Confidence Is the Bridge between Multi-stage Decisions

Demanding tasks often require a series of decisions to reach a goal. Recent progress in perceptual decision-making has served to unite decision accuracy, speed, and confidence in a common framework of bounded evidence accumulation, furnishing a platform for the study of such multi-stage decisions. In many instances, the strategy applied to each decision, such as the speed-accuracy trade-off, ought to depend on the accuracy of the previous decisions. However, as the accuracy of each decision is often unknown to the decision maker, we hypothesized that subjects may carry forward a level of confidence in previous decisions to affect subsequent decisions. Subjects made two perceptual decisions sequentially and were rewarded only if they made both correctly. The speed and accuracy of individual decisions were explained by noisy evidence accumulation to a terminating bound. We found that subjects adjusted their speed-accuracy setting by elevating the termination bound on the second decision in proportion to their confidence in the first. The findings reveal a novel role for confidence and a degree of flexibility, hitherto unknown, in the brain's ability to rapidly and precisely modify the mechanisms that control the termination of a decision.We thank the Wellcome Trust, the Human Frontier Science Program, the Royal Society (Noreen Murray Professorship in Neurobiology to D.M.W.), Howard Hughes Medical Institute, National Eye Institute grant EY11378 to M.N.S., a Sloan Research Fellowship to R.K., and Simons Collaboration on the Global Brain grant 323439 to R.K

Confidence Is the Bridge between Multi-stage Decisions

Demanding tasks often require a series of decisions to reach a goal. Recent progress in perceptual decision-making has served to unite decision accuracy, speed, and confidence in a common framework of bounded evidence accumulation, furnishing a platform for the study of such multi-stage decisions. In many instances, the strategy applied to each decision, such as the speed-accuracy trade-off, ought to depend on the accuracy of the previous decisions. However, as the accuracy of each decision is often unknown to the decision maker, we hypothesized that subjects may carry forward a level of confidence in previous decisions to affect subsequent decisions. Subjects made two perceptual decisions sequentially and were rewarded only if they made both correctly. The speed and accuracy of individual decisions were explained by noisy evidence accumulation to a terminating bound. We found that subjects adjusted their speed-accuracy setting by elevating the termination bound on the second decision in proportion to their confidence in the first. The findings reveal a novel role for confidence and a degree of flexibility, hitherto unknown, in the brain's ability to rapidly and precisely modify the mechanisms that control the termination of a decision.We thank the Wellcome Trust, the Human Frontier Science Program, the Royal Society (Noreen Murray Professorship in Neurobiology to D.M.W.), Howard Hughes Medical Institute, National Eye Institute grant EY11378 to M.N.S., a Sloan Research Fellowship to R.K., and Simons Collaboration on the Global Brain grant 323439 to R.K

A neuronal device for the control of multi-step computations

We describe the operation of a neuronal device which embodies the computational principles of the `paper-and-pencil' machine envisioned by Alan Turing. The network is based on principles of cortical organization. We develop a plausible solution to implement pointers and investigate how neuronal circuits may instantiate the basic operations involved in assigning a value to a variable (i.e., x=5), in determining whether two variables have the same value and in retrieving the value of a given variable to be accessible to other nodes of the network. We exemplify the collective function of the network in simplified arithmetic and problem solving (blocks-world) tasks.Fil: Zylberberg, Ariel Dario. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Computación. Laboratorio de Inteligencia Artificial y Aplicaciones; ArgentinaFil: Paz, Luciano. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física. Laboratorio de Neurociencia Integrativa; ArgentinaFil: Roelfsema, Pieter R.. Commissariat A Energie Atomique; FranciaFil: Dehaene, Stanislas. Commissariat A Energie Atomique; FranciaFil: Sigman, Mariano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentin

The dermal skeleton of the jawless vertebrate Tremataspis mammilata (Osteostraci, stem-Gnathostomata)

Osteostracans are the closest jawless relatives of jawed vertebrates, informing the gradual assembly of the vertebrate mineralised skeleton. Conflicting interpretations of their dermal skeletal histology arise from failure to account for topological variation, obscuring their significance in elucidating vertebrate skeletal evolution. To resolve this, we characterize the cranial and trunk dermal skeleton of a single individual of Tremataspis mammilata (Osteostraci, Thyestiida) at submicron resolution using synchrotron tomography. Our results show that the architecture of the Tremataspis dermal skeleton is, for the most part, conserved over the skeleton and is broadly consistent with previous histological hypotheses based on 2-dimensional thin section study. We resolve debate over the homology of the basal layer, identifying it as osteogenic acellular isopedin rather than odontogenic elasmodine or metaplastic ossification of the stratum compactum of the dermis. We find topological variation between all dermal skeletal elements studied, and particularly between the cranial and postcranial dermal skeleton. This variation can be largely explained by reduction in differentiation due to geometric constraints imposed within smaller skeletal elements, such as scales. Our description of the dermal skeleton of Tremataspis mammilata provides a foundation for interpreting data from cursory topological samples of dermal skeletal diversity obtained in other osteostracans. This reveals general aspects of histological structure that must be primitive for osteostracans and, likely, ancestral jawed vertebrates. Finally, we draw the distinction between hypotheses and descriptions in palaeohistology

bacterial infection disrupts the circadian fluctuation of immune cells in wrinkle-lipped bats (Chaerephon plicatus)

Background Leukocyte concentrations follow a circadian pattern in mammals, with elevated values at times of potential contact with pathogens and parasites. We hypothesized that this pattern is disturbed after an immune challenge. Methods In Thailand, we captured wrinkle-lipped bats (Chaerephon plicatus), when they returned to their colony at dawn. We challenged half of the animals (experimental group) with bacterial lipopolysaccharides and treated the others only with the carrier liquid (control group). We then compared body mass changes and differences in circulating immune cell counts at 8 h post-treatment. Results In experimental animals, we observed an increase in total leukocyte and neutrophil numbers of 17% and 95%, respectively. In control animals, concentrations of leukocytes decreased by 44% and those of neutrophils remained constant. Experimental treatment had no effect on lymphocytes, yet changes in eosinophil numbers were explained by sex. Eosinophils decreased by 66% in females and by 62% in males. Basophils and monocytes were rarest among all observed cell types and analysis was either impossible because of low numbers or yielded no significant effects, respectively. Discussion Our findings show that a simulated bacterial infection triggered a neutrophil-associated immune response in wrinkle-lipped bats, indicating a disruption of the diurnal fluctuation of immune cells. Our study suggests that bats exhibit circadian rhythms in immune cell counts. The magnitude of these fluctuations may vary across species according to specific- specific infection risks associated with colony sizes or specific roosting habits

What lies between market and hierarchy? Insights from internalization theory and global value chain theory

In this paper, we suggest that internalization theory might be extended by incorporating complementary insights from GVC theory. More specifically, we argue that internalization theory can explain why lead firms might wish to externalize selected activities, but that it is largely silent on the mechanisms by which those lead firms might exercise control over the resultant externalized relationships with their GVC partners. We advance an explanation linking the choice of control mechanism to two factors: power asymmetries between the lead firms and their GVC partners, and the degree of codifiability of the information to be exchanged in the relationship

Prevalence and genetic diversity of Avipoxvirus in house sparrows in Spain

Avipoxvirus (APV) is a fairly common virus affecting birds that causes morbidity and mortality in wild and captive birds. We studied the prevalence of pox-like lesions and genetic diversity of APV in house sparrows (Passer domesticus) in natural, agricultural and urban areas in southern Spain in 2013 and 2014 and in central Spain for 8 months (2012±2013). Overall, 3.2% of 2,341 house sparrows visually examined in southern Spain had cutaneous lesions consistent with avian pox. A similar prevalence (3%) was found in 338 birds from central Spain. Prevalence was higher in hatch-year birds than in adults. We did not detect any clear spatial or temporal patterns of APV distribution. Molecular analyses of poxvirus-like lesions revealed that 63% of the samples were positive. Molecular and phylogenetic analyses of 29 DNA sequences from the fpv167 gene, detected two strains belonging to the canarypox clade (subclades B1 and B2) previously found in Spain. One of them appears predominant in Iberia and North Africa and shares 70% similarity to fowlpox and canarypox virus. This APV strain has been identified in a limited number of species in the Iberian Peninsula, Morocco and Hungary. The second one has a global distribution and has been found in numerous wild bird species around the world. To our knowledge, this represents the largest study of avian poxvirus disease in the broadly distributed house sparrow and strongly supports the findings that Avipox prevalence in this species in South and central Spain is moderate and the genetic diversity low.This study was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Project CGL2010-15734/BOS), the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Project CGL2013-41642-P/BOS) and the Innovation and Development Agency of Andalusia (Spain) (P11-RNM-7038). Grants were awarded to JMP (Juan de la Cierva- JCI-2012-11868) and MAJM (FPIBES-2011-047609), Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness; RAJW (CEI-PICATA2012), CEI Campus of International Excellence; MM (FPU12/0568), Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports. RAJW was supported by the Craaford Foundation (grant 20160971) during the writing of this publication. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Risk Factors for Hepatitis C Infection Among Sexually Transmitted Disease-Infected, Inner City Obstetric Patients

Objective: To test the hypothesis that our inner city obstetric patients who have been infected with sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) will have a higher prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection than the general population and to identify specific risk factors and high-risk groups. Methods: All patients in our prenatal clinic (July 1997–April 1999) who tested positive for one or more STDs were asked to return for hepatitis C antibody testing. Medical charts of all patients who returned for hepatitis C testing were reviewed. Results: A total of 106 patients with STDs were tested for hepatitis C. Positive screening tests for anti-hepatitis C antibody were found in 6.6% (7/106) of the patients (95% CI = 2.7–13.1%). This frequency is significantly higher than the hepatitis C prevalence (1.8%) in the general United States population (p = 0.006). Multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed only older age (p = 0.016) and positive HIV status (p = 0.023) to be significant predictors of hepatitis C infection. Conclusions: Inner city STD-infected obstetric patients are at high risk for hepatitis C infection compared with the general population. Increasing age and HIV-positive status are risk factors which are significantly associated with hepatitis C infection