The Economic Effects of Malaria Eradication: Evidence from an Intervention in Uganda

This study evaluates the economic consequences of a malaria eradication campaign in the southwestern Ugandan district of Kigezi. The project was a joint venture between the WHO and Uganda's Ministry of Health, designed to test for the first time the feasibility of malaria eradication in a sub-Saharan African country. During the years of 1959 and 1960, eradication efforts employing DDT spraying and mass distribution of anti-malarials were implemented, beginning in northern Kigezi. Follow-up studies reported a drop in overall parasite rates from 22.7 to 0.5% in hyperendemic areas and from 12.5 to 0% in mesoendemic areas. We use this campaign as a plausibly exogenous health shock to explore changes in human-capital formation and income. We employ a difference-in-difference methodology to show that eradication produced differential improvements in Kigezi compare to the rest of Uganda in years of schooling, literacy, and primary school completion. In addition, we find suggestive evidence that eradication increased income levels.human capital, malaria, economic development and health

National and Subnational Cardiovascular Diseases Mortality Attributable to Salt Consumption in Iran by Sex and Age From 1990 to 2016

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Prevalence and Burden of Refractive Errors at National and Sub-national Levels in Iran

Purpose: To estimate the prevalence, burden of refractive errors and their associated trend from 1990 to 2018 and geographic inequalities in Iran. Methods: Data regarding the epidemiology of refractive errors was extracted from three different sources: systematic review of published literature, data from visual school screening programs, and data from Iran’s national health survey (NHS). The pool of all available data on refractive errors as well as demographic, location, and socioeconomic status covariates were fitted in spatio-temporal and Gaussian process regression models to predict the prevalence of refractive errors from the years 1990 to 2018 in 31 provinces grouped by age and sex in order to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Results: In 2018, the age-adjusted prevalence of refractive errors was 16.32% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 12.44–21.48%) in both sexes, 17.98% (95% UI: 13.74– 23.61%) in women, and 14.66% (95% UI: 11.14–19.36%) in men. The prevalence of refractive errors reveals that it increases with age. Refractive errors contributed to 441.41 and 348.38 YLDs in men and women, respectively. The age-standardized prevalence growth was 31.30% in females and 24.32% in males from the years 1990 to 2018. Significant geographical heterogeneity was observed. The age-standardized YLDs rates of refractive errors represent an increasing trend of 28.9% increase from 1990 to 2018. Conclusion: Over 28 years, the prevalence of refractive errors increased significantly. Women tend to have higher rates of prevalence. The prevalence increased in older ages. Border provinces had the lowest prevalence. Age-standardized YLDs rates of refractive errors increased by about 30%

A framework for exploration and cleaning of environmental data : Tehran air quality data experience

Management and cleaning of large environmental monitored data sets is a specific challenge. In this article, the authors present a novel framework for exploring and cleaning large datasets. As a case study, we applied the method on air quality data of Tehran, Iran from 1996 to 2013. ; The framework consists of data acquisition [here, data of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm (PM10)], development of databases, initial descriptive analyses, removing inconsistent data with plausibility range, and detection of missing pattern. Additionally, we developed a novel tool entitled spatiotemporal screening tool (SST), which considers both spatial and temporal nature of data in process of outlier detection. We also evaluated the effect of dust storm in outlier detection phase.; The raw mean concentration of PM10 before implementation of algorithms was 88.96 µg/m3 for 1996-2013 in Tehran. After implementing the algorithms, in total, 5.7% of data points were recognized as unacceptable outliers, from which 69% data points were detected by SST and 1% data points were detected via dust storm algorithm. In addition, 29% of unacceptable outlier values were not in the PR.  The mean concentration of PM10 after implementation of algorithms was 88.41 µg/m3. However, the standard deviation was significantly decreased from 90.86 µg/m3 to 61.64 µg/m3 after implementation of the algorithms. There was no distinguishable significant pattern according to hour, day, month, and year in missing data.; We developed a novel framework for cleaning of large environmental monitored data, which can identify hidden patterns. We also presented a complete picture of PM10 from 1996 to 2013 in Tehran. Finally, we propose implementation of our framework on large spatiotemporal databases, especially in developing countries

National and sub-national trend of prevalence and burden of dementia in Iran, from 1990 to 2013; Study protocol

Background: Dementia is a disabling syndrome, which generally affects aged population more than any other age groups. This syndrome has a growing prevalence and incidence worldwide. The prevalence and burden of this group of diseases in Iran have not been estimated in a community-based study yet. This paper aims to explain the systematic approach, data sources, research methodology, and statistical analysis that will be used to quantify the prevalence and burden of dementia at national and sub-national levels. Methods: This is the protocol of a secondary data study that explains the design and method of conducting the study. We will use several sources of data that will include a systematic review of articles and gray literature which have reported the prevalence or incidence of dementia and its uncertainty at national and sub-national levels in Iran, in addition to data about dementia-specific drug sales per each year at provincial levels, as well as data extracted from 23 million health insurance prescriptions over 8 years and some data from medical documents of Iranian Alzheimer's Association members. The technical groups of National and Sub-national Burden of Disease will collect some covariate data, such as age and sex structure of population, urbanization status, mean years of schooling, plasma cholesterol, fasting plasma glucose, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure at provincial levels which will be used in our models. Two statistical models, namely spatio-temporal and hierarchical autoregressive models, will be used for interpolation and extrapolation of missing data. Conclusion: It seems that the study of national and subnational burden of dementia could provide more accurate estimation of prevalence and burden of dementia in Iran with an acceptable level of uncertainty than the previous studies

Heart failure care in low-and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

In a systematic review and meta-analysis, Kazem Rahimi and colleagues examine the burden of heart failure in low- and middle-income countries. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summar

One-step versus two-step screening for diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus in Iranian population : A randomized community trial

publishedVersio

Evaluating equality in prescribing Novel Oral Anticoagulants (NOACs) in England: the protocol of a Bayesian small area analysis

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, affecting about 1.6% of the population in England. Novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are approved AF treatments that reduce stroke risk. In this study, we estimate the equality in individual NOAC prescriptions with high spatial resolution in Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) across England from 2014 to 2019. Methods A Bayesian spatio-temporal model will be used to estimate and predict the individual NOAC prescription trend on ‘prescription data’ as an indicator of health services utilisation, using a small area analysis methodology. The main dataset in this study is the “Practice Level Prescribing in England,” which contains four individual NOACs prescribed by all registered GP practices in England. We will use the defined daily dose (DDD) equivalent methodology, as recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), to compare across space and time. Four licensed NOACs datasets will be summed per 1,000 patients at the CCG-level over time. We will also adjust for CCG-level covariates, such as demographic data, Multiple Deprivation Index, and rural-urban classification. We aim to employ the extended BYM2 model (space-time model) using the RStan package. Discussion This study suggests a new statistical modelling approach to link prescription and socioeconomic data to model pharmacoepidemiologic data. Quantifying space and time differences will allow for the evaluation of inequalities in the prescription of NOACs. The methodology will help develop geographically targeted public health interventions, campaigns, audits, or guidelines to improve areas of low prescription. This approach can be used for other medications, especially those used for chronic diseases that must be monitored over time

National and sub-national HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Iran, 1990–2015: a population-based modeling study

Surveillance of HIV/AIDS mortality is crucial to evaluate a country’s response to the disease. With a modified estimation approach, this study aimed to provide more accurate estimates on deaths due to HIV/AIDS in Iran from 1990 to 2015 at national and sub-national levels. Using a comprehensive data set, death registration incompleteness and misclassification were addressed by demographical and statistical methods. Trends of mortality due to HIV/AIDS at national and sub-national levels were estimated by applying a set of models. A total of 474 men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 175–1332) and 256 women (95% UI: 36–1871) died due to HIV/AIDS in 2015 in Iran. Peaked in 1995, HIV/AIDS-related mortality has steadily declined among both genders. Mortality rates were remarkably higher among men than women during the period studied. At the sub-national level, the highest and the lowest annual percent change were found at 10.97 and −1.36% for women, and 4.04 and −3.47% for men, respectively. The findings of our study (731 deaths) were remarkably lower than the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (4000) but higher than Global Burden of Disease (339) estimates in 2015. The overall decrease in mortality due to HIV/AIDS may be attributed to the increasing burden of noncommunicable diseases; however, the role of the national and international organizations to fight HIV/AIDS should not be overlooked. To decrease HIV/AIDS mortality and to achieve international goals, evidence-based action is required. To fast-track targets, the priority must be to prevent infection, promote early diagnosis, provide access to treatment, and to ensure treatment adherence among patients. Keywords HIV, AIDS, mortality, estimation, modeling, Ira