Exact Likelihoods for N-mixture models with Time-to-Detection Data

This paper is concerned with the formulation of $N$-mixture models for estimating the abundance and probability of detection of a species from binary response, count and time-to-detection data. A modelling framework, which encompasses time-to-first-detection within the context of detection/non-detection and time-to-each-detection and time-to-first-detection within the context of count data, is introduced. Two observation processes which depend on whether or not double counting is assumed to occur are also considered. The main focus of the paper is on the derivation of explicit forms for the likelihoods associated with each of the proposed models. Closed-form expressions for the likelihoods associated with time-to-detection data are new and are developed from the theory of order statistics. A key finding of the study is that, based on the assumption of no double counting, the likelihoods associated with times-to-detection together with count data are the product of the likelihood for the counts alone and a term which depends on the detection probability parameter. This result demonstrates that, in this case, recording times-to-detection could well improve precision in estimation over recording counts alone. In contrast, for the double counting protocol with exponential arrival times, no information was found to be gained by recording times-to-detection in addition to the count data. An R package and an accompanying vignette are also introduced in order to complement the algebraic results and to demonstrate the use of the models in practice.Comment: 21 pages, 1 figur

Counting chirps : acoustic monitoring of cryptic frogs

Funding for the frog survey was received from the National Geographic Society/Waitt Grants Program (No. W184-11). The EPSRC and NERC helped to fund this research through a PhD grant (No. EP/1000917/1) to D.L.B. R.A. and G.J.M. acknowledge initiative funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa.1 .  Global amphibian declines have resulted in a vital need for monitoring programmes that follow population trends. Monitoring using advertisement calls is ideal as choruses are undisturbed during data collection. However, methods currently employed by managers frequently rely on trained observers, and/or do not provide density data on which to base trends. 2 .  This study explores the utility of monitoring using acoustic spatially explicit capture-recapture (aSECR) with time of arrival (ToA) and signal strength (SS) as a quantitative monitoring technique to measure call density of a threatened but visually cryptic anuran, the Cape peninsula moss frog Arthroleptella lightfooti. 3 .  The relationships between temporal and environmental variables (date, rainfall, temperature) and A. lightfooti call density at three study sites on the Cape peninsula, South Africa were examined. Acoustic data, collected from an array of six microphones over four months during the winter breeding season, provided a time series of call density estimates. 4 .  Model selection indicated that call density was primarily associated with seasonality fitted as a quadratic function. Call density peaked mid-breeding season. At the main study site, the lowest recorded mean call density (0·160 calls m-2 min-1) occurred in May and reached its peak mid-July (1·259 calls m-2 min-1). The sites differed in call density, but also the effective sampling area. 5 .  Synthesis and applications.The monitoring technique, acoustic spatially explicit capture–recapture (aSCR), quantitatively estimates call density without disturbing the calling animals or their environment, while time of arrival (ToA) and signal strength (SS) significantly add to the accuracy of call localisation, which in turn increases precision of call density estimates without the need for specialist field staff. This technique appears ideally suited to aid the monitoring of visually cryptic, acoustically active species.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A general framework for animal density estimation from acoustic detections across a fixed microphone array

Acoustic monitoring can be an efficient, cheap, non‐invasive alternative to physical trapping of individuals. Spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) methods have been proposed to estimate calling animal abundance and density from data collected by a fixed array of microphones. However, these methods make some assumptions that are unlikely to hold in many situations, and the consequences of violating these are yet to be investigated. We generalize existing acoustic SECR methodology, enabling these methods to be used in a much wider variety of situations. We incorporate time‐of‐arrival (TOA) data collected by the microphone array, increasing the precision of calling animal density estimates. We use our method to estimate calling male density of the Cape Peninsula Moss Frog Arthroleptella lightfooti. Our method gives rise to an estimator of calling animal density that has negligible bias, and 95% confidence intervals with appropriate coverage. We show that using TOA information can substantially improve estimate precision. Our analysis of the A. lightfooti data provides the first statistically rigorous estimate of calling male density for an anuran population using a microphone array. This method fills a methodological gap in the monitoring of frog populations and is applicable to acoustic monitoring of other species that call or vocalize

High-fidelity multimode fibre-based endoscopy for deep brain in vivo imaging

Progress in neuroscience relies on new techniques for investigating the complex dynamics of neuronal networks. An ongoing challenge is to achieve minimally invasive and high-resolution observations of neuronal activity in vivo inside deep brain areas. Recently introduced methods for holographic control of light propagation in complex media enable the use of a hair-thin multimode optical fibre as an ultranarrow imaging tool. Compared to endoscopes based on graded-index lenses or fibre bundles, this new approach offers a footprint reduction exceeding an order of magnitude, combined with a significant enhancement in resolution. We designed a compact and high-speed system for fluorescent imaging at the tip of a fibre, achieving a resolution of 1.18 ± 0.04 µm across a 50-µm field of view, yielding 7-kilopixel images at a rate of 3.5 frames/s. Furthermore, we demonstrate in vivo observations of cell bodies and processes of inhibitory neurons within deep layers of the visual cortex and hippocampus of anaesthetised mice. This study paves the way for modern microscopy to be applied deep inside tissues of living animal models while exerting a minimal impact on their structural and functional properties

Organics in comet 67P – a first comparative analysis of mass spectra from ROSINA–DFMS, COSAC and Ptolemy

The ESA Rosetta spacecraft followed comet 67P at a close distance for more than 2 yr. In addition, it deployed the lander Philae on to the surface of the comet. The (surface) composition of the comet is of great interest to understand the origin and evolution of comets. By combining measurements made on the comet itself and in the coma, we probe the nature of this surface material and compare it to remote sensing observations. We compare data from the double focusing mass spectrometer (DFMS) of the ROSINA experiment on ESA's Rosetta mission and previously published data from the two mass spectrometers COSAC (COmetary Sampling And Composition) and Ptolemy on the lander. The mass spectra of all three instruments show very similar patterns of mainly CHO-bearing molecules that sublimate at temperatures of 275 K. The DFMS data also show a great variety of CH-, CHN-, CHS-, CHO2- and CHNO-bearing saturated and unsaturated species. Methyl isocyanate, propanal and glycol aldehyde suggested by the earlier analysis of the measured COSAC spectrum could not be confirmed. The presence of polyoxymethylene in the Ptolemy spectrum was found to be unlikely. However, the signature of the aromatic compound toluene was identified in DFMS and Ptolemy data. Comparison with remote sensing instruments confirms the complex nature of the organics on the surface of 67P, which is much more diverse than anticipated

Gender-related differences in patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndromes: clinical presentation, biomarkers and diagnosis

Objectives: Gender differences in patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndromes (ACS) have not yet been fully characterized. The aim of this study was to assess gender-related disparities in clinical profiles, biomarkers and diagnoses of patients with suspected ACS. Methods: This single-centre, prospective cohort study included 377 consecutive patients presenting with suspected ACS to the emergency department. Suspected ACS was defined as a request for conventional troponin T (c-cTnT) measurements on clinical grounds. Results: Women were older than men (p = 0.004), and had a lower prevalence of known coronary artery and peripheral vascular disease (p < 0.05). c-cTnT was positive in 8% of female and in 14% of male patients (p = 0.16), TIMI risk score and cardiac biomarkers including c-cTnT, hs-cTnT, myoglobin, creatine kinase, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, myeloid-related protein 8/14 and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A were lower in women (p < 0.05). Women were less frequently diagnosed with ACS (30 vs. 51%), and were not referred for urgent coronary angiography as often as men (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, female gender was associated with a lower referral for coronary angiography (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.23-0.78, p = 0.006). Conclusions: In patients with suspected ACS, women presented with different biomarker profiles, and were less often diagnosed with ACS and referred to coronary angiography

600 years of wine must quality and April to August temperatures in western Europe 1420–2019

This study investigates the validity of wine must quality as an April-to-August temperature proxy between 1420 and 2019 based on expert ratings and quality measurements from Germany, Luxembourg, eastern France, and the Swiss Plateau. This is highly relevant as uncertainties remain on past climate variations during this period. The evidence was reviewed according to the best practice of historical climatology. Expert ratings tended to agree with Oechsle density measurements that gradually replaced them from the 1840s. A statistical model calibrated to predict wine must quality from climate data explains 75 % of the variance, underlining the potential value of wine must quality as a climate proxy. Premium crops were collected in years of early harvest involving high insolation during maturation, while poor crops resulted from very late harvests in cold and wet summers. An analysis of daily weather types for high- and low-quality years after 1763 shows marked differences. On a decadal timescale, the average quality was highest from 1470 to 1479, from 1536 to 1545, and from 1945 to 1954. Poor crops were collected in periods with prevailing cold and wet summers such as 1453 to 1466, 1485 to 1494, 1585 to 1614, 1685 to 1703, 1812 to 1821, and 1876 to 1936. In the period of enhanced warming after 1990, high quality became the rule.</p

Complex organosulfur molecules on comet 67P: Evidence from the ROSINA measurements and insights from laboratory simulations.

The ROSINA (Rosetta Orbiter Spectrometer for Ion and Neutral Analysis) instrument aboard the Rosetta mission revolutionized our understanding of cometary material composition. One of Rosetta's key findings is the complexity of the composition of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Here, we used ROSINA data to analyze dust particles that were volatilized during a dust event in September 2016 and report the detection of large organosulfur species and an increase in the abundances of sulfurous species previously detected in the coma. Our data support the presence of complex sulfur-bearing organics on the surface of the comet. In addition, we conducted laboratory simulations that show that this material may have formed from chemical reactions that were initiated by the irradiation of mixed ices containing H2S. Our findings highlight the importance of sulfur chemistry in cometary and precometary materials and the possibility of characterizing organosulfur materials in other comets and small icy bodies using the James Webb Space Telescope

Interception of comet Hyakutake's ion tail at a distance of 500 million kilometres

Remote sensing observations(1-5) and the direct sampling of material(6-8) from a few comets have established the characteristic composition of cometary gas. This gas is ionized by solar ultraviolet radiation and the solar wind to form 'pick-up' ions(9-11), ions in a low ionization state that retain the same compositional signatures as the original gas. The pick-up ions are carried outward by the solar wind, and they could in principle be detected far from the coma. (Sampling of pick-up ions has also been used to study interplanetary dust(12,13), Venus' tail(14) and the interstellar medium(15,16).) Here we report the serendipitous detection of cometary pick-up ions, most probably associated with the tail of comet Hyakutake, at a distance of 3.4 AU from the nucleus. Previous observations have provided a wealth of physical and chemical information about a small sample of comets(6-9), but this detection suggests that remote sampling of comet compositions, and the discovery of otherwise invisible comets, may be possible.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62756/1/404576a0.pd