Film distributors occasionally withhold movies from critics before their release. Cold openings
provide a natural field setting to test models of limited strategic thinking. In a set of 856 widely
released movies, cold opening produces a significant 15% increase in domestic box office revenue
(though not in foreign markets and DVD sales), consistent with the hypothesis that some moviegoers
do not infer low quality from cold opening. Structural parameter estimates indicate 1–2 steps of
strategic thinking by moviegoers (comparable to experimental estimates). However, movie studios
appear to think moviegoers are sophisticated since only 7% of movies are opened cold
