Who is confronted to insecure labor market histories? Some evidence based on the French labor market transition

This paper presents some empirical evidence on the French labor market focusing on transitions between stable jobs, temporary work, unemployment and non-participation. The model used is based on a Markov chain mixture which allows to distinguish labor market histories that are confined to contingent work and non-employment from the non-confined ones. This enables us to identify, quantify and characterize (conditional on observable characteristics) the workers who never accede to stable jobs and remain stuck to temporary jobs and non-employment spells. We consider quarterly labor market transitions, observed from 2003 to 2006 in the Labor Force survey (LFS). We find that on the whole, about 5% of the working age population experience confined transition dynamics: they cannot access to stable jobs. Confined workers are less educated and are more likely to live in distressed areas.labor market mobility, labor market transitions, mover-stayer models, Markov chains

Being well as time goes by: future time perspective and well-­being

The authors analyze data from the European Social Survey (ESS3,2006) with the framework of Socioemotional Selectivity Theory (SST, Carstensen, Fung & Charles, 2003). In order to explore the extent to which future time perspective (FTP) is related to social goals, they test SST in a representative sample of adults from of 23 countries (43000 individual responses). The study also analyses the benefits for SWB (subjective well-being) and mental health of implementing motivationally consistent social goals. The associations of FTP with age and health, as well as with expressed social goals replicate results from SST obtained in previous studies. Although SWB is higher and depression is lower when FTP is open-ended, it only increases with congruence between motivation and objectives for persons with open-ended FTP. For those with limited FTP, congruency is associated with lower SWB levels and higher depression. These results challenge the importance for well-being of congruency between FTP and social goals and stress the importance of social acceptance and autonomy for all the profiles of FTP, but especially for persons with limited future time perspective

Hélène Le Meaux, L’iconographie orientalisante de la péninsule Ibérique. Questions de styles et d’échanges (viiie-vie siècles av. J.-C.)

Le présent ouvrage est issu d’une thèse de doctorat soutenue en juin 2004 à l’Université de Paris IV. Hélène Le Meaux nous propose, je la cite, « une contribution à l’analyse du goût pour “l’oriental” » dont témoigne la plupart des sociétés du bassin méditerranéen au début du Ier millénaire av. J.-C. Elle part d’un corpus iconographique établi à partir d’objets mis au jour dans la péninsule Ibérique. Sa démarche se place ainsi dans la lignée historiographique des études de la transmission des..

The heterogeneity of ethnic unemployment gaps

This paper investigates the heterogeneity of ethnic employment gaps using a new single-index based approach. Instead of stratifying our sample by age or education, we study ethnic employment gaps along a continuous measure of employability, the employment probability minority workers would have if their characteristics were priced as in the majority group. We apply this method to French males, comparing those whose parents are North African immigrants and those with native parents. We find that both the raw and the unexplained ethnic employment differentials are larger for low-employability workers than for high-employability ones. We show in a theoretical framework that this heterogeneity can be accounted for by homogeneous underlying mechanisms and is not evidence for, say, heterogeneous discrimination. Finally, we discuss our main empirical findings in the light of simple taste-based vs. statistical discrimination models

Robust Sign-Based and Hodges-Lehmann Estimators in Linear Median Regressions with Heterogenous Serially Dependent Errors

We propose estimators for the parameters of a linear median regression without any assumption on the shape of the error distribution – including no condition on the existence of moments – allowing for heterogeneity (or heteroskedasticity) of unknown form, noncontinuous distributions, and very general serial dependence (linear or nonlinear) including GARCH-type and stochastic volatility of unknown order. The estimators follow from a reverse inference approach, based on the class of distribution-free sign tests proposed in Coudin and Dufour (2009, Econometrics J.) under a mediangale assumption. As a result, the estimators inherit strong robustness properties from their generating tests. Since the proposed estimators are based on maximizing a test statistic (or a p-value function) over different null hypotheses, they can be interpreted as Hodges-Lehmann-type (HL) estimators. It is easy to adapt the sign-based estimators to account for linear serial dependence. Both finite-sample and large-sample properties are established under weak regularity conditions. The proposed estimators are median unbiased (under symmetry and estimator unicity) and satisfy natural equivariance properties. Consistency and asymptotic normality are established without any condition on error moment existence, allowing for heterogeneity (or heteroskedasticity) of unknown form, noncontinuous distributions, and very general serial dependence (linear or nonlinear). These conditions are considerably weaker than those used to show corresponding results for LAD estimators. In a Monte Carlo study on bias and mean square error, we find that sign-based estimators perform better than LAD-type estimators, especially in heteroskedastic settings. The proposed procedures are applied to a trend model of the Standard and Poor’s composite price index, where disturbances are affected by both heavy tails (non-normality) and heteroskedasticity.sign test, median regression, Hodges-Lehmann estimator, p-value; least absolute deviations, quantile regression; simultaneous inference, Monte Carlo tests, projection methods, nonnormality, heteroskedasticity; serial dependence; GARCH; stochastic volatility.,

The CPI, Mirror of the Cost of Living in France? Evidence based on the Engel Curves Analysis

This paper studies the existence of an diverging trend between the French Consumer Price Index and the cost of living, by an intertemporal comparison of food Engel curves. We use the methodology developed by Costa (2001) and Hamilton (2001). CPI bias estimates are derived from the gap between the CPI-deflated Engel curves estimated at different dates. The French CPI series and the French Household Budget surveys (Budget de Famille) from 1979 to 2006 are used. The analysis is performed by categories of households. A large range of techniques is used to alleviate potential problems that may occur with survey data: robust estimation, instrumental techniques, or rescaling in order to correct potential imperfect declarations. The results differ according to the choice of using raw survey data or data rescaled on National Accounts aggregates. However, even though the conclusions on the magnitudes of the biases differ, bias estimates are always non-negative. As a consequence, the results found do not support the widespread presumption that the French CPI would have under-estimated changes in the cost of living between 1979 and 2006.Cost of Living; Consumer Price Index; CPI bias; Cost of living index; Engel law; Engel curves

Hélène Le Meaux, L’iconographie orientalisante de la péninsule Ibérique. Questions de styles et d’échanges (viiie-vie siècles av. J.-C.)

Le présent ouvrage est issu d’une thèse de doctorat soutenue en juin 2004 à l’Université de Paris IV. Hélène Le Meaux nous propose, je la cite, « une contribution à l’analyse du goût pour “l’oriental” » dont témoigne la plupart des sociétés du bassin méditerranéen au début du Ier millénaire av. J.-C. Elle part d’un corpus iconographique établi à partir d’objets mis au jour dans la péninsule Ibérique. Sa démarche se place ainsi dans la lignée historiographique des études de la transmission des..

Inférence exacte et non paramétrique dans les modèles de régression et les modèles structurels en présence d'hétéroscédasticité de forme arbitraire

Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal

Wage inequalities in France 1976-2004: a quantile regression analysis

This paper studies changes in wage differentials accross education groups for full-time male workers in the French private sector, from 1976 to 2004. We apply quantile regressions to Mincer-type equations to disentangle between- and within-education group wage inequalities, and we describe separately their evolutions. We use a matched dataset of administrative data and Census information, which contains yearly data. Our main results are: (1) the overall wage inequality was stable from 1976 to 1992 and slightly decreased from 1995 to 2004. (2) Within-education group wage inequalities increase with education and are higher across non-vocational degrees than vocational ones. (3) Between-education group wage inequalities increase with experience. (4) The within-education group wage inequalities were rather stable from 1976 to 1992 and decreased between 1995 and 2004, strongly for low levels of experience. (5) The between-education group wage inequalities decreased all over the period, due to decreasing education premiums, particularly for low levels of experience. These results are related to the dramatic evolutions of the French labor market during this period: older cohorts gradually replaced by more educated ones, unemployment and minimum wage rises.wage differentials by skills, wage inequality, within-group wage inequality, between-group wage inequality, return heterogeneity, quantile regressions