Characterization of mixing errors in a coupled physical biogeochemical model of the North Atlantic: implications for nonlinear estimation using Gaussian anamorphosis

In biogeochemical models coupled to ocean circulation models, vertical mixing is an important physical process which governs the nutrient supply and the plankton residence in the euphotic layer. However, vertical mixing is often poorly represented in numerical simulations because of approximate parameterizations of sub-grid scale turbulence, wind forcing errors and other mis-represented processes such as restratification by mesoscale eddies. Getting a sufficient knowledge of the nature and structure of these errors is necessary to implement appropriate data assimilation methods and to evaluate if they can be controlled by a given observation system. <br><br> In this paper, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to study mixing errors induced by approximate wind forcings in a three-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the North Atlantic with a 1/4° horizontal resolution. An ensemble forecast involving 200 members is performed during the 1998 spring bloom, by prescribing perturbations of the wind forcing to generate mixing errors. The biogeochemical response is shown to be rather complex because of nonlinearities and threshold effects in the coupled model. The response of the surface phytoplankton depends on the region of interest and is particularly sensitive to the local stratification. In addition, the statistical relationships computed between the various physical and biogeochemical variables reflect the signature of the non-Gaussian behaviour of the system. It is shown that significant information on the ecosystem can be retrieved from observations of chlorophyll concentration or sea surface temperature if a simple nonlinear change of variables (anamorphosis) is performed by mapping separately and locally the ensemble percentiles of the distributions of each state variable on the Gaussian percentiles. The results of idealized observational updates (performed with perfect observations and neglecting horizontal correlations) indicate that the implementation of this anamorphosis method into sequential assimilation schemes can substantially improve the accuracy of the estimation with respect to classical computations based on the Gaussian assumption

Science directions in a post-COP21-world of transient climate change: enabling regional to local predictions in support of reliable climate information

During recent decades, through theoretical considerations and analyses of observations andmodel simulations, the scientific community has fundamentally advanced our understanding of thecoupled climate system, thereby establishing that humans affect the Earth’s climate. Resulting from thisremarkable accomplishment, the COP21 agreement marks a historic turning point for climate research bycalling for actionable regional climate change information on time scales from seasonal to centuries for thebenefit of humanity, as well as living and nonliving elements of the Earth environment. Out of the underlyingUnited National Framework Convention on climate Change process, improving seamless regional climateforecast capabilities emerges as a key challenge for the international research community. Addressing itrequires a multiscale approach to climate predictions. Here we offer a vision that emphasizes enhancedscientific understanding of regional to local climate processes as the foundation for progress. The scientificchallenge is extreme due to the rich complexity of interactions and feedbacks between regional andglobal processes, each of which affects the global climate trajectory. To gain the necessary scientific insightand to turn it into actionable climate information require technical development, international coordination,and a close interaction between the science and stakeholder communities

Profiling the Quality of Educational Programs for Adolescents With Disabilities

This is the publisher's version, also found at: http://www.sped.orgIn this column, Bridging Research and Practice, three of the federally funded special education research institutes report to you, the practitioner, on their progress in areas that will be particularly helpful to you in working with your students. The U.S. Office of Special Education Programs (OSEP) has funded these three research institutes to study specific curricular and instructional interventions that will accelerate the learning of students with disabilities in curricular areas: CASL (Center on Accelerating Student Learning) focuses on accelerating reading, math, and writing development in Grades K-3. The Directors of CASI. are Lynn and Doug Fuchs of Vanderbilt University. CASL research sites are also located at Columbia University (Joanna Williams) and the University of Maryland (Steve Graham and Karen Harris). REACH (Research Institute lo Accelerate Content Learning Through High Support for Students With Disabilities in Grades 4- 8) is examining interventions that reflect high expectations, content, and support for students. The Director of REACH is Catherine Cobb Morocco at Education Development Center in Newton, MA. Research partners include the University of Michigan (Annemarie Palincsar and Shirley Magnusson), the University of Delaware (Ralph Eerretti. Charles MacArthur, and Cynthia Okolo), and the University of Puget Sound (John Woodward). The Institute for Academic Access (lAA) is conducting research to develop instructional methods and materials to provide students with authentic access to the high school general curriculum. The Institute Directors are Don Deshler and Jean Schumaker of the University of Kansas, Lawrence, Research partners include the University of Oregon and school districts in Kansas, California, Washington, and Oregon. This issue features the CASL (Center on Accelerating Student Learning]

Report of the 1988 2-D Intercomparison Workshop, chapter 3

Several factors contribute to the errors encountered. With the exception of the line-by-line model, all of the models employ simplifying assumptions that place fundamental limits on their accuracy and range of validity. For example, all 2-D modeling groups use the diffusivity factor approximation. This approximation produces little error in tropospheric H2O and CO2 cooling rates, but can produce significant errors in CO2 and O3 cooling rates at the stratopause. All models suffer from fundamental uncertainties in shapes and strengths of spectral lines. Thermal flux algorithms being used in 2-D tracer tranport models produce cooling rates that differ by as much as 40 percent for the same input model atmosphere. Disagreements of this magnitude are important since the thermal cooling rates must be subtracted from the almost-equal solar heating rates to derive the net radiative heating rates and the 2-D model diabatic circulation. For much of the annual cycle, the net radiative heating rates are comparable in magnitude to the cooling rate differences described. Many of the models underestimate the cooling rates in the middle and lower stratosphere. The consequences of these errors for the net heating rates and the diabatic circulation will depend on their meridional structure, which was not tested here. Other models underestimate the cooling near 1 mbar. Suchs errors pose potential problems for future interactive ozone assessment studies, since they could produce artificially-high temperatures and increased O3 destruction at these levels. These concerns suggest that a great deal of work is needed to improve the performance of thermal cooling rate algorithms used in the 2-D tracer transport models

Power-Based Droop Control in DC Microgrids Enabling Seamless Disconnection From Upstream Grids

This paper proposes a local power-based droop controller for distributed energy resource converters in dc microgrids that are connected to upstream grids by grid-interface converters. During normal operation, the grid-interface converter imposes the microgrid bus voltage, and the proposed controller allows power flow regulation at distributed energy resource converters\u2019 output. On the other hand, during abnormal operation of the grid-interface converter (e.g., due to faults in the upstream grid), the proposed controller allows bus voltage regulation by droop control. Notably, the controller can autonomously convert from power flow control to droop control, without any need of bus voltage variation detection schemes or communication with other microgrid components, which enables seamless transitions between these two modes of operation. Considering distributed energy resource converters employing the power-based droop control, the operation modes of a single converter and of the whole microgrid are defined and investigated herein. The controller design is also introduced. Furthermore, the power sharing performance of this control approach is analyzed and compared with that of classical droop control. The experimental results from a laboratory-scale dc microgrid prototype are reported to show the final performances of the proposed power-based droop control