Morphometric discrimination of two sympatric sibling species in the Palaearctic region, Culicoides obsoletus Meigen and C-scoticus Downes & Kettle (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), vectors of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses

Background Some Palaearctic biting midge species (subgenus Avaritia) have been implicated as vectors of bluetongue virus in northern Europe. Separation of two species (C. obsoletus and C. scoticus) is considered difficult morphologically and, often, these female specimens are grouped in entomological studies. However, species-specific identification is desirable to understand their life history characteristics, assess their roles in disease transmission or measure their abundance during arboviral outbreaks. This study aims to investigate whether morphometric identification techniques can be applied to female C. obsoletus and C. scoticus individuals trapped at different geographical regions and time periods during the vector season. Methods C. obsoletus and C. scoticus were collected using light-suction traps from the UK, France and Spain, with two geographical locations sampled per country. A total of 759 C. obsoletus/C. scoticus individuals were identified using a molecular assay based on the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. Fifteen morphometric measurements were taken from the head, wings and abdomen of slide-mounted specimens, and ratios calculated between these measurements. Multivariate analyses explored whether a combination of morphometric variables could lead to accurate species identification. Finally, Culicoides spp. collected in France at the start, middle and end of the adult vector season were compared, to determine whether seasonal variation exists in any of the morphometric measurements. Results The principal component analyses revealed that abdominal characteristics: length and width of the smaller and larger spermathecae, and the length of the chitinous plates and width between them, are the most reliable morphometric characteristics to differentiate between the species. Seasonal variation in the size of each species was observed for head and wing measurements, but not abdominal measurements. Geographical variation in the size of Culicoides spp. was also observed and is likely to be related to temperature at the trapping sites, with smaller individuals trapped at more southern latitudes. Conclusions Our results suggest that female C. obsoletus and C. scoticus individuals can be separated under a stereomicroscope using abdominal measurements. Although we show the length and width of the spermathecae can be used to differentiate between the species, this can be time-consuming, so we recommend undertaking this using standardized subsampling of catches. (Résumé d'auteur

The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak

In 2006, bluetongue (BT), a disease of ruminants, was introduced into northern Europe for the first time and more than two thousand farms across five countries were affected. In 2007, BT affected more than 35,000 farms in France and Germany alone. By contrast, the UK outbreak beginning in 2007 was relatively small, with only 135 farms in southeast England affected. We use a model to investigate the effects of three factors on the scale of BT outbreaks in the UK: (1) place of introduction; (2) temperature; and (3) animal movement restrictions. Our results suggest that the UK outbreak could have been much larger had the infection been introduced into the west of England either directly or as a result of the movement of infected animals from southeast England before the first case was detected. The fact that air temperatures in the UK in 2007 were marginally lower than average probably contributed to the UK outbreak being relatively small. Finally, our results indicate that BT movement restrictions are effective at controlling the spread of infection. However, foot-and-mouth disease restrictions in place before the detection and control of BT in 2007 almost certainly helped to limit BT spread prior to its detection

Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland

Europe has seen frequent outbreaks of Bluetongue (BT) disease since 2006, including an outbreak of BT virus serotype 8 in central France during 2015 that has continued to spread in Europe during 2016. Thus, assessing the potential for BTv-8 spread and determining the optimal deployment of vaccination is critical for contingency planning. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of BTv-8 spread in Scotland and explored the sensitivity of transmission to key disease spread parameters for which detailed empirical data is lacking. With parameters at mean values, there is little spread of BTv-8 in Scotland. However, under a “worst case” but still feasible scenario with parameters at the limits of their ranges and temperatures 1 °C warmer than the mean, we find extensive spread with 203,000 sheep infected given virus introduction to the south of Scotland between mid-May and mid-June. Strategically targeted vaccine interventions can greatly reduce BT spread. Specifically, despite BT having most clinical impact in sheep, we show that vaccination can have the greatest impact on reducing BTv infections in sheep when administered to cattle, which has implications for disease control policy

A novel haemocytometric COVID-19 prognostic score developed and validated in an observational multicentre European hospital-based study

COVID-19 induces haemocytometric changes. Complete blood count changes, including new cell activation parameters, from 982 confirmed COVID-19 adult patients from 11 European hospitals were retrospectively analysed for distinctive patterns based on age, gender, clinical severity, symptom duration, and hospital days. The observed haemocytometric patterns formed the basis to develop a multi-haemocytometric-parameter prognostic score to predict, during the first three days after presentation, which patients will recover without ventilation or deteriorate within a two-week timeframe, needing intensive care or with fatal outcome. The prognostic score, with ROC curve AUC at baseline of 0.753 (95% CI 0.723-0.781) increasing to 0.875 (95% CI 0.806-0.926) on day 3, was superior to any individual parameter at distinguishing between clinical severity. Findings were confirmed in a validation cohort. Aim is that the score and haemocytometry results are simultaneously provided by analyser software, enabling wide applicability of the score as haemocytometry is commonly requested in COVID-19 patients

A novel haemocytometric covid-19 prognostic score developed and validated in an observational multicentre european hospital-based study

COVID-19 induces haemocytometric changes. Complete blood count changes, including new cell activation parameters, from 982 confirmed COVID-19 adult patients from 11 European hospitals were retrospectively analysed for distinctive patterns based on age, gender, clinical severity, symptom duration and hospital days. The observed haemocytometric patterns formed the basis to develop a multi-haemocytometric-parameter prognostic score to predict, during the first three days after presentation, which patients will recover without ventilation or deteriorate within a two-week timeframe, needing intensive care or with fatal outcome. The prognostic score, with ROC curve AUC at baseline of 0.753 (95% CI 0.723-0.781) increasing to 0.875 (95% CI 0.806-0.926) on day 3, was superior to any individual parameter at distinguishing between clinical severity. Findings were confirmed in a validation cohort. Aim is that the score and haemocytometry results are simultaneously provided by analyser software, enabling wide applicability of the score as haemocytometry is commonly requested in COVID-19 patients

Quantifying the roles of host movement and vector dispersal in the transmission of vector-borne diseases of livestock

The role of host movement in the spread of vector-borne diseases of livestock has been little studied. Here we develop a mathematical framework that allows us to disentangle and quantify the roles of vector dispersal and livestock movement in transmission between farms. We apply this framework to outbreaks of bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in Great Britain, both of which are spread by Culicoides biting midges and have recently emerged in northern Europe. For BTV we estimate parameters by fitting the model to outbreak data using approximate Bayesian computation, while for SBV we use previously derived estimates. We find that around 90% of transmission of BTV between farms is a result of vector dispersal, while for SBV this proportion is 98%. This difference is a consequence of higher vector competence and shorter duration of viraemia for SBV compared with BTV. For both viruses we estimate that the mean number of secondary infections per infected farm is greater than one for vector dispersal, but below one for livestock movements. Although livestock movements account for a small proportion of transmission and cannot sustain an outbreak on their own, they play an important role in establishing new foci of infection. However, the impact of restricting livestock movements on the spread of both viruses depends critically on assumptions made about the distances over which vector dispersal occurs. If vector dispersal occurs primarily at a local scale (99% of transmission occurs <25 km), movement restrictions are predicted to be effective at reducing spread, but if dispersal occurs frequently over longer distances (99% of transmission occurs <50 km) they are not

Bluetongue risk under future climates

There is concern that climate change will lead to expansion of vector-borne diseases as, of all disease types, they are the most sensitive to climate drivers1. Such expansion may threaten human health, and food security via effects on animal and crop health. Here we quantify the potential impact of climate change on a vector-borne disease of livestock, bluetongue, which has emerged in northern Europe in response to climate change2–4, affecting tens of thousands of farms at huge financial cost and causing the deaths of millions of animals5. We derive future disease risk trends for northern Europe, and use a detailed spatial transmission model6 to simulate outbreaks in England and Wales under future climatic conditions, using an ensemble of five downscaled general circulation models7. By 2100, bluetongue risk extends further north, the transmission season lengthens by up to three months and outbreaks are larger on average. A 1 in 20-year outbreak at present-day temperatures becomes typical by the 2070s under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario. However, animal movement restrictions are sufficient to prevent truly devastating outbreaks. Disease transmission uncertainty dominates over climate uncertainty, even at the longest prediction timescales. Our results suggest that efficient detection and control measures to limit the spread of vector-borne diseases will be increasingly vital in future, warmer climates. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

Spatial distribution of Bluetongue surveillance and cases in Switzerland

Swiss Bluetongue surveillance from mid 2007 to mid 2008 was a combination of monthly bulk milk testing of 200 cattle herds in zones of higher risk for vector presence and intensification of passive clinical surveillance. The spatial scan statistic and Moran's 1 statistic were used to determine clustering of surveillance data. The results show a high level of surveillance intensity for BT in Switzerland in 2007. In the region encompassing the Cantons of Aargau, Basel-Landschaft, Basel-Stadt and Solothurn, where cases were detected in 2007, the surveillance was significantly higher than in the rest of Switzerland. Six cases of Bluetongue were detected within the surveillance system. The prevalence estimates 9.62% (95% CI = 3.25%-18.85% versus 0.98% (95% CI = 0.2%-2.22%) were also significantly higher in the area with higher surveillance intensity. Spatial variation in surveillance data should to be considered if a disease event is analysed on a national scale. The spatial variation of prevalence estimates should be considered in future Bluetongue surveillance in Switzerland

Additional file 1: of Morphometric discrimination of two sympatric sibling species in the Palaearctic region, Culicoides obsoletus Meigen and C. scoticus Downes & Kettle (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), vectors of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses

Correlation matrices of 15 morphometric characteristics, and 8 ratios derived from these characteristics, for C. obsoletus and C. scoticus. (DOCX 43 kb