The European Butterfly Indicator for grassland species: 1990-2013

This report presents the fifth version of the European Grassland Butterfly Indicator, one of the EU biodiversity indicators of the European Environment Agency

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr(-1) towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr(-1). Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.Peer reviewe

Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale

This study was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant P2BEP3_195232) and by the Academy of Finland (project 323527 and project 329251).Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Costs of migratory decisions : a comparison across eight white stork populations

Annual migratory movements can range from a few tens to thousands of kilometers, creating unique energetic requirements for each specific species and journey. Even within the same species, migration costs can vary largely because of flexible, opportunistic life history strategies. We uncover the large extent of variation in the lifetime migratory decisions of young white storks originating from eight populations. Not only did juvenile storks differ in their geographically distinct wintering locations, their diverse migration patterns also affected the amount of energy individuals invested for locomotion during the first months of their life. Overwintering in areas with higher human population reduced the stork's overall energy expenditure because of shorter daily foraging trips, closer wintering grounds, or a complete suppression of migration. Because migrants can change ecological processes in several distinct communities simultaneously, understanding their life history decisions helps not only to protect migratory species but also to conserve stable ecosystems.publishe

Результаты GPS/GSM-трекинга ювенильных степных орлов из России и Казахстана

В статье приводятся результаты прослеживания с помощью GPS/GSM-трекеров 19 ювенильных степных орлов (Aquila nipalensis) из России и Казахстана в 2013–2019 гг. Послегнездовой период до распада выводков длился от 30 до 82 дней, в среднем (n=18) 58,4±16,5 дней, причём он был короче у самок (в среднем 48,8±14,2 дней) и длиннее у самцов (в среднем 66,2±13,6 дней) (T=0, Z=2,37, p=0,018). Площадь индивидуальных участков, определённых как минимальный конвексный полигон (MCP) 95%, варьировала от 0,5 до 28,4 км2, составив в среднем (n=18) 6,94±8,95 км2, причём она была меньше у самок (в среднем 1,64±1,88 км2, n=8) и больше у самцов (в среднем 11,18±10,20 км2, n=10) (T=1,0, Z=2,55, p=0,01). Старт миграции степных орлов приходился в разные годы на период с 24 августа по 12 октября. Раньше начинали мигрировать птицы из Оренбургской области, позже – из Республики Алтай. Максимальная линейная дистанция от гнезда до места зимовки составила 4222 км. Для молодых птиц на первом году жизни показано отсутствие возвратов в натальную область, для орлов на втором году жизни доказана смена зимовок с Индо-Пакистанских на Аравийские и с Аравийских на Африканские

Tracking data highlight the importance of human-induced mortality for large migratory birds at a flyway scale

Human-induced direct mortality affects huge numbers of birds each year, threatening hundreds of species worldwide. Tracking technologies can be an important tool to investigate temporal and spatial patterns of bird mortality as well as their drivers. We compiled 1704 mortality records from tracking studies across the African-Eurasian flyway for 45 species, including raptors, storks, and cranes, covering the period from 2003 to 2021. Our results show a higher frequency of human-induced causes of mortality than natural causes across taxonomic groups, geographical areas, and age classes. Moreover, we found that the frequency of human-induced mortality remained stable over the study period. From the human-induced mortality events with a known cause (n = 637), three main causes were identified: electrocution (40.5 %), illegal killing (21.7 %), and poisoning (16.3 %). Additionally, combined energy infrastructure-related mortality (i.e., electrocution, power line collision, and wind-farm collision) represented 49 % of all human-induced mortality events. Using a random forest model, the main predictors of human-induced mortality were found to be taxonomic group, geographic location (latitude and longitude), and human footprint index value at the location of mortality. Despite conservation efforts, human drivers of bird mortality in the African-Eurasian flyway do not appear to have declined over the last 15 years for the studied group of species. Results suggest that stronger conservation actions to address these threats across the flyway can reduce their impacts on species. In particular, projected future development of energy infrastructure is a representative example where application of planning, operation, and mitigation measures can enhance bird conservation.publishedVersio

The European Butterfly Indicator for Grassland species: 1990-2015

This report presents the sixth version of the European Grassland Butterfly Indicator, one of the EU biodiversity indicators of the European Environment Agency.The indicator is based on more than 9200 transects in national Butterfly Monitoring Schemes covering 22 countries across Europe, most of them active in the European Union. In 2015, counts were made in more than 4500 transects.Butterflies represent the largest animal group (insects), highly included in food webs, having a high impact on ecosystem services and stability. This report does not represent only the patrimonial conservation of some species, but indicates the changes in biodiversity on grasslands and discusses underlying causes.Fluctuations in numbers between years are typical features of butterfly populations. The assessment of change istherefore made on an analysis of the underlying trend.Indicators were produced on EU, European (EU plus Norway and Switzerland) and pan-European level (including Ukraine, Russia and Armenia).The underlying analysis of the indicator shows that since 1990, grassland butterfly abundance has declined by 30%.The rate of loss has slowed in the last 5-10 years. Part of this slowing down might be caused by climate warming, as this favours cold-blooded animals like butterflies, thus masking the effects of intensification. In parts of Western Europe butterfly numbers outside nature reserves have come to an absolute minimum, meaning it is unlikely for the indicator to further drop.The priority now is to halt further losses and support recovery. This can only come about with greater protection and more sustainable management of semi-natural grassland

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future