Machine Learning for Financial Prediction Under Regime Change Using Technical Analysis: A Systematic Review

Recent crises, recessions and bubbles have stressed the non-stationary nature and the presence of drastic structural changes in the financial domain. The most recent literature suggests the use of conventional machine learning and statistical approaches in this context. Unfortunately, several of these techniques are unable or slow to adapt to changes in the price-generation process. This study aims to survey the relevant literature on Machine Learning for financial prediction under regime change employing a systematic approach. It reviews key papers with a special emphasis on technical analysis. The study discusses the growing number of contributions that are bridging the gap between two separate communities, one focused on data stream learning and the other on economic research. However, it also makes apparent that we are still in an early stage. The range of machine learning algorithms that have been tested in this domain is very wide, but the results of the study do not suggest that currently there is a specific technique that is clearly dominant

Castigando al prójimo: el pensamiento de Gargarella aplicado a la justicia transicional

The objective of this paper is to present the main ideas of Roberto Gargarella’s thought on criminal law from the perspective of deliberative democracy and to analyze how his work dialogues with other doctrines of criminal law such as the ones defended by Luigi Ferrajoli’s and Eugenio Raúl Zaffaroni. Furthermore, the essay analyses Gargarella’s position on the role of international courts in transitional justice processes and some practical consequences of his thought. To fulfill this objective, the paper uses as references his works on the case Gelman v. Uruguay (2011) and his texts on the 2016 Peace Agreement between Colombia and the farc-ep. Finally, the paper shows how the principle of subsidiarity based on the democratic principle is a relevant contribution of Gargarella’s theory and lays the groundwork for the construction of a doctrine of a national margin of appreciation in Latin America.El artículo expone las líneas maestras del pensamiento de Roberto Gargarella sobre la refundación del derecho penal a partir de la democracia deliberativa y analiza cómo este se inserta y dialoga con otras doctrinas del derecho penal como el garantismo de Luigi Ferrajoli y el minimalismo penal de Eugenio Raúl Zaffaroni. En sintonía con lo anterior, se analiza la posición de Gargarella sobre el rol de los tribunales internacionales ante la justicia transicional y algunas consecuencias prácticas de su pensamiento. Para cumplir este objetivo se toman como referencias sus trabajos sobre el reconocido caso Gelman vs. Uruguay (2011) y aquellos en los que ha analizado el Acuerdo de Paz de 2016 entre Colombia y las farc-ep. Finalmente, el artículo muestra cómo el principio de subsidiariedad basado en el principio democrático es un aporte relevante de la teoría de Gargarella y sienta las bases para la construcción de una doctrina de margen de apreciación nacional en América Latina

Incremental Market Behavior Classification in Presence of Recurring Concepts

In recent years, the problem of concept drift has gained importance in the financial domain. The succession of manias, panics and crashes have stressed the non-stationary nature and the likelihood of drastic structural or concept changes in the markets. Traditional systems are unable or slow to adapt to these changes. Ensemble-based systems are widely known for their good results predicting both cyclic and non-stationary data such as stock prices. In this work, we propose RCARF (Recurring Concepts Adaptive Random Forests), an ensemble tree-based online classifier that handles recurring concepts explicitly. The algorithm extends the capabilities of a version of Random Forest for evolving data streams, adding on top a mechanism to store and handle a shared collection of inactive trees, called concept history, which holds memories of the way market operators reacted in similar circumstances. This works in conjunction with a decision strategy that reacts to drift by replacing active trees with the best available alternative: either a previously stored tree from the concept history or a newly trained background tree. Both mechanisms are designed to provide fast reaction times and are thus applicable to high-frequency data. The experimental validation of the algorithm is based on the prediction of price movement directions one second ahead in the SPDR (Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts) S&P 500 Exchange-Traded Fund. RCARF is benchmarked against other popular methods from the incremental online machine learning literature and is able to achieve competitive results.This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under grant number ENE2014-56126-C2-2-R

A survey on machine learning for recurring concept drifting data streams

The problem of concept drift has gained a lot of attention in recent years. This aspect is key in many domains exhibiting non-stationary as well as cyclic patterns and structural breaks affecting their generative processes. In this survey, we review the relevant literature to deal with regime changes in the behaviour of continuous data streams. The study starts with a general introduction to the field of data stream learning, describing recent works on passive or active mechanisms to adapt or detect concept drifts, frequent challenges in this area, and related performance metrics. Then, different supervised and non-supervised approaches such as online ensembles, meta-learning and model-based clustering that can be used to deal with seasonalities in a data stream are covered. The aim is to point out new research trends and give future research directions on the usage of machine learning techniques for data streams which can help in the event of shifts and recurrences in continuous learning scenarios in near real-time

La necesidad del diálogo entre la justicia constitucional y el arbitraje internacional de inversiones

The article highlights the tension between international investment arbitration, international human rights law, and constitutional law. After analyzing the main objections to investment treaty arbitration such as the lack of transparency, legal certainty, legitimacy and accountability of the arbitrators, the paper examines the novel judgment c-252/2019 of the Constitutional Court of Colombia which is an example of the virtuous role to be exercised by constitutional justice regarding investment arbitration. When constitutional justice incorporates in its reasoning and argumentation the diversity of interests and rights both foreign investor and the society it can contribute to alleviate the structural deficits of investment arbitration while contributing on strengthen it. From the perspective of the host State, it can prevent international lawsuits or to argue an exemption of international liability. The central idea is to defend the need to develop a serious and reflexive dialogue between these authorities of public law adjudication.Este artículo pone de manifiesto la tensión existente entre el arbitraje internacional de inversión, el derecho internacional de los derechos humanos y el derecho constitucional. Luego de exponer las principales objeciones frente al arbitraje internacional de inversión como la falta de transparencia, seguridad jurídica, legitimidad y responsabilización de los árbitros, se analiza la novedosa Sentencia c-252/2019 de la Corte Constitucional de Colombia y se analiza el rol virtuoso que debe ejercer la justicia constitucional respecto del arbitraje de inversión. Un razonamiento y una argumentación que tome en consideración los intereses y derechos del inversionista extranjero pueden contribuir a paliar los déficits estructurales del arbitraje de inversión y fortalecerlo. Desde la perspectiva del Estado receptor de la inversión, puede prevenir demandas internacionales o coadyuvar a eximirle de responsabilidad. Se plantea, entonces, la necesidad de un diálogo reflexivo y amplio entre estas dos formas de adjudicación de derecho público. &nbsp

¿Control Administrativo de la Jurisdicción? Régimen disciplinario del juez burócrata español y ecuatoriano. Milton Velásquez Díaz (2018)

¿Control Administrativo de la Jurisdicción? Régimen disciplinario del juez burócrata español y ecuatorianoMilton Velásquez Díaz (2018), Universidad de Especialidades Espíritu Santo: Ecuador.¿Control Administrativo de la Jurisdicción? Régimen disciplinario del juez burócrata español y ecuatorianoMilton Velásquez Díaz (2018), Universidad de Especialidades Espíritu Santo: Ecuador

El derecho a la reparación y el procedimiento en las garantías jurisdiccionales de derechos fundamentales

El presente artículo describe las características principales del derecho a la reparación frente a violaciones de derechos fundamentales; así mismo, expone el procedimiento aplicable en el trámi-te de las garantías jurisdiccionales de conocimiento para hacer efectiva la reparación. En esa línea, el texto analiza las constantes referencias a la reparación integral en la constitución ecuatoriana, así como la tipología de reparaciones a nivel doctrinario y en el derecho internacional como son la restitución integral, indemnización, rehabilitación, medidas de satisfacción y garantías de no repe-tición. Adicionalmente, el texto presenta una crítica a la jurisprudencia de la Corte Constitucional del Ecuador en la medida que: 1. Dividir la competencia entre jueces para juzgar una garantía juris-diccional y fijar la cuantía de la indemnización económica es inconstitucional y arbitraria; 2. Que la Corte Constitucional, de forma discrecional, pueda fijar, en los casos de garantías jurisdiccionales en que así lo decida, directamente las indemnizaciones económicas en demérito de la seguridad jurídica. Finalmente, se proponen tres alternativas para solucionar los problemas identificados. Palabras clave:Autonomía procesal, indemnización económica, jurisprudencia constitucional, procedimiento, reparación integral. Abstract This paper describes the main features of the right to obtain reparations against violations of fundamental rights and sets out the procedure applicable to the processes of jurisdictional guarantees. Additionally, the text analyses the constant references to integral reparation in Ecuadorian constitution as well as the typology of reparations at a doctrinal level and in international law such as restitution, compensation, rehabilitation, satisfaction measures and guarantees of non-repe-tition. In addition, the paper criticizes the jurisprudence of Ecuador’s Constitutional Court to the extent that: 1. Dividing jurisdiction between judges to rule on a judicial guarantee and to determine the amount of economic compensation is unconstitutional and arbitrary; 2. That the Constitutional Court may directly determine, in cases of judicial guarantees, on a discretionary basis, the economic compensation which is prejudicial to legal certainty. Finally, the paper proposes three alternatives to solve the identified problems. Key words:Constitutional jurisprudence, economic compensation, integral reparation, procedural autonomy, procedural law

Constitucionalismo abusivo y amnistía en Venezuela

Este artículo constituye una crítica a la declaratoria de inconstitucionalidad total por parte de la Sala Constitucional del Tribunal Supremo de Justicia sobre la Ley de Amnistía y Reconciliación Nacional aprobada por la Asamblea Nacional de marzo del 2016. En primer lugar, se demostrará que la ley declarada inconstitucional cumplía con los estándares fijados por la jurisprudencia de la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos relativos a los derechos a la verdad, justicia y reparación de las víctimas. Igualmente se demostrará que la ley no perdona graves violaciones de derechos humanos sino meros delitos políticos. Bajo estos presupuestos demostraremos que existe un constitucionalismo abusivo en Venezuela y las eventuales acciones y sanciones de la OEA y la comunidad internacional, pese a la denuncia de la Convención Interamericana de Derechos Humanos por parte de Venezuela en 201