A Mutagenetic Tree Hidden Markov Model for Longitudinal Clonal HIV Sequence Data

RNA viruses provide prominent examples of measurably evolving populations. In HIV infection, the development of drug resistance is of particular interest, because precise predictions of the outcome of this evolutionary process are a prerequisite for the rational design of antiretroviral treatment protocols. We present a mutagenetic tree hidden Markov model for the analysis of longitudinal clonal sequence data. Using HIV mutation data from clinical trials, we estimate the order and rate of occurrence of seven amino acid changes that are associated with resistance to the reverse transcriptase inhibitor efavirenz.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figure

A multivariate analysis on non-nucleoside HIV-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitors and resistance induced by mutation

This paper describes the use of multivariate statistical procedure PCA as a tool to explore the inhibitory activity of classes of NNRTIs against HIV-1 viruses (wild type and more frequent mutants, Y181C, V106A, K103N, L100I) and against RT enzyme. The analysis of correlations between biological activity and molecular descriptors or similarity indexes allowed a reliable classification of the fifty five derivatives considered in this study. The best results were obtained in the case of L100I and K103N mutants for which the higher number of assignments was found when the principal components derived from the descriptors were used. On this basis this statistical approach is proposed as a reliable method for the prediction of the activity of NNRTIs, for which the data against mutant strains have not been reported

Influence of soak time and fish accumulation on catches of reef fishes in a multispecies trap survey

Catch rates from fishery-independent surveys often are assumed to vary in proportion to the actual abundance of a population, but this approach assumes that the catchability coefficient (q) is constant. When fish accumulate in a gear, the rate at which the gear catches fish can decline, and, as a result, catch asymptotes and q declines with longer fishing times. We used data from long-term trap surveys (1990–2011) in the southeastern U.S. Atlantic to determine whether traps saturated for 8 reef fish species because of the amount of time traps soaked or the level of fish accumulation (the total number of individuals of all fish species caught in a trap). We used a delta-generalized-additive model to relate the catch of each species to a variety of predictor variables to determine how catch was influenced by soak time and fish accumulation after accounting for variability in catch due to the other predictor variables in the model. We found evidence of trap saturation for all 8 reef fish species examined. Traps became saturated for most species across the range of soak times examined, but trap saturation occurred for 3 fish species because of fish accumulation levels in the trap. Our results indicate that, to infer relative abundance levels from catch data, future studies should standardize catch or catch rates with nonlinear regression models that incorporate soak time, fish accumulation, and any other predictor variable that may ultimately influence catch. Determination of the exact mechanisms that cause trap saturation is a critical need for accurate stock assessment, and our results indicate that these mechanisms may vary considerably among species

Climate Indices, Water Temperature, and Fishing Predict Broad Scale Variation in Fishes on Temperate Reefs

Determining what abiotic and biotic factors affect the diversity and abundance of species through time and space is a basic goal of ecology and an integral step in predicting current and future distributions. Given the pervasive effect of humans worldwide, including anthropogenic factors when quantifying community dynamics is needed to understand discrete and emergent effects of humans on marine ecosystems, especially systems with economically important species. However, there are limited studies that combine a large-scale ecological survey with multiple natural and anthropogenic factors to determine the drivers of community dynamics of temperate reef systems. We combined data from a 24-year fish survey on temperate reefs along the Southeast United States coast with information on recreational and commercial fisheries landings, surface and bottom temperature, habitat characteristics, and climate indices to determine what factors may alter the community structure of fishes within this large marine ecosystem. We found that both abundance and richness of temperate reef fishes declined from 1990 to 2013. Climate indices and local temperature explained the greatest variation, and recreational fishing explained slightly more variation compared to commercial fishing in the temperate reef fish community over a multi-decadal scale. When including habitat characteristics in a 3 year analysis, depth, and local temperature explained the greatest variation in fish assemblage, while the influence of habitat was comparatively minimal. Finally, the interaction between predictor variables and fish traits indicated that bigger and longer-lived fishes were positively correlated with depth and winter temperature. Our findings suggest that lesser-studied anthropogenic impacts, such as recreational fishing, may influence communities throughout large ecosystems as much as other well-studied impacts such as climate change and commercial fishing. In addition, climate indices should be considered when assessing changes, natural or anthropogenic, to fish communities

Variation in movement patterns of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) inferred from conventional tagging and ultrasonic telemetry

We used 25 years of conventional tagging data (n= 6173 recoveries) and 3 years of ultrasonic telemetry data (n=105 transmitters deployed) to examine movement rates and directional preferences of four age classes of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) in estuarine and coastal waters of North Carolina. Movement rates of conventionally tagged red drum were dependent on the age, region, and season of tagging. Age-1 and age-2 red drum tagged along the coast generally moved along the coast, whereas fish tagged in oligohaline waters far from the coast were primarily recovered in coastal regions in fall months. Adult (age-4+) red drum moved from overwintering grounds on the continental shelf through inlets into Pamlico Sound in spring and summer months and departed in fall. Few tagged red drum were recovered in adjacent states (0.6% of all recoveries); however, some adult red drum migrated seasonally from overwintering grounds in coastal North Carolina northward to Virginia in spring, returning in fall. Age-2 transmitter-tracked red drum displayed seasonal emigration from a small tributary, but upstream and downstream movements within the tributary were correlated with fluctuating salinity regimes and not season. Large-scale conventional tagging and ultrasonic telemetry programs can provide valuable insights into the complex movement patterns of estuarine fish

Viral population estimation using pyrosequencing

The diversity of virus populations within single infected hosts presents a major difficulty for the natural immune response as well as for vaccine design and antiviral drug therapy. Recently developed pyrophosphate based sequencing technologies (pyrosequencing) can be used for quantifying this diversity by ultra-deep sequencing of virus samples. We present computational methods for the analysis of such sequence data and apply these techniques to pyrosequencing data obtained from HIV populations within patients harboring drug resistant virus strains. Our main result is the estimation of the population structure of the sample from the pyrosequencing reads. This inference is based on a statistical approach to error correction, followed by a combinatorial algorithm for constructing a minimal set of haplotypes that explain the data. Using this set of explaining haplotypes, we apply a statistical model to infer the frequencies of the haplotypes in the population via an EM algorithm. We demonstrate that pyrosequencing reads allow for effective population reconstruction by extensive simulations and by comparison to 165 sequences obtained directly from clonal sequencing of four independent, diverse HIV populations. Thus, pyrosequencing can be used for cost-effective estimation of the structure of virus populations, promising new insights into viral evolutionary dynamics and disease control strategies.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figure

A Randomised Trial Comparing Genotypic and Virtual Phenotypic Interpretation of HIV Drug Resistance: The CREST Study

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of different HIV drug resistance test reports (genotype and virtual phenotype) in patients who were changing their antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN: Randomised, open-label trial with 48-week followup. SETTING: The study was conducted in a network of primary healthcare sites in Australia and New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: Patients failing current ART with plasma HIV RNA > 2000 copies/mL who wished to change their current ART were eligible. Subjects were required to be > 18 years of age, previously treated with ART, have no intercurrent illnesses requiring active therapy, and to have provided written informed consent. INTERVENTIONS: Eligible subjects were randomly assigned to receive a genotype (group A) or genotype plus virtual phenotype (group B) prior to selection of their new antiretroviral regimen. OUTCOME MEASURES: Patient groups were compared for patterns of ART selection and surrogate outcomes (plasma viral load and CD4 counts) on an intention-to-treat basis over a 48-week period. RESULTS: Three hundred and twenty seven patients completing > one month of followup were included in these analyses. Resistance tests were the primary means by which ART regimens were selected (group A: 64%, group B: 62%; p = 0.32). At 48 weeks, there were no significant differences between the groups for mean change from baseline plasma HIV RNA (group A: 0.68 log copies/mL, group B: 0.58 log copies/mL; p = 0.23) and mean change from baseline CD4+ cell count (group A: 37 cells/mm(3), group B: 50 cells/mm(3); p = 0.28). CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of clear demonstrated benefits arising from the use of the virtual phenotype interpretation, this study suggests resistance testing using genotyping linked to a reliable interpretive algorithm is adequate for the management of HIV infection

Constrained patterns of covariation and clustering of HIV-1 non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance mutations

Objectives:We characterized pairwise and higher order patterns of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibi-tor (NNRTI)-selected mutations because multiple mutations are usually required for clinically significant resist-ance to second-generation NNRTIs. Patients and methods: We analysed viruses from 13039 individuals with sequences containing at least one of 52 published NNRTI-selected mutations, including 1133 viruses from individuals who received efavirenz but no other NNRTI and 1510 viruses from individuals who received nevirapine but no other NNRTI. Of the 17 reported etravirine resistance-associated mutations (RAMs), Y181C/I/V, L100I, K101P and M230L were considered major based on published in vitro susceptibility data

Shoal size as a key determinant of vulnerability to capture under a simulated fishery scenario

Group living is widespread among animals and has a range of positive effects on individual foraging and predator avoidance. For fishes, capture by humans constitutes a major source of mortality, and the ecological effects of group living could carry‐over to harvest scenarios if fish are more likely to interact with fishing gears when in social groups. Furthermore, individual metabolic rate can affect both foraging requirements and social behaviors, and could, therefore, have an additional influence on which fish are most vulnerable to capture by fishing. Here, we studied whether social environment (i.e., social group size) and metabolic rate exert independent or interactive effects on the vulnerability of wild zebrafish (Danio rerio) to capture by a baited passive trap gear. Using video analysis, we observed the tendency for individual fish to enter a deployed trap when in different shoal sizes. Fish in larger groups were more vulnerable to capture than fish tested individually or at smaller group sizes. Specifically, focal fish in larger groups entered traps sooner, spent more total time within the trap, and were more likely to re‐enter the trap after an escape. Contrary to expectations, there was evidence that fish with a higher SMR took longer to enter traps, possibly due to a reduced tendency to follow groupmates or attraction to conspecifics already within the trap. Overall, however, social influences appeared to largely overwhelm any link between vulnerability and metabolic rate. The results suggest that group behavior, which in a natural predation setting is beneficial for avoiding predators, could be maladaptive under a trap harvest scenario and be an important mediator of which traits are under harvest associated selection