Welfare Effects of Uzbekistanís Foreign Exchange Regime

In addition to transferring about 16 percent of GDP from exporters to importers, Uzbekistanís quasi-fiscal multiple exchange rate regime generates identifiable welfare losses of 2-8 percent of GDP on import markets and up to 15 percent on export markets. These excess burdens have increased substantially with the growing difference among exchange rates. The welfare analysis allows some conclusions regarding the optimal reform strategy: (i) welfare losses will decline overproportionally as exchange rates unify, (ii) exchange rate unification should be supplemented by changing the explicit fiscal system; (iii) at a minimum, Uzbekistan would benefit from moving to an explicit fiscal regime. Copyright 2001, International Monetary Fund

Value-added taxation in the EC after 1992: Some applied general equilibrium calculations

This paper examines the quantitative effects of the transitional system of value-added taxation for intra-EC trade after 1992, as recently adopted by the ECOFIN-Council. First, the administration of the current destination principle and the interim solution are described and a mathematical formalization is provided. A short representation of the empirical general equilibrium model featuring seven EC regions and 14 production sectors follows. Finally, the effects of a switch to the transitional system are examined theoretically and by using policy simulations. When decomposing welfare effects, international tax revenue shifts prove to dominate, while substitution effects have relatively little influence on economic welfare. A generous arrangement with regard to long distance shopping, opening tax arbitrage possibilities to final consumers, favours low tax countries at the cost of their EC partners.Dieser Beitrag untersucht die quantitativen Efgekte der jüngst vom ECOFIN-Rat beschlossenen Übergangsregelung für die umsatzsteuerliche Behandlung des Handels in der EG nach 1992. Zunächst werden die Funktionsweise des bisherigen Bestimmungslandprinzips und der neuen Regelung beschrieben und mathematisch formalisiert. Es folgt eine kurze Darstellung des sieben EG-Regionen und 14 Produktionssektoren pro Land umfassenden empirischen allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells. Im letzten Teil wird zunächst theoretisch und dann anhand von Simulationsrechnungen auf die Wirkungen eines Wechsels zum Übergangssystems eingegangen. Bei einer Zerlegung der Wohlfahrtseffekte zeigt sich, dass internationale Steueraufkommensverschiebungen das Ergebnis quantitativ dominieren, während Substitionseffekte kaum Einfluss auf die ökonomische Wohlfahrt haben. Bei einer großzügigen Versandhandelsregelung, die den Endkonsumenten Möglichkeiten der Steuerarbitrage eröffnet, gewinnen Niedrigsteuerlander auf Kosten ihrer EG-Partner

Frequency, course and correlates of alcohol use from adolescence to young adulthood in a Swiss community survey

BACKGROUND: Few studies have analyzed the frequency of alcohol use across time from adolescence to young adulthood and its outcome in young adulthood. A Swiss longitudinal multilevel assessment project using various measures of psychopathology and psychosocial variables allowed for the study of the frequency and correlates of alcohol use so that this developmental trajectory may be better understood. METHOD: Alcohol use was studied by a questionnaire in a cohort of N = 593 subjects who had been assessed at three times between adolescence and young adulthood within the Zurich Psychology and Psychopathology Study (ZAPPS). Other assessment included questionnaire data measuring emotional and behavioural problems, life events, coping style, self-related cognitions, perceived parenting style and school environment, and size and efficiency of the social network. RESULTS: The increase of alcohol use from early adolescence to young adulthood showed only a few sex-specific differences in terms of the amount of alcohol consumption and the motives to drink. In late adolescence and young adulthood, males had a higher amount of alcohol consumption and were more frequently looking for drunkenness and feeling high. Males also experienced more negative consequences of alcohol use. A subgroup of heavy or problem drinkers showed a large range of emotional and behavioural problems and further indicators of impaired psychosocial functioning both in late adolescence and young adulthood. CONCLUSION: This Swiss community survey documents that alcohol use is problematic in a sizeable proportion of youth and goes hand in hand with a large number of psychosocial problems

Characterization of Chromosomal Instability in Murine Colitis-Associated Colorectal Cancer

Patients suffering from ulcerative colitis (UC) bear an increased risk for colorectal cancer. Due to the sparsity of colitis-associated cancer (CAC) and the long duration between UC initiation and overt carcinoma, elucidating mechanisms of inflammation-associated carcinogenesis in the gut is particularly challenging. Adequate murine models are thus highly desirable. For human CACs a high frequency of chromosomal instability (CIN) reflected by aneuploidy could be shown, exceeding that of sporadic carcinomas. The aim of this study was to analyze mouse models of CAC with regard to CIN. Additionally, protein expression of p53, beta-catenin and Ki67 was measured to further characterize murine tumor development in comparison to UC-associated carcinogenesis in men.The AOM/DSS model (n = 23) and IL-10(-/-) mice (n = 8) were applied to monitor malignancy development via endoscopy and to analyze premalignant and malignant stages of CACs. CIN was assessed using DNA-image cytometry. Protein expression of p53, beta-catenin and Ki67 was evaluated by immunohistochemistry. The degree of inflammation was analyzed by histology and paralleled to local interferon-γ release.CIN was detected in 81.25% of all murine CACs induced by AOM/DSS, while all carcinomas that arose in IL-10(-/-) mice were chromosomally stable. Beta-catenin expression was strongly membranous in IL-10(-/-) mice, while 87.50% of AOM/DSS-induced tumors showed cytoplasmatic and/or nuclear translocation of beta-catenin. p53 expression was high in both models and Ki67 staining revealed higher proliferation of IL-10(-/-)-induced CACs.AOM/DSS-colitis, but not IL-10(-/-) mice, could provide a powerful murine model to mechanistically investigate CIN in colitis-associated carcinogenesis

Stromal Interferon-γ Signaling and Cross-Presentation Are Required to Eliminate Antigen-Loss Variants of B Cell Lymphomas in Mice

To study mechanisms of T cell-mediated rejection of B cell lymphomas, we developed a murine lymphoma model wherein three potential rejection antigens, human c-MYC, chicken ovalbumin (OVA), and GFP are expressed. After transfer into wild-type mice 60–70% of systemically growing lymphomas expressing all three antigens were rejected; lymphomas expressing only human c-MYC protein were not rejected. OVA expressing lymphomas were infiltrated by T cells, showed MHC class I and II upregulation, and lost antigen expression, indicating immune escape. In contrast to wild-type recipients, 80–100% of STAT1-, IFN-γ-, or IFN-γ receptor-deficient recipients died of lymphoma, indicating that host IFN-γ signaling is critical for rejection. Lymphomas arising in IFN-γ- and IFN-γ-receptor-deficient mice had invariably lost antigen expression, suggesting that poor overall survival of these recipients was due to inefficient elimination of antigen-negative lymphoma variants. Antigen-dependent eradication of lymphoma cells in wild-type animals was dependent on cross-presentation of antigen by cells of the tumor stroma. These findings provide first evidence for an important role of the tumor stroma in T cell-mediated control of hematologic neoplasias and highlight the importance of incorporating stroma-targeting strategies into future immunotherapeutic approaches

Psychosocial adaptation of adolescent migrants in a Swiss community survey

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare psychosocial adaptation in adolescent (first generation) migrants, double-citizens (mainly second generation with one migrant parent), and native Swiss, and to compare migrants from various European regions. METHOD: Data from a community survey were based on 1,239 participants (mean age 13.8, SD = 1.6 years) with 996 natives, 55 double-citizens, and 188 migrants. The adolescents completed the youth self-report measuring emotional and behavioural problems, and various questionnaires addressing life events, personality variables, perceived parental behaviour (PPB), family functioning, school environment, and social network. RESULTS: Adolescent migrants had significantly higher scores for internalizing and externalizing problems. There was a pattern of various unfavourable psychosocial features including life events, coping, self-related cognitions, and PPB that was more common among adolescent migrants than natives. Double-citizens were similar to natives in all domains. Young adolescents from South and South-East Europe differed from natives in terms of more unfavourable psychosocial features. Migrant status was best predicted by adverse psychosocial features rather than emotional and behavioural problems. CONCLUSION: There is some indication that certain migrant adolescents are at risk of psychosocial mal-adaptation. Obviously, ethnic origin is an important moderator

A likelihood ratio approach for utilizing case-control data in the clinical classification of rare sequence variants:Application to BRCA1 and BRCA2

A large number of variants identified through clinical genetic testing in disease susceptibility genes are of uncertain significance (VUS). Following the recommendations of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) and Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP), the frequency in case-control datasets (PS4 criterion) can inform their interpretation. We present a novel case-control likelihood ratio-based method that incorporates gene-specific age-related penetrance. We demonstrate the utility of this method in the analysis of simulated and real datasets. In the analysis of simulated data, the likelihood ratio method was more powerful compared to other methods. Likelihood ratios were calculated for a case-control dataset of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and compared with logistic regression results. A larger number of variants reached evidence in favor of pathogenicity, and a substantial number of variants had evidence against pathogenicity findings that would not have been reached using other case-control analysis methods. Our novel method provides greater power to classify rare variants compared with classical case-control methods. As an initiative from the ENIGMA Analytical Working Group, we provide user-friendly scripts and preformatted Excel calculators for implementation of the method for rare variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, and other high-risk genes with known penetrance.</p

Hepatitis D double reflex testing of all hepatitis B carriers in low-HBV- and high-HBV/HDV-prevalence countries

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection occurs as a coinfection with hepatitis B and increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, and mortality compared to hepatitis B virus (HBV) monoinfection. Reliable estimates of the prevalence of HDV infection and disease burden are essential to formulate strategies to find coinfected individuals more effectively and efficiently. The global prevalence of HBV infections was estimated to be 262,240,000 in 2021. Only 1,994,000 of the HBV infections were newly diagnosed in 2021, with more than half of the new diagnoses made in China. Our initial estimates indicated a much lower prevalence of HDV antibody (anti-HDV) and HDV RNA positivity than previously reported in published studies. Accurate estimates of HDV prevalence are needed. The most effective method to generate estimates of the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity and to find undiagnosed individuals at the national level is to implement double reflex testing. This requires anti-HDV testing of all hepatitis B surface antigen-positive individuals and HDV RNA testing of all anti-HDV-positive individuals. This strategy is manageable for healthcare systems since the number of newly diagnosed HBV cases is low. At the global level, a comprehensive HDV screening strategy would require only 1,994,000 HDV antibody tests and less than 89,000 HDV PCR tests. Double reflex testing is the preferred strategy in countries with a low prevalence of HBV and those with a high prevalence of both HBV and HDV. For example, in the European Union and North America only 35,000 and 22,000 cases, respectively, will require anti-HDV testing annually

Copy number variants as modifiers of breast cancer risk for BRCA1/BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers

The risk of germline copy number variants (CNVs) in BRCA1 and BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers in breast cancer is assessed, with CNVs overlapping SULT1A1 decreasing breast cancer risk in BRCA1 carriers.The contribution of germline copy number variants (CNVs) to risk of developing cancer in individuals with pathogenic BRCA1 or BRCA2 variants remains relatively unknown. We conducted the largest genome-wide analysis of CNVs in 15,342 BRCA1 and 10,740 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. We used these results to prioritise a candidate breast cancer risk-modifier gene for laboratory analysis and biological validation. Notably, the HR for deletions in BRCA1 suggested an elevated breast cancer risk estimate (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.21), 95% confidence interval (95% CI = 1.09-1.35) compared with non-CNV pathogenic variants. In contrast, deletions overlapping SULT1A1 suggested a decreased breast cancer risk (HR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.59-0.91) in BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers. Functional analyses of SULT1A1 showed that reduced mRNA expression in pathogenic BRCA1 variant cells was associated with reduced cellular proliferation and reduced DNA damage after treatment with DNA damaging agents. These data provide evidence that deleterious variants in BRCA1 plus SULT1A1 deletions contribute to variable breast cancer risk in BRCA1 carriers.Peer reviewe