Cohort profile: Canadian study of prediction of death, dialysis and interim cardiovascular events (CanPREDDICT)

Background: The Canadian Study of Prediction of Death, Dialysis and Interim Cardiovascular Events (CanPREDDICT) is a large, prospective, pan-Canadian, cohort study designed to improve our understanding of determinants of renal and cardiovascular (CV) disease progression in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The primary objective is to clarify the associations between traditional and newer biomarkers in the prediction of specific renal and CV events, and of death in patients with CKD managed by nephrologists. This information could then be used to better understand biological variation in outcomes, to develop clinical prediction models and to inform enrolment into interventional studies which may lead to novel treatments. Methods/Designs: Commenced in 2008, 2546 patients have been enrolled with eGFR between 15 and 45 ml/min 1.73m2 from a representative sample in 25 rural, urban, academic and non academic centres across Canada. Patients are to be followed for an initial 3 years at 6 monthly intervals, and subsequently annually. Traditional biomarkers include eGFR, urine albumin creatinine ratio (uACR), hemoglobin (Hgb), phosphate and albumin. Newer biomarkers of interest were selected on the basis of biological relevance to important processes, commercial availability and assay reproducibility. They include asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), troponin I, cystatin C, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL6) and transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGFβ1). Blood and urine samples are collected at baseline, and every 6 monthly, and stored at −80°C. Outcomes of interest include renal replacement therapy, CV events and death, the latter two of which are adjudicated by an independent panel. Discussion: The baseline distribution of newer biomarkers does not appear to track to markers of kidney function and therefore may offer some discriminatory value in predicting future outcomes. The granularity of the data presented at baseline may foster additional questions. The value of the cohort as a unique resource to understand outcomes of patients under the care of nephrologists in a single payer healthcare system cannot be overstated. Systematic collection of demographic, laboratory and event data should lead to new insights. The mean age of the cohort was 68 years, 90% were Caucasian, 62% were male, and 48% had diabetes. Forty percent of the cohort had eGFR between 30–45 mL/min/1.73m2, 22% had eGFR values below 20 mL/min/1.73m2; 61% had uACR < 30. Serum albumin, hemoglobin, calcium and 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels were progressively lower in the lower eGFR strata, while parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels increased. Cystatin C, ADMA, NT-proBNP, hsCRP, troponin I and IL-6 were significantly higher in the lower GFR strata, whereas 25(OH)D and TGFβ1 values were lower at lower GFR. These distributions of each of the newer biomarkers by eGFR and uACR categories were variable

The utility of convection-permitting ensembles for the prediction of stationary convective bands

This study examines convection-permitting numerical simulations of four cases of terrain-locked quasi-stationary convective bands over the UK. For each case, a 2.2-km grid-length 12-member ensemble and 1.5-km grid-length deterministic forecast are analyzed, each with two different initialization times. Object-based verification is applied to determine whether the simulations capture the structure, location, timing, intensity and duration of the observed precipitation. These verification diagnostics reveal that the forecast skill varies greatly between the four cases. Although the deterministic and ensemble simulations captured some aspects of the precipitation correctly in each case, they never simultaneously captured all of them satisfactorily. In general, the models predicted banded precipitation accumulations at approximately the correct time and location, but the precipitating structures were more cellular and less persistent than the coherent quasi-stationary bands that were observed. Ensemble simulations from the two different initialization times were not significantly different, which suggests a potential benefit of time-lagging subsequent ensembles to increase ensemble size. The predictive skill of the upstream larger-scale flow conditions and the simulated precipitation on the convection-permitting grids were strongly correlated, which suggests that more accurate forecasts from the parent ensemble should improve the performance of the convection-permitting ensemble nested within it

Positivity of Spin Foam Amplitudes

The amplitude for a spin foam in the Barrett-Crane model of Riemannian quantum gravity is given as a product over its vertices, edges and faces, with one factor of the Riemannian 10j symbols appearing for each vertex, and simpler factors for the edges and faces. We prove that these amplitudes are always nonnegative for closed spin foams. As a corollary, all open spin foams going between a fixed pair of spin networks have real amplitudes of the same sign. This means one can use the Metropolis algorithm to compute expectation values of observables in the Riemannian Barrett-Crane model, as in statistical mechanics, even though this theory is based on a real-time (e^{iS}) rather than imaginary-time (e^{-S}) path integral. Our proof uses the fact that when the Riemannian 10j symbols are nonzero, their sign is positive or negative depending on whether the sum of the ten spins is an integer or half-integer. For the product of 10j symbols appearing in the amplitude for a closed spin foam, these signs cancel. We conclude with some numerical evidence suggesting that the Lorentzian 10j symbols are always nonnegative, which would imply similar results for the Lorentzian Barrett-Crane model.Comment: 15 pages LaTeX. v3: Final version, with updated conclusions and other minor changes. To appear in Classical and Quantum Gravity. v4: corrects # of samples in Lorentzian tabl

Spin Foam Models of Riemannian Quantum Gravity

Using numerical calculations, we compare three versions of the Barrett-Crane model of 4-dimensional Riemannian quantum gravity. In the version with face and edge amplitudes as described by De Pietri, Freidel, Krasnov, and Rovelli, we show the partition function diverges very rapidly for many triangulated 4-manifolds. In the version with modified face and edge amplitudes due to Perez and Rovelli, we show the partition function converges so rapidly that the sum is dominated by spin foams where all the spins labelling faces are zero except for small, widely separated islands of higher spin. We also describe a new version which appears to have a convergent partition function without drastic spin-zero dominance. Finally, after a general discussion of how to extract physics from spin foam models, we discuss the implications of convergence or divergence of the partition function for other aspects of a spin foam model.Comment: 23 pages LaTeX; this version to appear in Classical and Quantum Gravit

Use of bisulfite processing to generate high-β-O-4 content water-soluble lignosulfonates

This work was supported by EPSRC grants (EP/1518175), the Industrial Biotechnology Innovation Centre (IBioIC) (DMB Ph.D. studentship) and an EPSRC Doctoral Prize Fellowship (CSL).With lignin-first biorefineries likely to become a reality, controlled depolymerization of high-quality lignin streams to high value products has become a priority. Using bisulfite chemistry, access to a high-β-O-4 content water-soluble lignosulfonate has been achieved, allowing follow-on procedures in water to be conducted. We show that phenolic β-O-4 units preferential-ly react under acidic bisulfite conditions, whilst non-phenolic β-O-4 units react much more slowly. Exploiting this improved chemical understanding and inherent selectivity, a softwood lignosulfonate has been prepared in which phenolic β-O-4 α-sulfonation has occurred leaving significant native β-O-4 content. Use of an O-benzoylation protocol with lignin coupled with advanced 2D NMR methods has allowed detailed analysis of this and other commercial and industrial lignosulfonates. Conversion of the native β-O-4 to benzylic- oxidized β-O-4 units was followed by a selective reductive cleavage to give a premium aromatic monomer in pure form.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Interface-mediated ferroelectric patterning and Mn valency in nano-structured PbTiO ₃ /La _0.7 Sr _0.3 MnO ₃

International audienceWe employed a multitechnique approach using piezo-force response microscopy and photoemission microscopy to investigate a self-organizing polarization domain pattern in PbTiO3/La0.7Sr0.3MnO3 (PTO/LSMO) nanostructures. The polarization is correlated with the nanostructure morphology as well as with the thickness and Mn valence of the LSMO template layer. On the LSMO dots, the PTO is upwards polarized, whereas outside the nanodots, the polarization appears both strain and interface roughness dependent. The results suggest that the electronic structure and strain of the PTO/LSMO interface contribute to determining the internal bias of the ferroelectric layer

MF2293

Fadi Aramouni et al, Food safety, Kansas State University, October 1997

Mean curvature flow with triple junctions in higher space dimensions

We consider mean curvature flow of n-dimensional surface clusters. At (n-1)-dimensional triple junctions an angle condition is required which in the symmetric case reduces to the well-known 120 degree angle condition. Using a novel parametrization of evolving surface clusters and a new existence and regularity approach for parabolic equations on surface clusters we show local well-posedness by a contraction argument in parabolic Hoelder spaces.Comment: 31 pages, 2 figure

Scleromochlus and the early evolution of Pterosauromorpha

Pterosaurs, the first vertebrates to evolve powered flight, were key components of Mesozoic terrestrial ecosystems from their sudden appearance in the Late Triassic until their demise at the end of the Cretaceous1,2,3,4,5,6. However, the origin and early evolution of pterosaurs are poorly understood owing to a substantial stratigraphic and morphological gap between these reptiles and their closest relatives6, Lagerpetidae7. Scleromochlus taylori, a tiny reptile from the early Late Triassic of Scotland discovered over a century ago, was hypothesized to be a key taxon closely related to pterosaurs8, but its poor preservation has limited previous studies and resulted in controversy over its phylogenetic position, with some even doubting its identification as an archosaur9. Here we use microcomputed tomographic scans to provide the first accurate whole-skeletal reconstruction and a revised diagnosis of Scleromochlus, revealing new anatomical details that conclusively identify it as a close pterosaur relative1 within Pterosauromorpha (the lagerpetid + pterosaur clade). Scleromochlus is anatomically more similar to lagerpetids than to pterosaurs and retains numerous features that were probably present in very early diverging members of Avemetatarsalia (bird-line archosaurs). These results support the hypothesis that the first flying reptiles evolved from tiny, probably facultatively bipedal, cursorial ancestors1