The Cryosphere / Circumpolar patterns of potential mean annual ground temperature based on surface state obtained from microwave satellite data

Gap filling is required for temporally and spatially consistent records of land surface temperature from satellite data due to clouds or snow cover. Land surface state, frozen versus unfrozen conditions, can be, however, captured globally with satellite data obtained by microwave sensors. The number of frozen days per year has been previously proposed to be used for permafrost extent determination. This suggests an underlying relationship between number of frozen days and mean annual ground temperature (MAGT). We tested this hypothesis for the Northern Hemisphere north of 50N using coarse-spatial-resolution microwave satellite data (Metop Advanced SCATterometer ASCAT and Special Sensor Microwave Imager SSM/I; 12.5 and 25km nominal resolution; 20072012), which provide the necessary temporal sampling. The MAGT from GTN-P (Global TerrestrialNetworkfor Permafrost) borehole records at the coldest sensor depth was tested for validity in order to build a comprehensive in situ data set for calibration and validation and was eventually applied. Results are discussed with respect to snow water equivalent, soil properties, land cover and permafrost type. The obtained temperature maps were classified for permafrost extent and compared to alternative approaches.An R2 of 0.99 was found for correlation between and MAGT at zero annual amplitude provided in GTN-P metadata and MAGT at the coldest sensor depth. The latter could be obtained with an RMSE of 2.2C from ASCAT and 2.5C from SSM/I surface state records using a linear model. The average deviation within the validation period is less than 1C at locations without glaciers and coastlines within the resolution cell in the case of ASCAT. The exclusion of snow melt days (available for ASCAT) led to better results. This suggests that soil warming under wet snow cover needs to be accounted for in this context. Specifically Scandinavia and western Russia are affected. In addition, MAGT at the coldest sensor depth was overestimated in areas with a certain amount of organic material and in areas of cold permafrost. The derived permafrost extent differed between the used data sets and methods. Deviations are high in central Siberia, for example. We show that microwave-satellite-derived surface state records can provide an estimation of not only permafrost extent but also MAGT without the need for gap filling. This applies specifically to ASCAT. The deviations among the tested data sets, their spatial patterns as well as in relation to environmental conditions, revealed areas which need special attention for modelling of MAGT.(VLID)278661

Rapid Saline Permafrost Thaw Below a Shallow Thermokarst Lake in Arctic Alaska

Permafrost warming and degradation is well documented across the Arctic. However, observation- and model-based studies typically consider thaw to occur at 0°C, neglecting the widespread occurrence of saline permafrost in coastal plain regions. In this study, we document rapid saline permafrost thaw below a shallow arctic lake. Over the 15-year period, the lakebed subsided by 0.6 m as ice-rich, saline permafrost thawed. Repeat transient electromagnetic measurements show that near-surface bulk sediment electrical conductivity increased by 198% between 2016 and 2022. Analysis of wintertime Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite imagery indicates a transition from a bedfast to a floating ice lake with brackish water due to saline permafrost thaw. The regime shift likely contributed to the 65% increase in thermokarst lake lateral expansion rates. Our results indicate that thawing saline permafrost may be contributing to an increase in landscape change rates in the Arctic faster than anticipated

Towards long-term records of rain-on-snow events across the Arctic from satellite data

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events occur across many regions of the terrestrial Arctic in mid-winter. Snowpack properties are changing, and in extreme cases ice layers form which affect wildlife, vegetation and soils beyond the duration of the event. Specifically, satellite microwave observations have been shown to provide insight into known events. Only Ku-band radar (scatterometer) has been applied so far across the entire Arctic. Data availability at this frequency is limited, however. The utility of other frequencies from passive and active systems needs to be explored to develop a concept for long-term monitoring. The latter are of specific interest as they can be potentially provided at higher spatial resolution. Radar records have been shown to capture the associated snow structure change based on time-series analyses. This approach is also applicable when data gaps exist and has capabilities to evaluate the impact severity of events. Active as well as passive microwave sensors can also detect wet snow at the timing of an ROS event if an acquisition is available. The wet snow retrieval methodology is, however, rather mature compared to the identification of snow structure change since ambiguous scattering behaviour needs consideration. C-band radar is of special interest due to good data availability including a range of nominal spatial resolutions (10 m–12.5 km). Scatterometer and SAR (synthetic aperture radar) data have therefore been investigated. The temperature dependence of C-band backscatter at VV (V – vertical) polarization observable down to −40 ◦C is identified as a major issue for ROS retrieval but can be addressed by a combination with a passive microwave wet snow indicator (demonstrated for Metop ASCAT – Advanced Scatterometer – and SMOS – Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity). Results were compared to in situ observations (snowpit records, caribou migration data) and Ku-band products. Ice crusts were found in the snowpack after detected events (overall accuracy 82 %). The more crusts (events) there are, the higher the winter season backscatter increase at C-band will be. ROS events captured on the Yamal and Seward peninsulas have had severe impacts on reindeer and caribou, respectively, due to ice crust formation. SAR specifically from Sentinel-1 is promising regarding ice layer identification at better spatial details for all available polarizations. The fusion of multiple types of microwave satellite observations is suggested for the creation of a climate data record, but the consideration of performance differences due to spatial and temporal cover, as well as microwave frequency, is crucial. Retrieval is most robust in the tundra biome, where results are comparable between sensors. Records can be used to identify extremes and to apply the results for impact studies at regional scale

Remote sensing-based statistical approach for defining drained lake basins in a continuous Permafrost region, North Slope of Alaska

Lake formation and drainage are pervasive phenomena in permafrost regions. Drained lake basins (DLBs) are often the most common landforms in lowland permafrost regions in the Arctic (50% to 75% of the landscape). However, detailed assessments of DLB distribution and abundance are limited. In this study, we present a novel and scalable remote sensing-based approach to identifying DLBs in lowland permafrost regions, using the North Slope of Alaska as a case study. We validated this first North Slope-wide DLB data product against several previously published sub-regional scale datasets and manually classified points. The study area covered \u3e71,000 km2, including a \u3e39,000 km2 area not previously covered in existing DLB datasets. Our approach used Landsat-8 multispectral imagery and ArcticDEM data to derive a pixel-by-pixel statistical assessment of likelihood of DLB occurrence in sub-regions with different permafrost and periglacial landscape conditions, as well as to quantify aerial coverage of DLBs on the North Slope of Alaska. The results were consistent with previously published regional DLB datasets (up to 87% agreement) and showed high agreement with manually classified random points (64.4–95.5% for DLB and 83.2– 95.4% for non-DLB areas). Validation of the remote sensing-based statistical approach on the North Slope of Alaska indicated that it may be possible to extend this methodology to conduct a comprehensive assessment of DLBs in pan-Arctic lowland permafrost regions. Better resolution of the spatial distribution of DLBs in lowland permafrost regions is important for quantitative studies on landscape diversity, wildlife habitat, permafrost, hydrology, geotechnical conditions, and high-lat-itude carbon cycling

Engagement of early career researchers in collaborative assessments of IPCC reports: achievements and insights

The participation of a diverse –in terms of geography, discipline and gender– group of Early Career Researchers (ECRs) in the peer review process can help alleviate the workload of senior researchers and counteract the perceptual biases that the latter tend to show. Moreover, ECRs can benefit from developing skills that are often not included in educational programs. From 2018 to 2021, the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists, in collaboration with other associations, organized six group reviews of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports by a total of more than 600 ECRs from over 70 different countries. This study aims to evaluate this group review in terms of its contribution to the production of scientific knowledge, and as a career development opportunity for ECRs. The data analyzed consists of application forms, review comments, and feedback surveys that were collected during each review process. The results of this study show that, overall, the group reviews were a success in terms of the experience of ECRs and their contribution to the peer review of the IPCC reports. Most survey respondents considered the general organization of the group reviews satisfactory and expressed interest in participating in future group reviews. However, most participants did not engage in discussions with their peers, which constitutes a missed opportunity to engage in active learning and the shared production of knowledge. ECRs made a significant contribution to the review of the IPCC reports by producing an average of 2422±532 comments per group review, 36% of which were substantive. PhD students were shown to be as proficient reviewers as postdoctoral researchers and faculty reviewers. More importantly, the diversity of reviewers in terms of geography and discipline, together with the fact that they are ECRs, can help produce more balanced scientific reports since they bring news perspectives, thus counteracting the biases that senior researchers have. This group reviews could be improved by providing more comprehensive training and facilitating communication among reviewers so that they can engage in meaningful exchanges. We conclude that the IPCC should formalize the inclusion of ECRs in future reviews of the IPCC reports