Policy Brief: Spatial Heterogeneity - Challenge and Opportunity for Net-Zero Germany

The energy system transformation in Germany is a challenge for society, economy and politics and has several impacts on multiple scales. This paper investigates the effects of the trajectories towards net zero emissions by 2050 through focusing on the spatial dimension of impacts, benefits, and losses for different stakeholders and technologies. Spatial heterogeneity in the energy transition means that regions enjoying benefits from decarbonization might diverge from regions experiencing losses, and that there are different geographical potentials and challenges. The question arising is one of the need for redistribution between benefits and losses, whilst ensuring that all stakeholders remain willing to act as frontrunners in the transformation of the energy system. Inclusion and participation in the process, together with a carefully targeted mixed set of regional energy policy, combining tax solutions and incentives for acceptance of required measures could facilitate a successful, efficient policy-supported energy transition

Actively forming Kuroko-type volcanic-hosted massive sulfide (VHMS) mineralization at Iheya North, Okinawa Trough, Japan

Modern seafloor hydrothermal systems provide important insights into the formation and discovery of ancient volcanic-hosted massive sulfide (VHMS) deposits. In 2010, Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 331 drilled five sites in the Iheya North hydrothermal field in the middle Okinawa Trough back-arc basin, Japan. Hydrothermal alteration and sulfide mineralization is hosted in a geologically complex, mixed sequence of coarse pumiceous volcaniclastic and fine hemipelagic sediments, overlying a dacitic to rhyolitic volcanic substrate. At site C0016, located adjacent to the foot of the actively venting North Big Chimney massive sulfide mound, massive sphalerite-(pyrite-chalcopyrite ± galena)-rich sulfides were intersected (to 30.2% Zn, 12.3% Pb, 2.68% Cu, 33.1 ppm Ag and 0.07 ppm Au) that strongly resemble the black ore of the Miocene-age Kuroko deposits of Japan. Sulfide mineralization shows clear evidence of formation through a combination of surface detrital and subsurface chemical processes, with at least some sphalerite precipitating into void space in the rock. Volcanic rocks beneath massive sulfides exhibit quartz-muscovite/illite and quartz-Mg-chlorite alteration reminiscent of VHMS proximal footwall alteration associated with Kuroko-type deposits, characterized by increasing MgO, Fe/Zn and Cu/Zn with depth. Recovered felsic footwall rocks are of FII to FIII affinity with well-developed negative Eu anomalies, consistent with VHMS-hosting felsic rocks in Phanerozoic ensialic arc/back-arc settings worldwide. Site C0013, ∼100 m east of North Big Chimney, represents a likely location of recent high temperature discharge, preserved as surficial coarse-grained sulfidic sediments (43.2% Zn, 4.4% Pb, 5.4% Cu, 42 ppm Ag and 0.02 ppm Au) containing high concentrations of As, Cd, Mo, Sb, and W. Near surface hydrothermal alteration is dominated by kaolinite and muscovite with locally abundant native sulfur, indicative of acidic hydrothermal fluids. Alteration grades to Mg-chlorite dominated assemblages at depths of >5 mbsf (metres below sea floor). Late coarse-grained anhydrite veining overprints earlier alteration and is interpreted to have precipitated from down welling seawater as hydrothermal activity waned. At site C0014, ∼350 m farther east, hydrothermal assemblages are characterized by illite/montmorillonite, with Mg-chlorite present at depths below ∼30 mbsf. Recovered lithologies from distal, recharge site C0017 are unaltered, with low MgO, FeO and base metal concentrations. Mineralization and alteration assemblages are consistent with the Iheya North system representing a modern analogue for Kuroko-type VHMS mineralization. Fluid flow is focussed laterally along pumiceous volcaniclastic strata (compartmentalized between impermeable hemipelagic sediments), and vertically along faults. The abundance of Fe-poor sphalerite and Mg-rich chlorite (clinochlore/penninite) is consistent with the lower Fe budget, temperature and higher oxidation state of felsic volcanic-hosted hydrothermal systems worldwide compared to Mid Ocean Ridge black smoker systems

Europe-wide expansion and eradication of multidrug-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae lineages: a genomic surveillance study

Centre for Genomic Pathogen Surveillance and the Euro-GASP study group: Sonja Pleininger, Alexander Indra, Irith De Baetselier, Wim Vanden Berghe, Blaženka Hunjak, Tatjana Nemeth Blažić, Panayiota Maikanti-Charalambous, Despo Pieridou, Hana Zákoucká, Helena Žemličková, Steen Hoffmann, Susan Cowan, Lasse Jessen Schwartz, Rita Peetso, Jevgenia Epstein, Jelena Viktorova, Ndeindo Ndeikoundam, Beatrice Bercot, Cécile Bébéar, Florence Lot, Susanne Buder, Klaus Jansen, Vivi Miriagou, Georgios Rigakos, Vasilios Raftopoulos, Eszter Balla, Mária Dudás, Lena Rós Ásmundsdóttir, Guðrún Sigmundsdóttir, Guðrún Svanborg Hauksdóttir, Thorolfur Gudnason, Aoife Colgan, Brendan Crowley, Sinéad Saab, Paola Stefanelli, Anna Carannante, Patrizia Parodi, Gatis Pakarna, Raina Nikiforova, Antra Bormane, Elina Dimina, Monique Perrin, Tamir Abdelrahman, Joël Mossong, Jean-Claude Schmit, Friedrich Mühlschlegel, Christopher Barbara, Francesca Mifsud, Alje Van Dam, Birgit Van Benthem, Maartje Visser, Ineke Linde, Hilde Kløvstad, Dominique Caugant, Beata Młynarczyk-Bonikowska, Jacinta Azevedo, Maria-José Borrego, Marina Lurdes Ramos Nascimento, Peter Pavlik, Irena Klavs, Andreja Murnik, Samo Jeverica, Tanja Kustec, Julio Vázquez Moreno, Asuncion Diaz, Raquel Abad, Inga Velicko, Magnus Unemo, Helen Fifer, Jill Shepherd, Lynsey PattersonBackground: Genomic surveillance using quality-assured whole-genome sequencing (WGS) together with epidemiological and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) data is essential to characterise the circulating Neisseria gonorrhoeae lineages and their association to patient groups (defined by demographic and epidemiological factors). In 2013, the European gonococcal population was characterised genomically for the first time. We describe the European gonococcal population in 2018 and identify emerging or vanishing lineages associated with AMR and epidemiological characteristics of patients, to elucidate recent changes in AMR and gonorrhoea epidemiology in Europe. Methods: We did WGS on 2375 gonococcal isolates from 2018 (mainly Sept 1-Nov 30) in 26 EU and EEA countries. Molecular typing and AMR determinants were extracted from quality-checked genomic data. Association analyses identified links between genomic lineages, AMR, and epidemiological data. Findings: Azithromycin-resistant N gonorrhoeae (8·0% [191/2375] in 2018) is rising in Europe due to the introduction or emergence and subsequent expansion of a novel N gonorrhoeae multi-antigen sequence typing (NG-MAST) genogroup, G12302 (132 [5·6%] of 2375; N gonorrhoeae sequence typing for antimicrobial resistance [NG-STAR] clonal complex [CC]168/63), carrying a mosaic mtrR promoter and mtrD sequence and found in 24 countries in 2018. CC63 was associated with pharyngeal infections in men who have sex with men. Susceptibility to ceftriaxone and cefixime is increasing, as the resistance-associated lineage, NG-MAST G1407 (51 [2·1%] of 2375), is progressively vanishing since 2009-10. Interpretation: Enhanced gonococcal AMR surveillance is imperative worldwide. WGS, linked to epidemiological and AMR data, is essential to elucidate the dynamics in gonorrhoea epidemiology and gonococcal populations as well as to predict AMR. When feasible, WGS should supplement the national and international AMR surveillance programmes to elucidate AMR changes over time. In the EU and EEA, increasing low-level azithromycin resistance could threaten the recommended ceftriaxone-azithromycin dual therapy, and an evidence-based clinical azithromycin resistance breakpoint is needed. Nevertheless, increasing ceftriaxone susceptibility, declining cefixime resistance, and absence of known resistance mutations for new treatments (zoliflodacin, gepotidacin) are promising.This study was supported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the Centre for Genomic Pathogen Surveillance, the Li Ka Shing Foundation (Big Data Institute, University of Oxford), the Wellcome Genome Campus, the Foundation for Medical Research at Örebro University Hospital, and grants from Wellcome (098051 and 099202). LSB was funded by Conselleria de Sanitat Universal i Salut Pública, Generalitat Valenciana (Plan GenT CDEI-06/20-B), Valencia, Spain, and Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (PID2020–120113RA-I00), Spain, at the time of analysing and writing this manuscript.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron is an immune escape variant with an altered cell entry pathway

Vaccines based on the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 are a cornerstone of the public health response to COVID-19. The emergence of hypermutated, increasingly transmissible variants of concern (VOCs) threaten this strategy. Omicron (B.1.1.529), the fifth VOC to be described, harbours multiple amino acid mutations in spike, half of which lie within the receptor-binding domain. Here we demonstrate substantial evasion of neutralization by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants in vitro using sera from individuals vaccinated with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273. These data were mirrored by a substantial reduction in real-world vaccine effectiveness that was partially restored by booster vaccination. The Omicron variants BA.1 and BA.2 did not induce cell syncytia in vitro and favoured a TMPRSS2-independent endosomal entry pathway, these phenotypes mapping to distinct regions of the spike protein. Impaired cell fusion was determined by the receptor-binding domain, while endosomal entry mapped to the S2 domain. Such marked changes in antigenicity and replicative biology may underlie the rapid global spread and altered pathogenicity of the Omicron variant

Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes. Methods: This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status. Findings: Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low. Interpretation: This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant. Funding: Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research

Investigation of hospital discharge cases and SARS-CoV-2 introduction into Lothian care homes

Background The first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Scotland resulted in high case numbers and mortality in care homes. In Lothian, over one-third of care homes reported an outbreak, while there was limited testing of hospital patients discharged to care homes. Aim To investigate patients discharged from hospitals as a source of SARS-CoV-2 introduction into care homes during the first epidemic wave. Methods A clinical review was performed for all patients discharges from hospitals to care homes from 1st March 2020 to 31st May 2020. Episodes were ruled out based on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test history, clinical assessment at discharge, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data and an infectious period of 14 days. Clinical samples were processed for WGS, and consensus genomes generated were used for analysis using Cluster Investigation and Virus Epidemiological Tool software. Patient timelines were obtained using electronic hospital records. Findings In total, 787 patients discharged from hospitals to care homes were identified. Of these, 776 (99%) were ruled out for subsequent introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes. However, for 10 episodes, the results were inconclusive as there was low genomic diversity in consensus genomes or no sequencing data were available. Only one discharge episode had a genomic, time and location link to positive cases during hospital admission, leading to 10 positive cases in their care home. Conclusion The majority of patients discharged from hospitals were ruled out for introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes, highlighting the importance of screening all new admissions when faced with a novel emerging virus and no available vaccine

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a UK university identifies dynamics of transmission

AbstractUnderstanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission in higher education settings is important to limit spread between students, and into at-risk populations. In this study, we sequenced 482 SARS-CoV-2 isolates from the University of Cambridge from 5 October to 6 December 2020. We perform a detailed phylogenetic comparison with 972 isolates from the surrounding community, complemented with epidemiological and contact tracing data, to determine transmission dynamics. We observe limited viral introductions into the university; the majority of student cases were linked to a single genetic cluster, likely following social gatherings at a venue outside the university. We identify considerable onward transmission associated with student accommodation and courses; this was effectively contained using local infection control measures and following a national lockdown. Transmission clusters were largely segregated within the university or the community. Our study highlights key determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and effective interventions in a higher education setting that will inform public health policy during pandemics.</jats:p

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility. Methods We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates. Findings From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. Interpretation The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant. Funding Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society

Genomic assessment of quarantine measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 importation and transmission

Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from international travel is a priority. We evaluated the effectiveness of travellers being required to quarantine for 14-days on return to England in Summer 2020. We identified 4,207 travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases and their contacts, and identified 827 associated SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Overall, quarantine was associated with a lower rate of contacts, and the impact of quarantine was greatest in the 16–20 age-group. 186 SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sufficiently unique to identify travel-related clusters. Fewer genomically-linked cases were observed for index cases who returned from countries with quarantine requirement compared to countries with no quarantine requirement. This difference was explained by fewer importation events per identified genome for these cases, as opposed to fewer onward contacts per case. Overall, our study demonstrates that a 14-day quarantine period reduces, but does not completely eliminate, the onward transmission of imported cases, mainly by dissuading travel to countries with a quarantine requirement