Numeric score-based conditional and overall change-in-status indices for ordered categorical data

Planned interventions and/or natural conditions often effect change on an ordinal categorical outcome (e.g., symptom severity). In such scenarios it is sometimes desirable to assign a priori scores to observed changes in status, typically giving higher weight to changes of greater magnitude. We define change indices for such data based upon a multinomial model for each row of a c×c table, where the rows represent the baseline status categories. We distinguish an index designed to assess conditional changes within each baseline category from two others designed to capture overall change. One of these overall indices measures expected change across a target population. The other is scaled to capture the proportion of total possible change in the direction indicated by the data, so that it ranges from −1 (when all subjects finish in the least favorable category) to +1 (when all finish in the most favorable category). The conditional assessment of change can be informative regardless of how subjects are sampled into the baseline categories. In contrast, the overall indices become relevant when subjects are randomly sampled at baseline from the target population of interest, or when the investigator is able to make certain assumptions about the baseline status distribution in that population. We use a Dirichlet-multinomial model to obtain Bayesian credible intervals for the conditional change index that exhibit favorable small-sample frequentist properties. Simulation studies illustrate the methods, and we apply them to examples involving changes in ordinal responses for studies of sleep deprivation and activities of daily living

Amoxicillin-Clavulanate-Induced Liver Injury

Background and Aims Amoxicillin–clavulanate (AC) is the most frequent cause of idiosyncratic drug-induced injury (DILI) in the US DILI Network (DILIN) registry. Here, we examined a large cohort of AC-DILI cases and compared features of AC-DILI to those of other drugs. Methods Subjects with suspected DILI were enrolled prospectively, and cases were adjudicated as previously described. Clinical variables and outcomes of patients with AC-DILI were compared to the overall DILIN cohort and to DILI caused by other antimicrobials. Results One hundred and seventeen subjects with AC-DILI were identified from the cohort (n = 1038) representing 11 % of all cases and 24 % of those due to antimicrobial agents (n = 479). Those with AC-DILI were older (60 vs. 48 years, P < 0.001). AC-DILI was more frequent in men than women (62 vs. 39 %) compared to the overall cohort (40 vs. 60 %, P < 0.001). The mean time to symptom onset was 31 days. The Tb, ALT, and ALP were 7 mg/dL, 478, and 325 U/L at onset. Nearly all liver biopsies showed prominent cholestatic features. Resolution of AC-DILI, defined by return of Tb to <2.5 mg/dL, occurred on average 55 days after the peak value. Three female subjects required liver transplantation, and none died due to DILI. Conclusion AC-DILI causes a moderately severe, mixed hepatocellular–cholestatic injury, particularly in older men, unlike DILI in general, which predominates in women. Although often protracted, eventual apparent recovery is typical, particularly for men and usually in women, but three women required liver transplantation

Reliability of causality assessment for drug, herbal and dietary supplement hepatotoxicity in the Drug‐Induced Liver Injury Network (DILIN)

Background & AimsBecause of the lack of objective tests to diagnose drug‐induced liver injury (DILI), causality assessment is a matter of debate. Expert opinion is often used in research and industry, but its test–retest reliability is unknown. To determine the test–retest reliability of the expert opinion process used by the Drug‐Induced Liver Injury Network (DILIN).MethodsThree DILIN hepatologists adjudicate suspected hepatotoxicity cases to one of five categories representing levels of likelihood of DILI. Adjudication is based on retrospective assessment of gathered case data that include prospective follow‐up information. One hundred randomly selected DILIN cases were re‐assessed using the same processes for initial assessment but by three different reviewers in 92% of cases.ResultsThe median time between assessments was 938 days (range 140–2352). Thirty‐one cases involved >1 agent. Weighted kappa statistics for overall case and individual agent category agreement were 0.60 (95% CI: 0.50–0.71) and 0.60 (0.52–0.68) respectively. Overall case adjudications were within one category of each other 93% of the time, while 5% differed by two categories and 2% differed by three categories. Fourteen per cent crossed the 50% threshold of likelihood owing to competing diagnoses or atypical timing between drug exposure and injury.ConclusionsThe DILIN expert opinion causality assessment method has moderate interobserver reliability but very good agreement within one category. A small but important proportion of cases could not be reliably diagnosed as ≥50% likely to be DILI.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111130/1/liv12540.pd

Clomiphene, Metformin, or Both for Infertility in the Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

Background The polycystic ovary syndrome is a common cause of infertility. Clomiphene and insulin sensitizers are used alone and in combination to induce ovulation, but it is unknown whether one approach is superior. Methods We randomly assigned 626 infertile women with the polycystic ovary syndrome to receive clomiphene citrate plus placebo, extended-release metformin plus placebo, or a combination of metformin and clomiphene for up to 6 months. Medication was discontinued when pregnancy was confirmed, and subjects were followed until delivery. Results The live-birth rate was 22.5% (47 of 209 subjects) in the clomiphene group, 7.2% (15 of 208) in the metformin group, and 26.8% (56 of 209) in the combinationtherapy group (P\u3c0.001 for metformin vs. both clomiphene and combination therapy; P=0.31 for clomiphene vs. combination therapy). Among pregnancies, the rate of multiple pregnancy was 6.0% in the clomiphene group, 0% in the metformin group, and 3.1% in the combination-therapy group. The rates of first-trimester pregnancy loss did not differ significantly among the groups. However, the conception rate among subjects who ovulated was significantly lower in the metformin group (21.7%) than in either the clomiphene group (39.5%, P=0.002) or the combinationtherapy group (46.0%, P\u3c0.001). With the exception of pregnancy complications, adverse-event rates were similar in all groups, though gastrointestinal side effects were more frequent, and vasomotor and ovulatory symptoms less frequent, in the metformin group than in the clomiphene group. Conclusions Clomiphene is superior to metformin in achieving live birth in infertile women with the polycystic ovary syndrome, although multiple birth is a complication. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00068861.

Concentración, segregación y movilidad residencial de los extranjeros en Barcelona

El artículo analiza la dinámica residencial de la población extranjera en la ciudad de Barcelona, considerando tres aspectos que centran su distribución: la concentración en el territorio, la segregación residencial en relación con la población de la ciudad y la movilidad residencial en interrelación con su región metropolitana. Se realiza un análisis temporal que sigue la evolución de estos elementos a lo largo de la década, con el objetivo de aportar una visión de conjunto de los cambios observados. El análisis contempla la utilización de diferentes fuentes estadísticas y detalla el comportamiento de las nacionalidades con más efectivos en Barcelona. Los resultados indican un desplazamiento de las áreas de concentración desde el centro histórico hacia la periferia de la ciudad, un descenso de la segregación vinculado a una mayor dispersión territorial y una fuerte movilidad residencial dentro de la Región Metropolitana que afecta especialmente a los municipios situados en la periferia más próxima a la ciudad.L'article analitza la dinàmica residencial de la població estrangera a la ciutat de Barcelona, considerant tres dels aspectes que en centren la distribució: la concentració en el territori, la segregació residencial en relació amb la població de la ciutat i la mobilitat residencial en interrelació amb la seva regió metropolitana. S'hi realitza una anàlisi temporal que ressegueix l'evolució d'aquests elements al llarg de la darrera dècada, amb l'objectiu d'aportar una visió de conjunt dels canvis observats. L'estudi contempla la utilització de diferents fonts estadístiques i detalla el comportament de les nacionalitats amb més efectius a Barcelona. Els resultats indiquen un desplaçament de les àrees de concentració des del centre històric cap a la perifèria de la ciutat, un descens de la segregació lligat a una dispersió territorial més gran i una forta mobilitat residencial dins de la Regió Metropolitana que afecta especialment els municipis situats a la perifèria més pròxima a la ciutat.L'article analyse la dynamique résidentielle de la population étrangère dans la ville de Barcelone en se concentrant sur trois aspects de sa distribution : la concentration sur le territoire, la ségrégation et la mobilité résidentielle au sein de la région métropolitaine. L'évolution de ces trois facteurs a été suivie pendant une décennie dans le but d'obtenir une vision globale des changements observés. Diverses sources statistiques qui détaillent le comportement des populations les plus nombreuses habitant Barcelone ont été utilisées. Les résultats montrent un déplacement des zones de concentration des étrangers depuis le centre historique vers les périphéries, une diminution de la ségrégation due à la croissante dispersion territoriale, et finalement une forte mobilité résidentielle dans la Région Métropolitaine, particulièrement dans les communes les plus proches de Barcelone.Three aspects of foreigners' residential mobility in the city of Barcelona are studied in this paper: territorial concentration, segregation and residential change within the metropolitan region. To obtain a global view, these three elements are followed for a decade. Several data bases, specifying the behaviour of major nationalities, are used. Results firstly show that foreigners are gradually moving out of the historical centre and into the periphery. Secondly, that there is a strong intra-metropolitan mobility, particularly so in the municipalities nearest to the central city. Finally, as foreigners are more widely distributed throughout the territory, they are also becoming less segregated

Differences in NT-proBNP Response and Prognosis in Men and Women With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction.

Background NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) is a prognostic biomarker in heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction. However, it is unclear whether there is a sex difference in NT-proBNP response and whether the therapeutic goal of NT-proBNP ≤1000 pg/mL has equivalent prognostic value in men and women with HF with reduced ejection fraction. Methods and Results In a secondary analysis of the GUIDE-IT (Guiding Evidence Based Therapy Using Biomarker Intensified Treatment) trial we analyzed trends in NT-proBNP and goal attainment by sex. Differences in clinical characteristics, HF treatment, and time to all-cause death or HF hospitalization were compared. Landmark analysis at 3 months determined the prognostic value of early NT-proBNP goal achievement in men and women. Of the 286 (32%) women and 608 (68%) men in the GUIDE-IT trial, women were more likely to have a nonischemic cause and shorter duration of HF. Guideline-directed medical therapy was less intense over time in women. The absolute NT-proBNP values were consistently lower in women; however, the change in NT-proBNP and clinical outcomes were similar. After adjustment, women achieving the NT-proBNP goal had an 82% reduction in death or HF hospitalization compared with a 59% reduction in men. Conclusions Men and women with HF with reduced ejection fraction had a similar NT-proBNP response despite less intensive HF treatment among women. However, compared with men, the early NT-proBNP goal of ≤1000 pg/mL had greater prognostic value in women. Future efforts should be aimed at intensifying guideline-directed medical therapy in women, which may result in greater NT-proBNP reductions and improved outcomes in women with HF with reduced ejection fraction. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01685840

Association of Liver Injury From Specific Drugs, or Groups of Drugs, With Polymorphisms in HLA and Other Genes in a Genome-Wide Association Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify genetic risk factors for drug-induced liver injury (DILI) from licensed drugs without previously reported genetic risk factors. METHODS: We performed a GWAS of 862 persons with DILI and 10,588 population-matched controls. The first set of cases was recruited before May 2009 in Europe (n = 137) and the United States (n = 274). The second set of cases were identified from May 2009 through May 2013 from international collaborative studies performed in Europe, the United States, and South America. For the GWAS, we included only cases with patients of European ancestry associated with a particular drug (but not flucloxacillin or amoxicillin-clavulanate). We used DNA samples from all subjects to analyze HLA genes and single nucleotide polymorphisms. After the discovery analysis was concluded, we validated our findings using data from 283 European patients with diagnosis of DILI associated with various drugs. RESULTS: We associated DILI with rs114577328 (a proxy for A*33:01 a HLA class I allele; odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9-3.8; P = 2.4 × 10-8) and with rs72631567 on chromosome 2 (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.6-2.5; P = 9.7 × 10-9). The association with A*33:01 was mediated by large effects for terbinafine-, fenofibrate-, and ticlopidine-related DILI. The variant on chromosome 2 was associated with DILI from a variety of drugs. Further phenotypic analysis indicated that the association between DILI and A*33:01 was significant genome wide for cholestatic and mixed DILI, but not for hepatocellular DILI; the polymorphism on chromosome 2 was associated with cholestatic and mixed DILI as well as hepatocellular DILI. We identified an association between rs28521457 (within the lipopolysaccharide-responsive vesicle trafficking, beach and anchor containing gene) and only hepatocellular DILI (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.6-2.7; P = 4.8 × 10-9). We did not associate any specific drug classes with genetic polymorphisms, except for statin-associated DILI, which was associated with rs116561224 on chromosome 18 (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 3.0-9.5; P = 7.1 × 10-9). We validated the association between A*33:01 terbinafine- and sertraline-induced DILI. We could not validate the association between DILI and rs72631567, rs28521457, or rs116561224. CONCLUSIONS: In a GWAS of persons of European descent with DILI, we associated HLA-A*33:01 with DILI due to terbinafine and possibly fenofibrate and ticlopidine. We identified polymorphisms that appear to be associated with DILI from statins, as well as 2 non-drug-specific risk factors

Association of Liver Injury From Specific Drugs, or Groups of Drugs, With Polymorphisms in HLA and Other Genes in a Genome-Wide Association Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify genetic risk factors for druginduced liver injury (DILI) from licensed drugs without previously reported genetic risk factors. METHODS: We performed a GWAS of 862 persons with DILI and 10,588 population-matched controls. The first set of cases was recruited before May 2009 in Europe (n = 137) and the United States (n = 274). The second set of cases were identified from May 2009 through May 2013 from international collaborative studies performed in Europe, the United States, and South America. For the GWAS, we included only cases with patients of European ancestry associated with a particular drug (but not flucloxacillin or amoxicillin-clavulanate). We used DNA samples from all subjects to analyze HLA genes and single nucleotide polymorphisms. After the discovery analysis was concluded, we validated our findings using data from 283 European patients with diagnosis of DILI associated with various drugs. RESULTS: We associated DILI with rs114577328 (a proxy for A* 33: 01 a HLA class I allele; odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 - 3.8; P = 2.4 x 10(-8)) and with rs72631567 on chromosome 2 (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.6 - 2.5; P = 9.7 x 10(-9)). The association with A* 33: 01 was mediated by large effects for terbinafine-, fenofibrate-, and ticlopidine-related DILI. The variant on chromosome 2 was associated with DILI from a variety of drugs. Further phenotypic analysis indicated that the association between DILI and A* 33: 01 was significant genome wide for cholestatic and mixed DILI, but not for hepatocellular DILI; the polymorphism on chromosome 2 was associated with cholestatic and mixed DILI as well as hepatocellular DILI. We identified an association between rs28521457 (within the lipopolysaccharide-responsive vesicle trafficking, beach and anchor containing gene) and only hepatocellular DILI (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.6 - 2.7; P = 4.8 x 10(-9)). We did not associate any specific drug classes with genetic polymorphisms, except for statin-associated DILI, which was associated with rs116561224 on chromosome 18 (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 3.0 - 9.5; P = 7.1 x 10(-9)). We validated the association between A* 33: 01 terbinafine-and sertraline-induced DILI. We could not validate the association between DILI and rs72631567, rs28521457, or rs116561224. CONCLUSIONS: In a GWAS of persons of European descent with DILI, we associated HLA-A* 33: 01 with DILI due to terbinafine and possibly fenofibrate and ticlopidine. We identified polymorphisms that appear to be associated with DILI from statins, as well as 2 non-drug-specific risk factors.Peer reviewe

Features and Outcomes of 899 Patients With Drug-Induced Liver Injury: The DILIN Prospective Study

The drug-induced liver injury network (DILIN) is conducting a prospective study of patients with DILI in the United States. We present characteristics and subgroup analyses from the first 1257 patients enrolled in the study