Integrating remote sensing datasets into ecological modelling: a Bayesian approach

Process-based models have been used to simulate 3-dimensional complexities of forest ecosystems and their temporal changes, but their extensive data requirement and complex parameterisation have often limited their use for practical management applications. Increasingly, information retrieved using remote sensing techniques can help in model parameterisation and data collection by providing spatially and temporally resolved forest information. In this paper, we illustrate the potential of Bayesian calibration for integrating such data sources to simulate forest production. As an example, we use the 3-PG model combined with hyperspectral, LiDAR, SAR and field-based data to simulate the growth of UK Corsican pine stands. Hyperspectral, LiDAR and SAR data are used to estimate LAI dynamics, tree height and above ground biomass, respectively, while the Bayesian calibration provides estimates of uncertainties to model parameters and outputs. The Bayesian calibration contrasts with goodness-of-fit approaches, which do not provide uncertainties to parameters and model outputs. Parameters and the data used in the calibration process are presented in the form of probability distributions, reflecting our degree of certainty about them. After the calibration, the distributions are updated. To approximate posterior distributions (of outputs and parameters), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling approach is used (25 000 steps). A sensitivity analysis is also conducted between parameters and outputs. Overall, the results illustrate the potential of a Bayesian framework for truly integrative work, both in the consideration of field-based and remotely sensed datasets available and in estimating parameter and model output uncertainties

Simulating impacts of climate and management on timothy growth in Northern countries

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Закономерности распределения аномальных концентраций гелия в палеозойских отложениях Донбасса

Підвищені концентрації гелію у вільних і розчинених газах у вугільно-породному масиві Донбасу приурочені до зон зчленування Донбасу з Приазовським і Воронезьким кристалічними масивами і Головної антикліналі. Диз'юнктивні тектонічні порушення глибокого закладення служили, ймовірно, шляхами транзиту гелію від кристалічних порід фундаменту в палеозойські відклади Донбасу, і підвищений вміст гелію може служити індикатором шляхів транзиту газів з глибоких горизонтів Донецького вугільного басейну.Elevated concentrations of helium in free and dissolved gases in coal-rock mass of the Donets Coal Basin are confined to the junction zones of the Donets Coal Basin with the Priazovie and Voronezh crystalline core-areas and Glavnaya (Principal) Anticline. Deep-laid disjunctive dislocations were probably the ways for transit of helium from crystalline basement rocks into Paleozoic deposits of the Basin. Elevated concentrations of helium can also serve as indicators of the ways for transit of gases from deep levels of the Donets Coal Basin

Long-term Effect of Bariatric Surgery on the Use of Levothyroxine and Thyroid Levels

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of bariatric surgery on the defined daily dose of levothyroxine (DDD LT4), thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), and free thyroxine (fT4) in female patients with hypothyroidism until 48 months after surgery. METHODS: A retrospective observational study of hypothyroid patients who underwent bariatric surgery. Changes in DDD LT4, TSH, and fT4 over a 48 month period after surgery were analyzed. RESULTS: Thirty-seven patients were included: 27 Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), 6 sleeve gastrectomy (SG), 3 adjustable gastric band, and 1 one anastomosis gastric bypass. The median DDD LT4 decreased from 125 µg at baseline to 100 µg 12 months after surgery. From 24 to 48 months after surgery, the median DDD LT4 was stable at 125 µg. Most dose adjustments occurred during the first 24 months after surgery. In the time period of 24-48 months after surgery, the dose remained stable in 73.1% of the RYGB patients and in 60.0% of the SG patients. After 48 months in the RYGB group, no significant change in TSH and fT4 levels was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery led to frequent dose adjustments during the first 2 years after surgery. However, 24-48 months after surgery in the majority of patients, the dosage remained stable. No significant change in TSH and fT4 was observed 48 months after RYGB. In the first 2 years after surgery, clinicians should frequently monitor TSH and fT4 for individual dose adjustment of levothyroxine. Thereafter, the frequency of monitoring may be decreased

One Health Determinants of Escherichia coli Antimicrobial Resistance in Humans in the Community:An Umbrella Review

To date, the scientific literature on health variables for Escherichia coli antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has been investigated throughout several systematic reviews, often with a focus on only one aspect of the One Health variables: human, animal, or environment. The aim of this umbrella review is to conduct a systematic synthesis of existing evidence on Escherichia coli AMR in humans in the community from a One Health perspective. PubMed, EMBASE, and CINAHL were searched on “antibiotic resistance” and “systematic review” from inception until 25 March 2022 (PROSPERO: CRD42022316431). The methodological quality was assessed, and the importance of identified variables was tabulated across all included reviews. Twenty-three reviews were included in this study, covering 860 primary studies. All reviews were of (critically) low quality. Most reviews focused on humans (20), 3 on animals, and 1 on both human and environmental variables. Antibiotic use, urinary tract infections, diabetes, and international travel were identified as the most important human variables. Poultry farms and swimming in freshwater were identified as potential sources for AMR transmission from the animal and environmental perspectives. This umbrella review highlights a gap in high-quality literature investigating the time between variable exposure, AMR testing, and animal and environmental AMR variables.</p

Prognostic value of patient-reported quality of life for survival in oesophagogastric cancer:Analysis from the population-based POCOP study

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence of trials demonstrates that patient-reported health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at diagnosis is prognostic for overall survival (OS) in oesophagogastric cancer. However, real-world data are lacking. Moreover, differences in disease stages and tumour-specific symptoms are usually not taken into consideration. The aim of this population-based study was to assess the prognostic value of HRQoL, including tumour-specific scales, on OS in patients with potentially curable and advanced oesophagogastric cancer. METHODS: Data were derived from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and the patient reported outcome registry (POCOP). Patients included in POCOP between 2016 and 2018 were stratified for potentially curable (cT1-4aNallM0) or advanced (cT4b or cM1) disease. HRQoL was measured with the EORTC QLQ-C30 and the tumour-specific OG25 module. Cox proportional hazards models assessed the impact of HRQoL, sociodemographic and clinical factors (including treatment) on OS. RESULTS: In total, 924 patients were included. Median OS was 38.9 months in potentially curable patients (n = 795) and 10.6 months in patients with advanced disease (n = 129). Global Health Status was independently associated with OS in potentially curable patients (HR 0.89, 99%CI 0.82-0.97), together with several other HRQoL items: appetite loss, dysphagia, eating restrictions, odynophagia, and body image. In advanced disease, the Summary Score was the strongest independent prognostic factor (HR 0.75, 99%CI 0.59-0.94), followed by fatigue, pain, insomnia and role functioning. CONCLUSION: In a real-world setting, HRQoL was prognostic for OS in patients with potentially curable and advanced oesophagogastric cancer. Several HRQoL domains, including the Summary Score and several OG25 items, could be used to develop or update prognostic models

Specialization and optimization of constraint programs with dynamic scheduling

In this report we discuss some of the issues involved in the specialization and optimization of constraint logic programs with dynamic scheduling. Dynamic scheduling, as any other form of concurrency, increases the expressive power of constraint logic programs, but also introduces run-time overhead. The objective of the specialization and optimization is to reduce as much as possible such overhead automatically, while preserving the semantics of the original programs. This is done by program transformation based on global analysis. We present implementation techniques for this purpose and report on experimental results obtained from an implementation of the techniques in the context of the CIAO compiler

Discovery of a bow shock around Vela X-1

We report the discovery of a symmetric bow shock around the well-known high-mass X-ray binary (HMXB) Vela X-1. Wind bow shocks are a ubiquitous phenomenon around OB-runaway stars, but now such a structure is found around a HMXB. The presence of a bow shock indicates that the system has a high (supersonic) velocity with respect to the interstellar medium. From the symmetry of the bow shock, the direction of motion and, moreover, the origin and age of the system can be derived. Our observation supports Blaauw's scenario for the formation of an OB-runaway star by the supernova explosion of the binary companion.Comment: 14 pages, latex (including style file), 3 postscript figures, ApJ Letters, in pres

Bayesian calibration, comparison and averaging of six forest models, using data from Scots pine stands across Europe

Forest management requires prediction of forest growth, but there is no general agreement about which models best predict growth, how to quantify model parameters, and how to assess the uncertainty of model predictions. In this paper, we show how Bayesian calibration (BC), Bayesian model comparison (BMC) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) can help address these issues. We used six models, ranging from simple parameter-sparse models to complex process-based models: 3PG, 4C, ANAFORE, BASFOR, BRIDGING and FORMIND. For each model, the initial degree of uncertainty about parameter values was expressed in a prior probability distribution. Inventory data for Scots pine on tree height and diameter, with estimates of measurement uncertainty, were assembled for twelve sites, from four countries: Austria, Belgium, Estonia and Finland. From each country, we used data from two sites of the National Forest Inventories (NFIs), and one Permanent Sample Plot (PSP). The models were calibrated using the NFI-data and tested against the PSP-data. Calibration was done both per country and for all countries simultaneously, thus yielding country-specific and generic parameter distributions. We assessed model performance by sampling from prior and posterior distributions and comparing the growth predictions of these samples to the observations at the PSPs. We found that BC reduced uncertainties strongly in all but the most complex model. Surprisingly, country-specific BC did not lead to clearly better within-country predictions than generic BC. BMC identified the BRIDGING model, which is of intermediate complexity, as the most plausible model before calibration, with 4C taking its place after calibration. In this BMC, model plausibility was quantified as the relative probability of a model being correct given the information in the PSP-data. We discuss how the method of model initialisation affects model performance. Finally, we show how BMA affords a robust way of predicting forest growth that accounts for both parametric and model structural uncertainty

Modelling the hydrological behaviour of a coffee agroforestry basin in Costa Rica

UMR LISAH, Equipe Eau et Polluants en Bassins VersantsThe profitability of hydropower in Costa Rica is affected by soil erosion and sedimentation in dam reservoirs, which are in turn influenced by land use, infiltration and aquifer interactions with surface water. In order to foster the provision and payment for Hydrological Environmental Services (HES), a quantitative assessment of the impact of specific land uses on the functioning of drainage-basins is required. The present paper aims to study the water balance partitioning in a volcanic coffee agroforestry microbasin (1 km(2), steep slopes) in Costa Rica, as a first step towards evaluating sediment or contaminant loads. The main hydrological processes were monitored during one year, using flume, eddy-covariance flux tower, soil water profiles and piezometers. A new Hydro-SVAT lumped model is proposed, that balances SVAT (Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer) and basin-reservoir routines. The purpose of such a coupling was to achieve a trade-off between the expected performance of ecophysiological and hydrological models, which are often employed separately and at different spatial scales, either the plot or the basin. The calibration of the model to perform streamflow yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficient equal to 0.89 for the year 2009, while the validation of the water balance partitioning was consistent with the independent measurements of actual evapotranspiration (R-2 = 0.79, energy balance closed independently), soil water content (R-2 = 0.35) and water table level (R-2 = 0.84). Eight months of data from 2010 were used to validate modelled streamflow, resulting in a NS = 0.75. An uncertainty analysis showed that the streamflow modelling was precise for nearly every time step, while a sensitivity analysis revealed which parameters mostly affected model precision, depending on the season. It was observed that 64% of the incident rainfall R flowed out of the basin as streamflow and 25% as evapotranspiration, while the remaining 11% is probably explained by deep percolation, measurement errors and/or inter-annual changes in soil and aquifer water stocks. The model indicated an interception loss equal to 4% of R, a surface runoff of 4% and an infiltration component of 92%. The modelled streamflow was constituted by 87% of baseflow originating from the aquifer, 7% of subsurface non-saturated runoff and 6% of surface runoff. Given the low surface runoff observed under the current physical conditions (andisol) and management practices (no tillage, planted trees, bare soil kept by weeding), this agroforestry system on a volcanic soil demonstrated potential to provide valuable HES, such as a reduced superficial displacement- capacity for fertilizers, pesticides and sediments, as well as a streamflow regulation function provided by the highly efficient mechanisms of aquifer recharge and discharge. The proposed combination of experimentation and modelling across ecophysiological and hydrological approaches proved to be useful to account for the behaviour of a given basin, so that it can be applied to compare HES provision for different regions or management alternatives