EL «Ensayo encaminado a resolver un problema en la doctrina del azar»

El trabajo consta de una introducción biográfica en el que se recogen las pocas cosas que se conocen de la vida de Thomas Bayes. A continuación se tratan los antecedentes del problema de la probabilidad inversa y se comenta el Ensayo. Se recogen también tres aplicaciones añadidas al trabajo original de Thomas Bayes por Richard Price. Se incluyen las opiniones que el Ensayo ha suscitado a algunos eminentes estadísticos. [ABSTRACT] This work starts with a biographical introduction inc1uding a few things known of Thomas Bayes life. It is followed by the background to the inverse probability problem and the comments about the Essay. Three applications added to the original job of Thomas Bayes by Richard Price are included. Several opinions about the Essay given by some scientific figures are embodied at the end of the paper

Epsilon contaminated priors in testing point null hypothesis: a procedure to determine the prior probability

In this paper the problem of testing a point null hypothesis from the Bayesian perspective and the relation between this and the classical approach is studied. A procedure to determine the mixed prior distribution is introduced and a justification for this construction based on a measure of discrepancy is given. Then, we compare a lower bound for the posterior probability, when the prior is in the class of -contaminated distributions, of the point null hypothesis with the p-value

epsilon-Contaminated priors in contingency tables

An r x s table is used for different approaches to statistical inference. We develop a Bayesian procedure to test simple null hypotheses versus bilateral alternatives in contingency tables. We consider testing equality of proportions of independent multinomial distributions when the common proportions are known. A lower bound of the posterior probabilities of the null hypothesis is calculated with respect to a mixture of a point prior on the null and an epsilon-contaminated prior on the proportions under the alternative. The resulting Bayes tests are compared numerically to Pearson's chi(2) in a number of examples. For the examined examples the lower bound and the p-value can be made close. The obtained results are generalized when the common proportions vector under the null is unknown or has a known functional form

Thomas Bayes (1701?-1761) en su centenario

Semblanza biográfica de Thomas Baye

Vaccination of Gilthead Seabream After Continuous Xenoestrogen Oral Exposure Enhances the Gut Endobolome and Immune Status via GPER1

In fish culture settings, the exogenous input of steroids is a matter of concern. Recently, we unveiled that in the gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata), the G protein-coupled estrogen receptor agonist G-1 (G1) and the endocrine disruptor 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2) are potent modulators in polyreactive antibody production. However, the integral role of the microbiota upon immunity and antibody processing in response to the effect of EE2 remains largely unexplored. Here, juvenile seabreams continuously exposed for 84 days to oral G1 or EE2 mixed in the fish food were intraperitoneally (i.p.) immune primed on day 42 with the model antigen keyhole limpet hemocyanin (KLH). A critical panel of systemic and mucosal immune markers, serum VTG, and humoral, enzymatic, and bacteriolytic activities were recorded and correlated with gut bacterial metagenomic analysis 1 day post-priming (dpp). Besides, at 15 dpp, animals received a boost to investigate the possible generation of specific anti-KLH antibodies at the systemic and mucosal interphases by the end of the trial. On day 43, EE2 but not G1 induced a significant shift in the serum VTG level of naive fish. Simultaneously, significant changes in some immune enzymatic activities in the serum and gut mucus of the EE2-treated group were recorded. In comparison, the vaccine priming immunization resulted in an attenuated profile of most enzymatic activities in the same group. The gut genes qPCR analysis exhibited a related pattern, only emphasized by a significant shift in the EE2 group’s il1b expression. The gut bacterial microbiome status underwent 16S rRNA dynamic changes in alpha diversity indices, only with the exposure to oral G1, supporting functional alterations on cellular processes, signaling, and lipid metabolism in the microbiota. By the same token, the immunization elevated the relative abundance of Fusobacteria only in the control group, while this phylum was depleted in both the treated groups. Remarkably, the immunization also promoted changes in the bacterial class Betaproteobacteria and the estrogen-associated genus Novosphingobium. Furthermore, systemic and mucosal KLH-specific immunoglobulin (Ig)M and IgT levels in the fully vaccinated fish showed only slight changes 84 days post-estrogenic oral administration. In summary, our results highlight the intrinsic relationship among estrogens, their associated receptors, and immunization in the ubiquitous fish immune regulation and the subtle but significant crosstalk with the gut endobolome.Versión del edito

Direct costs involved in providing medical attention associated with traffic accidents in Bogotá

Objetivo Determinar los costos de atención médica generados por la accidentalidad vial en Bogotá. Metodología Estudio observacional prospectivo con datos de pacientes mayores de edad atendidos en la central de urgencias de 6 instituciones hospitalarias. Resultados El promedio del costo total de atención por paciente fue de $1 112 000 el costo promedio día de paciente hospitalizado fue de$1 200 000. Pacientes con atención ambulatoria tuvieron un costo promedio de $247400. El costo promedio por accidente se calculó en$2 333 700. Los costos médicos por accidentes en el periodo de análisis en Bogotá fueron aproximadamente $2 301 028 200. Cifras en pesos colombianos de 2011. Conclusiones Los costos de la atención médica de los accidentes de tránsito constituyen una carga económica considerable.Objective To determine the cost of medical attention associated with traffic accidents in Bogotá, Colombia. Methods Prospective observational study with data from adult patients attended to in the emergency centers of 6 hospitals. Results Average total cost per patient was$1 112 000 COP. Average daily cost of hospitalized patients was $1 200 000 COP. Average cost of ambulatory treated patients ascended to$247 400 COP. Cost per accident calculated was $2 333 700 COP. In the whole city during study period, total medical costs were around$2 301 028 200 COP. All data was expressed in 2011 colombian pesos. Conclusion The medical cost of transit accidents is a significant economic burden

Direct costs involved in providing medical attention associated with traffic accidents in Bogotá

Objetivo Determinar los costos de atención médica generados por la accidentalidad vial en Bogotá. Metodología Estudio observacional prospectivo con datos de pacientes mayores de edad atendidos en la central de urgencias de 6 instituciones hospitalarias. Resultados El promedio del costo totalde atención por paciente fue de $1'112.000 El costo promedio día de paciente hospitalizado fue de$1'200.000. Pacientes con atención ambulatoria tuvieron un costo promedio de $247.400. El costo promedio por accidente se calculó en$2'333.700. Los costos médicos por accidentes en el periodo de análisis en Bogotá fueron aproximadamente $2.301'028.200. Cifras en pesos de 2011. Conclusiones Los costos de la atención médica de los accidentes de tránsito constituyen una carga económica considerable.Artículo de investigación673-682Objective To determine the cost of medical attention associated with traffic accidents in Bogotá, Colombia. Methods Prospective observational study with data from adult patients attended to in the emergency centers of 6 hospitals. Results Average total cost per patient was$1'112.000 COP. Average daily cost of hospitalized patients was $1'200.000 COP. Average cost of ambulatory treated patients ascended to$247.400 COP. Cost per accident calculated was $2'333.700 COP. In the whole city during study period, total medical costs were around$2.301'028.200 COP. All data was expressed in 2011 Colombian pesos

High prevalence of strongyloidiasis in spain : A hospital-based study

Strongyloidiasis is a prevailing helminth infection ubiquitous in tropical and subtropical areas, however, seroprevalence data are scarce in migrant populations, particularly for those coming for Asia. This study aims at evaluating the prevalence of S. stercoralis at the hospital level in migrant populations or long term travellers being attended in out-patient and in-patient units as part of a systematic screening implemented in six Spanish hospitals. A cross-sectional study was conducted and systematic screening for S. stercoralis infection using serological tests was offered to all eligible participants. The overall seroprevalence of S. stercoralis was 9.04% (95%CI 7.76-10.31). The seroprevalence of people with a risk of infection acquired in Africa and Latin America was 9.35% (95%CI 7.01-11.69), 9.22% (7.5-10.93), respectively. The number of individuals coming from Asian countries was significantly smaller and the overall prevalence in these countries was 2.9% (95%CI −0.3-6.2). The seroprevalence in units attending potentially immunosuppressed patients was significantly lower (5.64%) compared with other units of the hospital (10.20%) or Tropical diseases units (13.33%) (p < 0.001). We report a hospital-based strongyloidiasis seroprevalence of almost 10% in a mobile population coming from endemic areas suggesting the need of implementing strongyloidiasis screening in hospitalized patients coming from endemic areas, particularly if they are at risk of immunosuppression

Trends in Adherence to the Mediterranean Diet in Spanish Children and Adolescents across Two Decades.

Unhealthy dietary habits determined during childhood may represent a risk factor to many of the chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in adulthood. Mediterranean Diet (MD) adherence in children and adolescents (8–16 years) living in Spain was investigated using the KIDMED questionnaire in a comparative analysis of two cross-sectional nationwide representative studies: enKid (1998–2000, n = 1001) and PASOS (2019–2020, n = 3540). Taking into account the educational level of pupils, as well as the characteristics of the place of living, a significant association was found between a KIDMED score ≥ 8 (optimal MD adherence) and primary education as well as residency in an area of <50,000 inhabitants, while living in the southern regions was associated with non-optimal MD adherence (p < 0.001). Participants of the 2019–2020 study showed an increase in the consumption of dairy products (31.1% increase), pasta/rice (15.4% increase), olive oil (16.9% increase), and nuts (9.7% increase), as well as a decreased sweets and candies intake (12.6% reduction). In contrast, a significantly lower MD adherence was found when comparing the 2019–2020 (mean ± SE: 6.9 ± 0.04) and the 1998–2000 study (7.37 ± 0.08); p < 0.001), due to less consumption of fish (20.3% reduction), pulse (19.4% reduction), and fruits (14.9% reduction), and an increased intake of commercial goods/pastries or fast-food intake (both 19.4% increase). The lowest adherence was recorded for adolescents also in the most recent study, where 10.9% of them presented a KIDMED score ≤ 3. This study shows that eating habits are deteriorating among Spanish children and adolescents. Such findings point out the urgency of undertaking strong measures to promote the consumption of healthy, sustainable, and non-ultra-processed food, such as those available in an MD, not only at a scientific and academic level, but also at a governmental onePartial funding for open access charge: Universidad de Málag