Assessment of Policy Instruments Toward a Sustainable Traffic System -A backcasting approach for Stockhom 2030

Finding strategies for preventing the process of global warming is growing urgent. Our intention is to highlight the future requirements and expectations on transport related sustainability measures (e.g. mobility management services, road tolls, CO2-taxes and renewable fuel systems) assisting the reaching of a long-term sustainability target of greenhouse gas emissions at the year 2030. We will employ the transport demand model SAMPERS and the traffic assignment model EMME/2 in order to investigate the effect from specific changes to the traffic network of Stockholm 2030, e.g. the environmental and socioeconomic impact from reduced number of commute trips, reduced car ownership, and new price structures and restrictions on private vehicle travel. In connection to this, we also quantify negative side effects (so-called rebound effects) coupled to efficiencies in the traffic network. We use an appraisal framework, influenced by backcasting, in order to assess the impact from the specific policies in relation to the United Nation’s (IPCC) requirements for a sustainable level of CO2-emissions. The findings from this study point at the inevitable need for at least a 50% renewable fuel mix in the traffic system if reaching the target 2030. Single-handedly, travel demand measures are insufficient to accomplish the CO2-emission target for 2030. Nevertheless, reducing traffic volumes by just a few percent might contribute to savings in emission costs, accident costs and aggregate travel time costs in the traffic system. Such measures are needed in order to mitigate the transition from fossil- to renewable fuels.

Finite Element Simulation Combination to Predict the Distortion of Thin Walled Milled Aluminum Workpieces as a Result of Machining Induced Residual Stresses

Machining induced residual stresses (MIRS) are a main driver for distortion of monolithic thin walled aluminum workpieces. A typical machining process for manufacturing such geometries for the aerospace industry is milling. In order to avoid high costs due to remanufacturing or part rejection, a simulation combination, consisting of two different finite element method (FEM) models, is developed to predict the part distortion due to MIRS. First, a 3D FEM cutting simulation is developed to predict the residual stresses due to machining. This simulation avoids cost intensive residual stress measurements. The milling process of the aluminum alloy AA7050-T7451 with a regular end mill is simulated. The simulation output, MIRS, forces and temperatures, is validated by face milling experiments on aluminum. The model takes mechanical dynamic effects, thermomechanical coupling, material properties and a damage law into account. Second, a subsequent finite element simulation, characterized by a static, linear elastic model, where the simulated MIRS from the cutting model are used as an input and the distortion of the workpiece is calculated, is presented. The predicted distortion is compared to an additional experiment, where a 1 mm thick wafer was removed at the milled surface of the aluminum workpiece. Furthermore, a thin walled component that represents a down scaled version of an aerospace component is manufactured and its distortion is analyzed. The results show that MIRS could be forecasted with moderate accuracy, which leads to the conclusion that the FEM cutting model needs to be improved in order to use the MIRS for a correct prediction of the distortion with the help of the linear elastic FEM model. The linear elastic model on the other hand is able to predict the part distortion with higher accuracy when using measured data instead of MIRS from the cutting simulation

Consumer-Resource Body-Size Relationships in Natural Food Webs

It has been suggested that differences in body size between consumer and resource species may have important implications for interaction strengths, population dynamics, and eventually food web structure, function, and evolution. Still, the general distribution of consumer–resource body-size ratios in real ecosystems, and whether they vary systematically among habitats or broad taxonomic groups, is poorly understood. Using a unique global database on consumer and resource body sizes, we show that the mean body-size ratios of aquatic herbivorous and detritivorous consumers are several orders of magnitude larger than those of carnivorous predators. Carnivorous predator–prey body-size ratios vary across different habitats and predator and prey types (invertebrates, ectotherm, and endotherm vertebrates). Predator–prey body-size ratios are on average significantly higher (1) in freshwater habitats than in marine or terrestrial habitats, (2) for vertebrate than for invertebrate predators, and (3) for invertebrate than for ectotherm vertebrate prey. If recent studies that relate body-size ratios to interaction strengths are general, our results suggest that mean consumer–resource interaction strengths may vary systematically across different habitat categories and consumer types

Edge influence on vegetation at natural and anthropogenic edges of boreal forests in Canada and Fennoscandia

Although anthropogenic edges are an important consequence of timber harvesting, edges due to natural disturbances or landscape heterogeneity are also common. Forest edges have been well studied in temperate and tropical forests, but less so in less productive, disturbance-adapted boreal forests. We synthesized data on forest vegetation at edges of boreal forests and compared edge influence among edge types (fire, cut, lake/wetland; old vs. young), forest types (broadleaf vs. coniferous) and geographic regions. Our objectives were to quantify vegetation responses at edges of all types and to compare the strength and extent of edge influence among different types of edges and forests. Research was conducted using the same general sampling design in Alberta, Ontario and Quebec in Canada, and in Sweden and Finland. We conducted a meta-analysis for a variety of response variables including forest structure, deadwood abundance, regeneration, understorey abundance and diversity, and non-vascular plant cover. We also determined the magnitude and distance of edge influence (DEI) using randomization tests. Some edge responses (lower tree basal area, tree canopy and bryophyte cover; more logs; higher regeneration) were significant overall across studies. Edge influence on ground vegetation in boreal forests was generally weak, not very extensive (DEI usually < 20 m) and decreased with time. We found more extensive edge influence at natural edges, at younger edges and in broadleaf forests. The comparison among regions revealed weaker edge influence in Fennoscandian forests. Synthesis. Edges created by forest harvesting do not appear to have as strong, extensive or persistent influence on vegetation in boreal as in tropical or temperate forested ecosystems. We attribute this apparent resistance to shorter canopy heights, inherent heterogeneity in boreal forests and their adaptation to frequent natural disturbance. Nevertheless, notable differences between forest structure responses to natural (fire) and anthropogenic (cut) edges raise concerns about biodiversity implications of extensive creation of anthropogenic edges. By highlighting universal responses to edge influence in boreal forests that are significant irrespective of edge or forest type, and those which vary by edge type, we provide a context for the conservation of boreal forests. Edges created by forest harvesting do not appear to have as strong, extensive or persistent influence on vegetation in boreal as in tropical or temperate forested ecosystems. We attribute this apparent resistance to shorter canopy heights, inherent heterogeneity in boreal forests and their adaptation to frequent natural disturbance. Nevertheless, notable differences between forest structure responses to natural (fire) and anthropogenic (cut) edges raise concerns about biodiversity implications of extensive creation of anthropogenic edges. By highlighting universal responses to edge influence in boreal forests that are significant irrespective of edge or forest type, and those which vary by edge type, we provide a context for the conservation of boreal forests

Less than 10 percent of star formation in z=0.6 massive galaxies is triggered by major interactions

Both observations and simulations show that major tidal interactions or mergers between gas-rich galaxies can lead to intense bursts of starformation. Yet, the average enhancement in star formation rate (SFR) in major mergers and the contribution of such events to the cosmic SFR are not well estimated. Here we use photometric redshifts, stellar masses and UV SFRs from COMBO-17, 24 micron SFRs from Spitzer and morphologies from two deep HST cosmological survey fields (ECDFS/GEMS and A901/STAGES) to study the enhancement in SFR as a function of projected galaxy separation. We apply two-point projected correlation function techniques, which we augment with morphologically-selected very close pairs (separation <2 arcsec) and merger remnants from the HST imaging. Our analysis confirms that the most intensely star-forming systems are indeed interacting or merging. Yet, for massive (M* > 10^10 Msun) star-forming galaxies at 0.4<z<0.8, we find that the SFRs of galaxies undergoing a major interaction (mass ratios <1:4 and separations < 40 kpc) are only 1.80 +/- 0.30 times higher than the SFRs of non-interacting galaxies when averaged over all interactions and all stages of the interaction, in good agreement with other observational works. We demonstrate that these results imply that <10% of star formation at 0.4 < z < 0.8 is triggered directly by major mergers and interactions; these events are not important factors in the build-up of stellar mass since z=1.Comment: Submitted to ApJ. 41 pages, 11 figure