Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement lockdown exit strategies that allow restrictions to be relaxed while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, will allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. The roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policy-makers, and is made up of three parts: i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in Low-to-Middle-Income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health

How does neopatrimonialism affect the African state? The case of tax collection in Zambia

Following the neopatrimonialism paradigm, it can be hypothesised that in African states informal politics of the rulers infringe on the collection of taxes and in turn reduce state revenue. This article tests this proposition for the case of Zambia. Neopatrimonial continuity in the country is evidenced by three factors : the concentration of political power, the award of personal favours, and the misuse of state resources. Despite this continuity, the revenue performance increased considerably with the creation of the semi-autonomous Zambia Revenue Authority. Donor pressure has been the most important intervening variable accounting for this improvement. Yet, strengthening the collection of central state revenue has been consistent with a neopatrimonial rationale, and may even have fed neopatrimonialism overall, by providing increased resources for particularistic expenditure

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

Changes in the V3 region of gp120 contribute to unusually broad coreceptor usage of an HIV-1 isolate from a CCR5 Delta32 heterozygote

AbstractHeterozygosity for the CCR5 Δ32 allele is associated with delayed progression to AIDS in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. Here we describe an unusual HIV-1 isolate from the blood of an asymptomatic individual who was heterozygous for the CCR5 Δ32 allele and had reduced levels of CCR5 expression. The primary virus used CCR5, CXCR4, and an unusually broad range of alternative coreceptors to enter transfected cells. However, only CXCR4 and CCR5 were used to enter primary T cells and monocyte-derived macrophages, respectively. Full-length Env clones had an unusually long V1/V2 region and rare amino acid variants in the V3 and C4 regions. Mutagenesis studies and structural models suggested that Y308, D321, and to a lesser extent K442 and E444, contribute to the broad coreceptor usage of these Envs, whereas I317 is likely to be a compensatory change. Furthermore, database analysis suggests that covariation can occur at positions 308/317 and 308/321 in vivo. Y308 and D321 reduced dependence on the extracellular loop 2 (ECL2) region of CCR5, while these residues along with Y330, K442, and E444 enhanced dependence on the CCR5 N-terminus compared to clade B consensus residues at these positions. These results suggest that expanded coreceptor usage of HIV-1 can occur in some individuals without rapid progression to AIDS as a consequence of changes in the V3 region that reduce dependence on the ECL2 region of CCR5 by enhancing interactions with conserved structural elements in G-protein-coupled receptors

TCTEX1D2 mutations underlie Jeune asphyxiating thoracic dystrophy with impaired retrograde intraflagellar transport

Tiina Paunio on työryhmän UK10K jäsen.The analysis of individuals with ciliary chondrodysplasias can shed light on sensitive mechanisms controlling ciliogenesis and cell signalling that are essential to embryonic development and survival. Here we identify TCTEX1D2 mutations causing Jeune asphyxiating thoracic dystrophy with partially penetrant inheritance. Loss of TCTEX1D2 impairs retrograde intraflagellar transport (IFT) in humans and the protist Chlamydomonas, accompanied by destabilization of the retrograde IFT dynein motor. We thus define TCTEX1D2 as an integral component of the evolutionarily conserved retrograde IFT machinery. In complex with several IFT dynein light chains, it is required for correct vertebrate skeletal formation but may be functionally redundant under certain conditions.Peer reviewe

Non-standard errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants