Long-term variations in global sea level extremes

Decadal to multidecadal variations in sea level extremes unrelated to mean sea level changes have been investigated using long tide gauge records distributed worldwide. A state space approach has been applied that provides robust solutions and uncertainties of the time evolving characteristics of extremes, allowing for data gaps and uneven sampling, both common features of historical sea level time series. Two different models have been formulated for the intensity and for the occurrence of extreme sea level events and have been applied independently to each tide gauge record. Our results reveal two key findings: first, the intensity and the frequency of occurrence of extreme sea levels unrelated to mean sea level vary coherently on decadal scales in most of the sites examined (63 out of 77) and, second, extreme sea level changes are regionally consistent, thus pointing toward a common large-scale forcing. This variability of extremes associated with climate drivers should be considered in the framework of climate change studies.M. Marcos acknowledges a “Ramon y Cajal” contract funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy. This work was supported by the research project CLIMPACT (CGL2014-54246-C2-1-R) funded by the Spanish Ministry of EconomyPeer Reviewe

Cluster membership probabilities from proper motions and multiwavelength photometric catalogues: I. Method and application to the Pleiades cluster

We present a new technique designed to take full advantage of the high dimensionality (photometric, astrometric, temporal) of the DANCe survey to derive self-consistent and robust membership probabilities of the Pleiades cluster. We aim at developing a methodology to infer membership probabilities to the Pleiades cluster from the DANCe multidimensional astro-photometric data set in a consistent way throughout the entire derivation. The determination of the membership probabilities has to be applicable to censored data and must incorporate the measurement uncertainties into the inference procedure. We use Bayes' theorem and a curvilinear forward model for the likelihood of the measurements of cluster members in the colour-magnitude space, to infer posterior membership probabilities. The distribution of the cluster members proper motions and the distribution of contaminants in the full multidimensional astro-photometric space is modelled with a mixture-of-Gaussians likelihood. We analyse several representation spaces composed of the proper motions plus a subset of the available magnitudes and colour indices. We select two prominent representation spaces composed of variables selected using feature relevance determination techniques based in Random Forests, and analyse the resulting samples of high probability candidates. We consistently find lists of high probability (p > 0.9975) candidates with $\approx$ 1000 sources, 4 to 5 times more than obtained in the most recent astro-photometric studies of the cluster. The methodology presented here is ready for application in data sets that include more dimensions, such as radial and/or rotational velocities, spectral indices and variability.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, accepted by A&

The Seven Sisters DANCe III: Projected spatial distribution

Methods. We compute Bayesian evidences and Bayes Factors for a set of variations of the classical radial models by King (1962), Elson et al. (1987) and Lauer et al. (1995). The variations incorporate different degrees of model freedom and complexity, amongst which we include biaxial (elliptical) symmetry, and luminosity segregation. As a by-product of the model comparison, we obtain posterior distributions and maximum a posteriori estimates for each set of model parameters. Results. We find that the model comparison results depend on the spatial extent of the region used for the analysis. For a circle of 11.5 parsecs around the cluster centre (the most homogeneous and complete region), we find no compelling reason to abandon Kings model, although the Generalised King model, introduced in this work, has slightly better fitting properties. Furthermore, we find strong evidence against radially symmetric models when compared to the elliptic extensions. Finally, we find that including mass segregation in the form of luminosity segregation in the J band, is strongly supported in all our models. Conclusions. We have put the question of the projected spatial distribution of the Pleiades cluster on a solid probabilistic framework, and inferred its properties using the most exhaustive and least contaminated list of Pleiades candidate members available to date. Our results suggest however that this sample may still lack about 20% of the expected number of cluster members. Therefore, this study should be revised when the completeness and homogeneity of the data can be extended beyond the 11.5 parsecs limit. Such study will allow a more precise determination of the Pleiades spatial distribution, its tidal radius, ellipticity, number of objects and total mass.Comment: 39 pages, 31 figure

The Seven Sisters DANCe. I. Empirical isochrones, Luminosity and Mass Functions of the Pleiades cluster

The DANCe survey provides photometric and astrometric (position and proper motion) measurements for approximately 2 millions unique sources in a region encompassing $\approx$80deg$^{2}$ centered around the Pleiades cluster. We aim at deriving a complete census of the Pleiades, and measure the mass and luminosity function of the cluster. Using the probabilistic selection method described in Sarro+2014, we identify high probability members in the DANCe ($i\ge$14mag) and Tycho-2 ($V\lesssim$12mag) catalogues, and study the properties of the cluster over the corresponding luminosity range. We find a total of 2109 high probability members, of which 812 are new, making it the most extensive and complete census of the cluster to date. The luminosity and mass functions of the cluster are computed from the most massive members down to $\approx$0.025M$_{\odot}$. The size, sensitivity and quality of the sample result in the most precise luminosity and mass functions observed to date for a cluster. Our census supersedes previous studies of the Pleiades cluster populations, both in terms of sensitivity and accuracy.Comment: Language Edition Done. Final version to be published in A&A. Tables will be published at CDS. Meanwhile, they can be requested to H. Bouy (hbouy -at- cab . inta - csic . es

Corona-Australis DANCe I. Revisiting the census of stars with Gaia-DR2 data

Context. Corona-Australis is one of the nearest regions to the Sun with recent and ongoing star formation, but the current picture of its stellar (and substellar) content is not complete yet. Aims. We take advantage of the second data release of the Gaia space mission to revisit the stellar census and search for additional members of the young stellar association in Corona-Australis. Methods. We applied a probabilistic method to infer membership probabilities based on a multidimensional astrometric and photometric data set over a field of 128 deg(2) around the dark clouds of the region. Results. We identify 313 high-probability candidate members to the Corona-Australis association, 262 of which had never been reported as members before. Our sample of members covers the magnitude range between G greater than or similar to 5 mag and G less than or similar to 20 mag, and it reveals the existence of two kinematically and spatially distinct subgroups. There is a distributed "off-cloud" population of stars located in the north of the dark clouds that is twice as numerous as the historically known "on-cloud" population that is concentrated around the densest cores. By comparing the location of the stars in the HR-diagram with evolutionary models, we show that these two populations are younger than 10 Myr. Based on their infrared excess emission, we identify 28 Class II and 215 Class III stars among the sources with available infrared photometry, and we conclude that the frequency of Class II stars (i.e. "disc-bearing" stars) in the on-cloud region is twice as large as compared to the off-cloud population. The distance derived for the Corona-Australis region based on this updated census is d = 149.4(-0.4)(+0.4) pc, which exceeds previous estimates by about 20 pc. Conclusions. In this paper we provide the most complete census of stars in Corona-Australis available to date that can be confirmed with Gaia data. Furthermore, we report on the discovery of an extended and more evolved population of young stars beyond the region of the dark clouds, which was extensively surveyed in the past

The cosmic DANCe of Perseus I: Membership, phase-space structure, mass, and energy distributions

Context. Star-forming regions are excellent benchmarks for testing and validating theories of star formation and stellar evolution. The Perseus star-forming region being one of the youngest (<10 Myr), closest (280-320 pc), and most studied in the literature, is a fundamental benchmark. Aims. We aim to study the membership, phase-space structure, mass, and energy (kinetic plus potential) distribution of the Perseus star-forming region using public catalogues (Gaia, APOGEE, 2MASS, PanSTARRS). Methods. We use Bayesian methodologies accounting for extinction to identify the Perseus physical groups in the phase-space, retrieve their candidate members, derive their properties (age, mass, 3D positions, 3D velocities, and energy), and attempt to reconstruct their origin. Results. We identify 1052 candidate members in seven physical groups (one of them new) with ages between 3 and 10 Myr, dynamical super-virial states, and large fractions of energetically unbound stars. Their mass distributions are broadly compatible with that of Chabrier for masses >0.1 $M_\odot$ and do not show hints of over-abundance of low-mass stars in NGC1333 with respect to IC348. These groups' ages, spatial structure, and kinematics are compatible with at least three generations of stars. Future work is still needed to clarify if the formation of the youngest was triggered by the oldest. Conclusions. The exquisite Gaia data complemented with public archives and mined with comprehensive Bayesian methodologies allow us to identify 31% more members than in previous studies, discover a new physical group (Gorgophone: 7 Myr, 191 members, and 145 $M_\odot$), and confirm that the spatial, kinematic, and energy distributions of these groups support the hierarchical star-formation scenario.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics, 29 pages, 22 Figures, 8 tables one of them electroni

Kalkayotl: A cluster distance inference code

Context. The high-precision parallax data of the Gaia mission allows for significant improvements in the distance determination to stellar clusters and their stars. In order to obtain accurate and precise distance determinations, systematics such as parallax spatial correlations need to be accounted for, especially with regard to stars in small sky regions. Aims. Our aim is to provide the astrophysical community with a free and open code designed to simultaneously infer cluster parameters (i.e., distance and size) and distances to the cluster stars using Gaia parallax measurements. The code includes cluster-oriented prior families and it is specifically designed to deal with the Gaia parallax spatial correlations. Methods. A Bayesian hierarchical model is created to allow for the inference of both the cluster parameters and distances to its stars. Results. Using synthetic data that mimics Gaia parallax uncertainties and spatial correlations, we observe that our cluster-oriented prior families result in distance estimates with smaller errors than those obtained with an exponentially decreasing space density prior. In addition, the treatment of the parallax spatial correlations minimizes errors in the estimated cluster size and stellar distances, and avoids the underestimation of uncertainties. Although neglecting the parallax spatial correlations has no impact on the accuracy of cluster distance determinations, it underestimates the uncertainties and may result in measurements that are incompatible with the true value (i.e., falling beyond the 2 sigma uncertainties). Conclusions. The combination of prior knowledge with the treatment of Gaia parallax spatial correlations produces accurate (error < 10%) and trustworthy estimates (i.e., true values contained within the 2 sigma uncertainties) of cluster distances for clusters up to similar to 5 kpc, along with cluster sizes for clusters up to similar to 1 kpc

Chamaeleon DANCe: Revisiting the stellar populations of Chamaeleon I and Chamaeleon II with Gaia-DR2 data

Context. Chamaeleon is the southernmost low-mass star-forming complex within 200 pc from the Sun. Its stellar population has been extensively studied in the past, but the current census of the stellar content is not complete yet and deserves further investigation.Aims. We take advantage of the second data release of the Gaia space mission to expand the census of stars in Chamaeleon and to revisit the properties of the stellar populations associated to the Chamaeleon I (Cha I) and Chamaeleon II (Cha II) dark clouds.Methods. We perform a membership analysis of the sources in the Gaia catalogue over a field of 100 deg(2) encompassing the Chamaeleon clouds, and use this new census of cluster members to investigate the 6D structure of the complex.Results. We identify 188 and 41 high-probability members of the stellar populations in Cha I and Cha II, respectively, including 19 and 7 new members. Our sample covers the magnitude range from G=6 to G=20 mag in Cha I, and from G=12 to G=18 mag in Cha II. We confirm that the northern and southern subgroups of Cha I are located at different distances ( 191.4(-0.8)(+0.8) 191 . 4 - 0.8 + 0.8 pc and 186.7(-1.0)(+1.0) 186 . 7 - 1.0 + 1.0 pc), but they exhibit the same space motion within the reported uncertainties. Cha II is located at a distance of 197.5(-0.9)(+1.0) 197 . 5 - 0.9 + 1.0 pc and exhibits a space motion that is consistent with Cha I within the admittedly large uncertainties on the spatial velocities of the stars that come from radial velocity data. The median age of the stars derived from the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram and stellar models is about 1-2 Myr, suggesting that they are somewhat younger than previously thought. We do not detect significant age differences between the Chamaeleon subgroups, but we show that Cha II exhibits a higher fraction of disc-bearing stars compared to Cha I.Conclusions. This study provides the most complete sample of cluster members associated to the Chamaeleon clouds that can be produced with Gaia data alone. We use this new census of stars to revisit the 6D structure of this region with unprecedented precision

On a property of Lorenz curves with monotone elasticity and its application to the study of inequality by using tax data

The Lorenz curve is the most widely used graphical tool for describing and comparing inequality of income distributions. In this paper, we show that the elasticity of this curve is an indicator of the effect, in terms of inequality, of a truncation of the income distribution. As an application, we consider tax returns as equivalent to the truncation from below of a hypothetical income distribution. Then, we replace this hypothetical distribution by the income distribution obtained from a general household survey and use the dual Lorenz curve to anticipate this effect.Peer Reviewe