A weekly, continually updated dataset of the probability of large wildfires across western US forests and woodlands

There is broad consensus that wildfire activity is likely to increase in western US forests and woodlands over the next century. Therefore, spatial predictions of the potential for large wildfires have immediate and growing relevance to near- and long-term research, planning, and management objectives. Fuels, climate, weather, and the landscape all exert controls on wildfire occurrence and spread, but the dynamics of these controls vary from daily to decadal timescales. Accurate spatial predictions of large wildfires should therefore strive to integrate across these variables and timescales. Here, we describe a high spatial resolution dataset (250&thinsp;m pixel) of the probability of large wildfires ( &gt; 405&thinsp;ha) across forests and woodlands in the contiguous western US, from 2005 to the present. The dataset is automatically updated on a weekly basis using Google Earth Engine and a continuous integration pipeline. Each image in the dataset is the output of a random forest machine-learning algorithm, trained on random samples of historic small and large wildfires and represents the predicted conditional probability of an individual pixel burning in a large fire, given an ignition or fire spread to that pixel. This novel workflow is able to integrate the near-term dynamics of fuels and weather into weekly predictions while also integrating longer-term dynamics of fuels, the climate, and the landscape. As a continually updated product, the dataset can provide operational fire managers with contemporary, on-the-ground information to closely monitor the changing potential for large wildfire occurrence and spread. It can also serve as a foundational dataset for longer-term planning and research, such as the strategic targeting of fuels management, fire-smart development at the wildland–urban interface, and the analysis of trends in wildfire potential over time. Weekly large fire probability GeoTiff products from 2005 to 2017 are archived on the Figshare online digital repository with the DOI https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5765967 (available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5765967.v1). Weekly GeoTiff products and the entire dataset from 2005 onwards are also continually uploaded to a Google Cloud Storage bucket at https://console.cloud.google.com/storage/wffr-preds/V1 (last access: 14 September 2018) and are available free of charge with a Google account. Continually updated products and the long-term archive are also available to registered Google Earth Engine (GEE) users as public GEE assets and can be accessed with the image collection ID users/mgray/wffr-preds within GEE.</p

An iterative and targeted sampling design informed by habitat suitability models for detecting focal plant species over extensive areas

Prioritizing areas for management of non-native invasive plants is critical, as invasive plants can negatively impact plant community structure. Extensive and multi-jurisdictional inventories are essential to prioritize actions aimed at mitigating the impact of invasions and changes in disturbance regimes. However, previous work devoted little effort to devising sampling methods sufficient to assess the scope of multi-jurisdictional invasion over extensive areas. Here we describe a large-scale sampling design that used species occurrence data, habitat suitability models, and iterative and targeted sampling efforts to sample five species and satisfy two key management objectives: 1) detecting non-native invasive plants across previously unsampled gradients, and 2) characterizing the distribution of non-native invasive plants at landscape to regional scales. Habitat suitability models of five species were based on occurrence records and predictor variables derived from topography, precipitation, and remotely sensed data. We stratified and established field sampling locations according to predicted habitat suitability and phenological, substrate, and logistical constraints. Across previously unvisited areas, we detected at least one of our focal species on 77% of plots. In turn, we used detections from 2011 to improve habitat suitability models and sampling efforts in 2012, as well as additional spatial constraints to increase detections. These modifications resulted in a 96% detection rate at plots. The range of habitat suitability values that identified highly and less suitable habitats and their environmental conditions corresponded to field detections with mixed levels of agreement. Our study demonstrated that an iterative and targeted sampling framework can address sampling bias, reduce time costs, and increase detections. Other studies can extend the sampling framework to develop methods in other ecosystems to provide detection data. The sampling methods implemented here provide a meaningful tool when understanding the potential distribution and habitat of species over multi-jurisdictional and extensive areas is needed for achieving management objectives

Preliminary comparison of magmatic manifestations, calc-alkaline affinity and stephanian-permian age, in the Iberian Chain

[Resumen] En este trabajo se estudian, de forma sintética y actualizada, las manifestaciones (hipovolcánicas y volcanoclásticas) calco-alcalinas que, con carácter epizonal, pluriepisódico y edad Stephaniense-Pérmico, afloran en la Cadena Ibérica. El estudio del magmatismo en la cuenca de Sauquillo de Alcázar (Soria) permite identificar la geometría y la modalidad de este magmatismo con mayor precisi6n, respecto a lo obtenido en los cuatro afloramientos volcano-clásticos seleccionados. Los resultados obtenidos facilitan realizar consideraciones sobre el estudio espacio-temporal de este magmatismo..[Abstract] A synthetic and actualized study of several magmatic calc-alkaline manifestations of Stephanian-Permian age, of the Iberian Chain, is proposed in this papero The Sauquillo de Alcázar (Soria) outcrop allows a more complete study (with drilling logs and a surface profile) giving improved spacetime information on the geometry and evolution of this magmatism. Four pyroclastic outcrops are integrated in this compariso

Ein neues, unkompliziertes Verfahren zur Bestimmung der Zusammensetzung binärer Flüssigkeitsgemische

Ein neues Verfahren zur Bestimmung der Zusammensetzung binärer Flüssigkeitsgemische mit Hilfe solvatochromer Farbstoffe wird beschrieben. Die Analyse erfolgt durch einfache UV/VIS-Absorptionsmessung und ist unter Verwendung einer Zwei-Parameter-Gleichung ein exakter Schnelltest

Cloning, expression and nuclear localization of human NPM3, a member of the nucleophosmin/nucleoplasmin family of nuclear chaperones

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest that the related proteins nucleoplasmin and nucleophosmin (also called B23, NO38 or numatrin) are nuclear chaperones that mediate the assembly of nucleosomes and ribosomes, respectively, and that these activities are accomplished through the binding of basic proteins via their acidic domains. Recently discovered and less well characterized members of this family of acidic phosphoproteins include mouse nucleophosmin/nucleoplasmin 3 (Npm3) and Xenopus NO29. Here we report the cloning and initial characterization of the human ortholog of Npm3. RESULTS: Human genomic and cDNA clones of NPM3 were isolated and sequenced. NPM3 lies 5.5 kb upstream of FGF8 and thus maps to chromosome 10q24-26. In addition to amino acid similarities, NPM3 shares many physical characteristics with the nucleophosmin/nucleoplasmin family, including an acidic domain, multiple potential phosphorylation sites and a putative nuclear localization signal. Comparative analyses of 14 members of this family from various metazoans suggest that Xenopus NO29 is a candidate ortholog of human and mouse NPM3, and they further group both proteins closer with the nucleoplasmins than with the nucleophosmins. Northern blot analysis revealed that NPM3 was strongly expressed in all 16 human tissues examined, with especially robust expression in pancreas and testis; lung displayed the lowest level of expression. An analysis of subcellular fractions of NIH3T3 cells expressing epitope-tagged NPM3 revealed that NPM3 protein was localized solely in the nucleus. CONCLUSIONS: Human NPM3 is an abundant and widely expressed protein with primarily nuclear localization. These biological activities, together with its physical relationship to the chaparones nucleoplasmin and nucleophosmin, are consistent with the proposed function of NPM3 as a molecular chaperone functioning in the nucleus

Nucleocytoplasmic transport: a thermodynamic mechanism

The nuclear pore supports molecular communication between cytoplasm and nucleus in eukaryotic cells. Selective transport of proteins is mediated by soluble receptors, whose regulation by the small GTPase Ran leads to cargo accumulation in, or depletion from the nucleus, i.e., nuclear import or nuclear export. We consider the operation of this transport system by a combined analytical and experimental approach. Provocative predictions of a simple model were tested using cell-free nuclei reconstituted in Xenopus egg extract, a system well suited to quantitative studies. We found that accumulation capacity is limited, so that introduction of one import cargo leads to egress of another. Clearly, the pore per se does not determine transport directionality. Moreover, different cargo reach a similar ratio of nuclear to cytoplasmic concentration in steady-state. The model shows that this ratio should in fact be independent of the receptor-cargo affinity, though kinetics may be strongly influenced. Numerical conservation of the system components highlights a conflict between the observations and the popular concept of transport cycles. We suggest that chemical partitioning provides a framework to understand the capacity to generate concentration gradients by equilibration of the receptor-cargo intermediary.Comment: in press at HFSP Journal, vol 3 16 text pages, 1 table, 4 figures, plus Supplementary Material include

Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison.

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0-2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs

Models predicting the growth response to growth hormone treatment in short children independent of GH status, birth size and gestational age

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mathematical models can be used to predict individual growth responses to growth hormone (GH) therapy. The aim of this study was to construct and validate high-precision models to predict the growth response to GH treatment of short children, independent of their GH status, birth size and gestational age. As the GH doses are included, these models can be used to individualize treatment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Growth data from 415 short prepubertal children were used to construct models for predicting the growth response during the first years of GH therapy. The performance of the models was validated with data from a separate cohort of 112 children using the same inclusion criteria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using only auxological data, the model had a standard error of the residuals (SD_res), of 0.23 SDS. The model was improved when endocrine data (GH_maxprofile, IGF-I and leptin) collected before starting GH treatment were included. Inclusion of these data resulted in a decrease of the SD_resto 0.15 SDS (corresponding to 1.1 cm in a 3-year-old child and 1.6 cm in a 7-year old). Validation of these models with a separate cohort, showed similar SD_resfor both types of models. Preterm children were not included in the Model group, but predictions for this group were within the expected range.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These prediction models can with high accuracy be used to identify short children who will benefit from GH treatment. They are clinically useful as they are constructed using data from short children with a broad range of GH secretory status, birth size and gestational age.</p