias educativas llevadas a la práctica por profesorado perteneciente a un grupo de innovación educativa relacionadas con la evaluación formativa a través del uso de edublogs. Para ello se analizaron 27 acciones formativas distintas en las que participaron 2303 estudiantes durante los cursos 13/14 y 14/15. El porcentaje de participación del alumnado aumenta conforme lo hace la interactividad de los diferentes tipos de blog y según se otorgue mayor protagonismo a éste en su evaluación. En conclusión, los edublogs son un recurso útil y práctico para aumentar la participación e implicación del alumnado en su proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje, aunque no siempre se llevan a cabo procesos reales de evaluación formativa y compartida, ni se tiene en cuenta a la hora de calificar al alumnado