A yarn interaction model for circular braiding

Machine control data for the automation of the circular braiding process has been generated using previously published mathematical models that neglect yarn interaction. This resulted in a significant deviation from the required braid angle at mandrel cross-sectional changes, likely caused by an incorrect convergence zone length, in turn caused by this neglect. Therefore the objective is to use a new model that includes the yarn interaction, assuming an axisymmetrical biaxial process with a cylindrical mandrel and Coulomb friction. Experimental validation with carbon yarns and a 144 carrier machine confirms a convergence zone length decrease of 25% with respect to a model without yarn interaction for the case analyzed, matching the model prediction using a coefficient of friction of around 0.3

Optimisation of the circular braiding process

A geometry-based procedure for circular braiding take-up speed optimization is proposed for\ud arbitrary mandrels. The resulting virtual braid angle deviates a few degrees from the required\ud braid angle while the experimental error is up to 10 degrees in tapered regions, mainly caused\ud by the neglect of yarn interaction in the model

A spool pattern tool for circular braiding

Circular Braiding is a composite material preform manufacturing process that is used to manufacture bi- and\ud triaxial braids. A procedure is presented for relating braid patterns to spool patterns. The procedure is based\ud on the observation that physical removal of a bias spool from the machine corresponds to removal of a row or\ud column of intersections from the braid pattern matrix. The procedure can assist in the reduction of trial-anderror\ud in the product manufacturing process and enables new features in computational braiding simulation and\ud optimization

Enhanced Bordetella pertussisacquisition rate in adolescents during the 2012 epidemic in the Netherlands and evidence for prolonged antibody persistence after infection.

IntroductionIn 2012 a large epidemic of pertussis occurred in the Netherlands. We assessed pertussis toxin (PT) antibody levels in longitudinal serum samples from Dutch 10-18 year-olds, encompassing the epidemic, to investigate pertussis infection incidence.Methods: Blood was sampled in October 2011 (n = 239 adolescents), then 1 year (2012; n = 228) and 3 years (2014; n = 167) later. PT-IgG concentrations were measured by immunoassay and concentrations ≥50 IU/mL (seropositive) assumed indicative of an infection within the preceding year.Results: During the 2012 epidemic, 10% of participants became seropositive, while this was just 3% after the epidemic. The pertussis acquisition rate proved to be sixfold higher during the epidemic (97 per 1,000 person-years) compared with 2012-2014 (16 per 1,000 person-years). In 2012, pertussis notifications among adolescents nationwide were 228/100,000 (0.23%), which is at least 40 times lower than the seropositivity percentage. Remarkably, 17 of the 22 seropositive participants in 2011, were still seropositive in 2012 and nine remained seropositive for at least 3 years.Discussion: Longitudinal studies allow a better estimation of pertussis infections in the population. A PT-IgG concentration ≥50 IU/mL as indication of recent infection may overestimate these numbers in cross-sectional serosurveillance and should be used carefully

Meningokokkenziekte in Nederland : Achtergrondinformatie voor de Gezondheidsraad

Meningococcal disease is a very serious infectious disease caused by a bacterium, the meningococcus. There are different types of meningococcus; people become ill mainly from the B, C, W and Y serogroups. Since 2002, vaccination against serogroup C meningococcal disease has been included in the National Immunisation Programme for children of 14 months. As a result, serogroup C meningococcal disease has virtually disappeared. Vaccines against serogroup B have recently become available. In addition, since 2015, there has been a rapid increase in serogroup W meningococcal disease. Multi-component vaccines are available against A, C, W and Y serogroups. Based on these developments, among others, the Health Council will advise the Minister for Health, Welfare and Sport on whether and how the current immunisation programme against meningococcal disease should be adapted. To this end, RIVM has collected background information and recent data on meningococcal disease in the Netherlands. It includes the number of people in the Netherlands who become ill each year, the efficacy and safety of the vaccines, and what the public thinks about vaccination against invasive meningococcal disease. The infection causes a severe medical condition such as meningitis or blood poisoning, which can rapidly develop into shock, frequently causing death. The disease often begins with flu-like symptoms and fever which subsequently worsen very rapidly. The infection is relatively rare in the Netherlands; there are currently 100 to 150 patients a year. Five to ten percent of these patients die despite antibiotics and intensive care. Thirty percent of the patients are left with lifelong impairments such as hearing loss, limb amputation or epilepsy. Meningococcal disease is most common in children under the age of 5, adolescents and the elderly.Meningokokkenziekte is een zeer ernstige infectieziekte die veroorzaakt wordt door een bacterie, de meningokok. Er zijn verschillende typen meningokokken; mensen worden vooral ziek van de serogroepen B, C, W en Y. Vaccinatie tegen meningokokkenziekte serogroep C is in Nederland sinds 2002 opgenomen in het Rijksvaccinatieprogramma voor kinderen van 14 maanden. Hierdoor komt meningokokkenziekte door serogroep C nauwelijks meer voor. Sinds kort zijn vaccins beschikbaar tegen serogroep B. Daarnaast is er sinds 2015 een snelle toename in meningokokkenziekte door serogroep W. Er zijn combinatievaccins beschikbaar tegen serogroep A, C, W en Y. Vanwege ondermeer deze ontwikkelingen gaat de Gezondheidsraad de minister van VWS adviseren of, en op welke manier, het huidige vaccinatieprogramma tegen meningokokkenziekte aangepast moet worden. Daartoe heeft het RIVM achtergrondinformatie en recente data over meningokokkenziekte in Nederland verzameld. Het gaat onder meer om het aantal mensen in Nederland dat jaarlijks ziek wordt, de effectiviteit en veiligheid van de vaccins, en hoe het publiek denkt over vaccinatie tegen invasieve meningokokkenziekte. De infectie geeft een ernstig ziektebeeld zoals hersenvliesontsteking of een bloedvergiftiging, die zich snel kan ontwikkelen tot een shock waar veel mensen aan overlijden. De ziekte begint vaak met griepachtige verschijnselen en koorts die vervolgens zeer snel verergeren. De infectie is in Nederland relatief zeldzaam; op dit moment zijn er 100 tot 150 patiënten per jaar. Van deze patiënten overlijdt 5-10 procent ondanks antibiotica en intensieve zorg. 30 procent van de patiënten houdt er levenslang beperkingen aan over zoals gehoorverlies, amputatie van een ledemaat of epilepsie. Meningokokkenziekte komt het meest voor bij kinderen jonger dan 5 jaar, adolescenten en ouderenMinisterie van VW

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362