BIOLOGICAL INVASION OF Corythucha ciliata IN GREEN URBAN SPACES IN PORTUGAL: A NICHE MODELING APPROACH USING MAXIMUM ENTROPY

Corythucha ciliata (Hemiptera: Tingidae) \ue9 um inseto nativo da Am\ue9rica do Norte que foi introduzido na Europa, pela It\ue1lia, em 1964. Desde ent\ue3o tem se expandido por toda a Europa, desconhecendo-se a data de chegada e a sua \ue1rea de distribui\ue7\ue3o em Portugal. Esta importante praga invasora alimenta-se na face inferior das folhas de pl\ue1tano, uma das mais importantes \ue1rvores ornamentais nos espa\ue7os verdes urbanos em Portugal, causando senesc\ueancia prematura e eventualmente morte, em casos de infesta\ue7\uf5es severas consecutivas. A modela\ue7\ue3o de nicho est\ue1 se tornando uma ferramenta cada vez mais importante na gest\ue3o de invas\uf5es biol\uf3gicas, tanto antes como depois da introdu\ue7\ue3o do organismo invasor. Neste estudo, o software MaxEnt (m\ue1xima entropia) foi usado na modela\ue7\ue3o da distribui\ue7\ue3o invasiva potencial de Corythucha ciliata em Portugal, a partir de um conjunto de vari\ue1veis ambientais e de dados de presen\ue7a do inseto, obtidos a partir da observa\ue7\ue3o de folhas de pl\ue1tanos amostrados por todo o pa\ueds. De acordo com o melhor modelo gerado pelo MaxEnt, as \ue1reas de maior adequabilidade potencial \ue0 invas\ue3o de Corythucha ciliata encontram-se no norte de Portugal apresentando o sul e as regi\uf5es de maior altitude do norte e centro adequabilidade reduzida ou nula. Observa\ue7\uf5es laboratoriais da biologia de Corythucha ciliata aliadas aos registos de aus\ueancia em v\ue1rias localidades do sul de Portugal e ocorr\ueancia predominante na metade norte de Espanha suportam o modelo desenvolvido. Por\ue9m, a valida\ue7\ue3o do modelo requer futuras prospec\ue7\uf5es nas \ue1reas de reduzida adequabilidade e onde a praga se encontrava virtualmente ausente no momento em que foi realizada a amostragem. Os modelos de adequabilidade podem ser usados como ferramenta auxiliar na tomada de decis\ue3o no que concerne \ue0 gest\ue3o dos espa\ue7os verdes.Corythucha ciliata (Hemiptera: Tingidae) is an insect native to North America which has been introduced into Europe, through Italy, in 1964. Since then it has expanded across Europe being its date of arrival and distributional range in Portugal unknown. This important invasive pest feeds on the underside of the leaves of sycamore trees, one of the most widespread ornamental tree in urban areas of Portugal, causing their premature senescence and eventually death, in case of consecutive severe infestations. Habitat modeling is becoming an increasingly important tool for managing biological invasions, either prior or after the introduction of the invasive organism. In this study the software MaxEnt (maximum entropy) was used to model the distribution of Corythucha ciliata in its Portuguese invasive range, from a set of environmental variables and georeferenced occurrence data obtained from observation of Platanus spp. leaves sampled all over the country. According to the best model developed, the areas of greater suitability to invasion of Corythucha ciliata are located in the northern portion of the country whereas the more southern and mountainous areas are of low or virtually null suitability. Laboratory observations of Corythucha ciliata biology allied to records of pest absence across several localities of southern Portugal and predominant occurrence in the northern half of Spain support the model developed. However, model validation requires future prospection in the areas of predicted reduced suitability and where the pest was virtually absent at the moment of sampling. Suitability models can be a useful tool for decision making in management of green spaces

FIRE BEHAVIOUR IN DIFFERENT PERIODS AND CONFIGURATIONS OF A LANDSCAPE IN NORTHEASTERN PORTUGAL

Neste trabalho aborda-se a import\ue2ncia do planejamento do uso e ocupa\ue7\ue3o do solo, e do manejo dos sistemas florestais na redu\ue7\ue3o do perigo de inc\ueandio, analisando-se o comportamento do fogo em rela\ue7\ue3o \ue0s altera\ue7\uf5es na paisagem da Deil\ue3o, nordeste de Portugal. Foram utilizadas cadeias de Markov e modelos de aut\uf4matos celulares como metodologia para projetar a paisagem no futuro. FlamMap foi utilizado para simular o comportamento do fogo. De acordo com as m\ue9tricas da paisagem obtidas no Fragstats, observouse que os cen\ue1rios e proje\ue7\uf5es em Deil\ue3o t\ueam uma tend\ueancia \ue0 simplifica\ue7\ue3o da paisagem, o que pode facilitar a ocorr\ueancia de inc\ueandios maiores e mais graves. A an\ue1lise dos resultados indicou uma tend\ueancia ao aumento do perigo de inc\ueandios na regi\ue3o, em grande parte, ocasionado pela expans\ue3o de planta\ue7\uf5es cont\uednuas de florestas. Para evitar tais impactos, o manejo florestal e ordenamento da paisagem devem ser modificados a fim de se reduzir o ac\ufamulo de materiais combust\uedveis.In this study, we discuss the importance of land use, land cover planning and forest stand management in fire hazard reduction, through the analysis of fire behavior in relation to landscape changes in Deil\ue3o, northeastern Portugal. Markov chains and cellular automata model were used to project future landscapes whose structures were quantified by landscape metrics. The FlamMap model was used to simulate fire behavior. According to landscape metrics from Fragstats, we observed that scenarios and projections in Deil\ue3o have a trend towards landscape simplification, which may facilitate the occurrence of larger, more severe fires. The analyses indicate an increased fire hazard trend in the region, largely caused by the continuity of forest cover. To avoid such impacts, forest management and landscape plannig should be modified in order to reduce the accumulation of combustible materials

Outcomes from elective colorectal cancer surgery during the SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic

Aim This study aimed to describe the change in surgical practice and the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on mortality after surgical resection of colorectal cancer during the initial phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Method This was an international cohort study of patients undergoing elective resection of colon or rectal cancer without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Centres entered data from their first recorded case of COVID-19 until 19 April 2020. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included anastomotic leak, postoperative SARS-CoV-2 and a comparison with prepandemic European Society of Coloproctology cohort data. Results From 2073 patients in 40 countries, 1.3% (27/2073) had a defunctioning stoma and 3.0% (63/2073) had an end stoma instead of an anastomosis only. Thirty-day mortality was 1.8% (38/2073), the incidence of postoperative SARS-CoV-2 was 3.8% (78/2073) and the anastomotic leak rate was 4.9% (86/1738). Mortality was lowest in patients without a leak or SARS-CoV-2 (14/1601, 0.9%) and highest in patients with both a leak and SARS-CoV-2 (5/13, 38.5%). Mortality was independently associated with anastomotic leak (adjusted odds ratio 6.01, 95% confidence interval 2.58–14.06), postoperative SARS-CoV-2 (16.90, 7.86–36.38), male sex (2.46, 1.01–5.93), age >70 years (2.87, 1.32–6.20) and advanced cancer stage (3.43, 1.16–10.21). Compared with prepandemic data, there were fewer anastomotic leaks (4.9% versus 7.7%) and an overall shorter length of stay (6 versus 7 days) but higher mortality (1.7% versus 1.1%). Conclusion Surgeons need to further mitigate against both SARS-CoV-2 and anastomotic leak when offering surgery during current and future COVID-19 waves based on patient, operative and organizational risks