Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR

Molecular phylogenetics and temporal diversification in the genus Aeromonas based on the sequences of five housekeeping genes

Several approaches have been developed to estimate both the relative and absolute rates of speciation and extinction within clades based on molecular phylogenetic reconstructions of evolutionary relationships, according to an underlying model of diversification. However, the macroevolutionary models established for eukaryotes have scarcely been used with prokaryotes. We have investigated the rate and pattern of cladogenesis in the genus Aeromonas (γ-Proteobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteria) using the sequences of five housekeeping genes and an uncorrelated relaxed-clock approach. To our knowledge, until now this analysis has never been applied to all the species described in a bacterial genus and thus opens up the possibility of establishing models of speciation from sequence data commonly used in phylogenetic studies of prokaryotes. Our results suggest that the genus Aeromonas began to diverge between 248 and 266 million years ago, exhibiting a constant divergence rate through the Phanerozoic, which could be described as a pure birth process

Fairy Tales: Attraction and Stereotypes in Same-Gender Relationships

We examine the process of romantic attraction in same-gender relationships using open and closed-ended questionnaire data from a sample of 120 men and women in Northern California. Agreeableness (e.g., kind, supportive) and Extraversion (e.g., fun, sense of humor) are the two most prominent bases of attraction, followed by Physical Attractiveness (e.g., appearance, sexy). The least important attractors represent traits associated with material success (e.g., financially secure, nice house). We also find evidence of seemingly contradictory attraction processes documented previously in heterosexual romantic relationships, in which individuals become disillusioned with the qualities in a partner that were initially appealing. Our findings challenge common stereotypes of same-gender relationships. The results document broad similarities between same-gender and cross-gender couples in attraction

Fine-Scale Temporal Dynamics of a Fragmented Lotic Microbial Ecosystem

Microbial ecosystems are often assumed to be relatively stable over short periods of time, but this assumption is seldom tested. An urban stream influenced by both flow and varying levels of anthropogenic influences is expected to have high temporal variability in microbial composition, and short-term ecological instability. Thus, we analyzed the bacterioplankton composition of a weir-fragmented urban stream using Automated rRNA Intergenic Spacer Analysis (ARISA). A total of 46 sequential samples were collected in July 2009 for 7 days, every 7 hours, from both the up-stream side of the weir (stream water) and the downstream side of the weir (estuarine) water. Bray-Curtis similarity based analysis showed a clear division between upstream and downstream communities. A sudden pH drop induced change in both communities, but composition stability partially recovered within less than a day. Thus, our results show that microbial ecosystems can change rapidly, but re-establish a new equilibrium relatively quickly

Use of linear mixed models for genetic evaluation of gestation length and birth weight allowing for heavy-tailed residual effects

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The distribution of residual effects in linear mixed models in animal breeding applications is typically assumed normal, which makes inferences vulnerable to outlier observations. In order to mute the impact of outliers, one option is to fit models with residuals having a heavy-tailed distribution. Here, a Student's-<it>t </it>model was considered for the distribution of the residuals with the degrees of freedom treated as unknown. Bayesian inference was used to investigate a bivariate Student's-<it>t </it>(BS<it>t</it>) model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in a simulation study and analysing field data for gestation length and birth weight permitted to study the practical implications of fitting heavy-tailed distributions for residuals in linear mixed models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In the simulation study, bivariate residuals were generated using Student's-<it>t </it>distribution with 4 or 12 degrees of freedom, or a normal distribution. Sire models with bivariate Student's-<it>t </it>or normal residuals were fitted to each simulated dataset using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. For the field data, consisting of gestation length and birth weight records on 7,883 Italian Piemontese cattle, a sire-maternal grandsire model including fixed effects of sex-age of dam and uncorrelated random herd-year-season effects were fitted using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Residuals were defined to follow bivariate normal or Student's-<it>t </it>distributions with unknown degrees of freedom.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Posterior mean estimates of degrees of freedom parameters seemed to be accurate and unbiased in the simulation study. Estimates of sire and herd variances were similar, if not identical, across fitted models. In the field data, there was strong support based on predictive log-likelihood values for the Student's-<it>t </it>error model. Most of the posterior density for degrees of freedom was below 4. Posterior means of direct and maternal heritabilities for birth weight were smaller in the Student's-<it>t </it>model than those in the normal model. Re-rankings of sires were observed between heavy-tailed and normal models.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Reliable estimates of degrees of freedom were obtained in all simulated heavy-tailed and normal datasets. The predictive log-likelihood was able to distinguish the correct model among the models fitted to heavy-tailed datasets. There was no disadvantage of fitting a heavy-tailed model when the true model was normal. Predictive log-likelihood values indicated that heavy-tailed models with low degrees of freedom values fitted gestation length and birth weight data better than a model with normally distributed residuals.</p> <p>Heavy-tailed and normal models resulted in different estimates of direct and maternal heritabilities, and different sire rankings. Heavy-tailed models may be more appropriate for reliable estimation of genetic parameters from field data.</p

Natural disasters in the history of the eastern Turk empire

This article analyzes the effect of climate extremes on the historical processes that took place (AD 536, 581, 601, 626 and 679) in the Eastern Turk Empire (AD 534–745) in Inner Asia. Climate extremes are sharp, strong and sometimes protracted periods of cooling and drought caused by volcanic eruptions that in this case resulted in a negative effect on the economy of a nomadic society and were often accompanied by famine and illness. In fact, many of these natural catastrophes coincided with the Black Death pandemics among the Eastern Turks and the Chinese living in the north of China. The Turk Empire can be split into several chronological periods during which significant events that led to changes in the course of history of the nomadic state took place: AD 534–545—the rise of the Turk Empire; AD 581–583—the division of the Turk Empire into theWestern and the Eastern Empires; AD 601–603—the rise of Qimin Qaghan; AD 627–630—the Eastern Turks are conquered by China; AD 679–687—the second rise of the Eastern Turk Empire. The research shows that there is clearly-discernable interplay between important historical events and climate extremes in the history of the Turk Empire. This interplay has led us to the conclusion that the climatic factor did have an impact on the historical processes that took place in the eastern part of Inner Asia, especially on the territories with a nomadic economy. © The Author(s) 2019

Prior mucosal exposure to heterologous cells alters the pathogenesis of cell-associated mucosal feline immunodeficiency virus challenge

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several lines of research suggest that exposure to cellular material can alter the susceptibility to infection by HIV-1. Because sexual contact often includes exposure to cellular material, we hypothesized that repeated mucosal exposure to heterologous cells would induce an immune response that would alter the susceptibility to mucosal infection. Using the feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) model of HIV-1 mucosal transmission, the cervicovaginal mucosa was exposed once weekly for 12 weeks to 5,000 heterologous cells or media (control) and then cats were vaginally challenged with cell-associated or cell-free FIV.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Exposure to heterologous cells decreased the percentage of lymphocytes in the mucosal and systemic lymph nodes (LN) expressing L-selectin as well as the percentage of CD4+ CD25+ T cells. These shifts were associated with enhanced ex-vivo proliferative responses to heterologous cells. Following mucosal challenge with cell-associated, but not cell-free, FIV, proviral burden was reduced by 64% in cats previously exposed to heterologous cells as compared to media exposed controls.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The pathogenesis and/or the threshold for mucosal infection by infected cells (but not cell-free virus) can be modulated by mucosal exposure to uninfected heterologous cells.</p

Bacterial Community Profiling of Milk Samples as a Means to Understand Culture-Negative Bovine Clinical Mastitis

Inflammation and infection of bovine mammary glands, commonly known as mastitis, imposes significant losses each year in the dairy industry worldwide. While several different bacterial species have been identified as causative agents of mastitis, many clinical mastitis cases remain culture negative, even after enrichment for bacterial growth. To understand the basis for this increasingly common phenomenon, the composition of bacterial communities from milk samples was analyzed using culture independent pyrosequencing of amplicons of 16S ribosomal RNA genes (16S rDNA). Comparisons were made of the microbial community composition of culture negative milk samples from mastitic quarters with that of non-mastitic quarters from the same animals. Genomic DNA from culture-negative clinical and healthy quarter sample pairs was isolated, and amplicon libraries were prepared using indexed primers specific to the V1–V2 region of bacterial 16S rRNA genes and sequenced using the Roche 454 GS FLX with titanium chemistry. Evaluation of the taxonomic composition of these samples revealed significant differences in the microbiota in milk from mastitic and healthy quarters. Statistical analysis identified seven bacterial genera that may be mainly responsible for the observed microbial community differences between mastitic and healthy quarters. Collectively, these results provide evidence that cases of culture negative mastitis can be associated with bacterial species that may be present below culture detection thresholds used here. The application of culture-independent bacterial community profiling represents a powerful approach to understand long-standing questions in animal health and disease

The vaginal microbiota associates with the regression of untreated cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 lesions

Emerging evidence suggests associations between the vaginal microbiota (VMB) composition, human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN); however, causal inference remains uncertain. Here, we use bacterial DNA sequencing from serially collected vaginal samples from a cohort of 87 adolescent and young women aged 16–26 years with histologically confirmed, untreated CIN2 lesions to determine whether VMB composition affects rates of regression over 24 months. We show that women with a Lactobacillus-dominant microbiome at baseline are more likely to have regressive disease at 12 months. Lactobacillus spp. depletion and presence of specific anaerobic taxa including Megasphaera, Prevotella timonensis and Gardnerella vaginalis are associated with CIN2 persistence and slower regression. These findings suggest that VMB composition may be a future useful biomarker in predicting disease outcome and tailoring surveillance, whilst it may offer rational targets for the development of new prevention and treatment strategies

Regular use of analgesics is a risk factor for renal cell carcinoma

Phenacetin-based analgesics have been linked to the development of renal pelvis cancer and renal cell carcinoma (RCC). The relationship between non-phenacetin types of analgesics and kidney cancer is less clear, although laboratory evidence suggests that these drugs possess carcinogenic potential. A population-based case–control study involving 1204 non-Asian RCC patients aged 25–74 and an equal number of sex-, age- and race-matched neighbourhood controls was conducted in Los Angeles, California, to investigate the relationship between sustained use of analgesics and risk of RCC according to major formulation categories. Detailed information on medical and medication histories, and other lifestyle factors was collected through in-person interviews. Regular use of analgesics was a significant risk factor for RCC in both men and women (odds ratio (OR) = 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.4–1.9 for both sexes combined). Risks were elevated across all four major classes of analgesics (aspirin, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents other than aspirin, acetaminophen and phenacetin). Within each class of analgesics, there was statistically significant increasing risk with increasing level of exposure. Although there was some minor variability by major class of formulation, in general individuals in the highest exposure categories exhibited approximately 2.5-fold increase in risk relative to non- or irregular users of analgesics. Subjects who took one regular-strength (i.e. 325 mg) aspirin a day or less for cardiovascular disease prevention were not at an increased risk of RCC (OR = 0.9, 95% CI = 0.6–1.4). © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig