Do fiscal imbalances deteriorate sovereign debt ratings ?

We use sovereign debt rating estimations from Afonso, Gomes and Rother (2009, 2011) for Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s, to assess to what extent the recent fiscal imbalances are being reflected on the sovereign debt notations. With macro and fiscal data up to 2010, and macro and fiscal projections, we obtain the expected rating for several OECD countries. The answer to the title question is yes, but in a diverse way for each country. Our average model predictions point to a heterogeneous behaviour of rating agencies across countries

Excipient-mediated alteration in drug bioavailability in the rat depends on the sex of the animal

The pharmaceutical excipient, polyethylene glycol 400 (PEG 400), unexpectedly alters the bioavailability of the BCS class III drug ranitidine in a sex-dependent manner. As ranitidine is a substrate for the efflux transporter P-glycoprotein (P-gp), we hypothesized that the sex-related influence could be due to interactions between PEG 400 and P-gp. In this study, we tested this hypothesis by: i) measuring the influence of PEG 400 on the oral bioavailability of another P-gp substrate (ampicillin) and of a non-P-gp substrate (metformin); and ii) measuring the effect of PEG 400 on drug bioavailability in the presence of a P-gp inhibitor (cyclosporine A) in male and female rats. We found that PEG 400 significantly increased (p<0.05) the bioavailability of ampicillin (the P-gp substrate) in male rats, but not in female ones. In contrast, PEG 400 had no influence on the bioavailability of the non-P-gp substrate, metformin in male or female rats. Inhibition of P-gp by oral pre-treatment with cyclosporine A increased the bioavailability of the P-gp substrates (ampicillin and ranitidine) in males and females (p<0.05), and to a greater extent in males, but had no influence on the bioavailability of metformin in either male or female rats. These results prove the hypothesis that the sex-specific effect of PEG 400 on the bioavailability of certain drugs is due to the interaction of PEG 400 with the efflux transporter P-gp

A hot Jupiter transiting a mid-K dwarf found in the pre-OmegaCam Transit Survey

We describe the pre-OmegaTranS project, a deep survey for transiting extra-solar planets in the Carina region of the Galactic Disk. In 2006-2008 we observed a single dense stellar field with a very high cadence of ~2min using the ESO Wide Field Imager at the La Silla Observatory. Using the Astronomical Wide-field System for Europe and the Munich Difference Imaging Analysis pipeline, a module that has been developed for this project, we created the light curves of 16000 stars with more than 4000 data points which we searched for periodic transit signals using a box-fitting least-squares detection algorithm. All light curves are publicly available. In the course of the pre-OmegaTranS project we identified two planet candidates - POTS-1b and POTS-C2b - which we present in this work. With extensive follow-up observations we were able to confirm one of them, POTS-1b, a hot Jupiter transiting a mid-K dwarf. The planet has a mass of 2.31+-0.77M_Jup and a radius of 0.94+-0.04R_Jup and a period of P=3.16d. The host star POTS-1 has a radius of 0.59+-0.02R_Sun and a mass of 0.70+-0.05M_Sun. Due to its low apparent brightness of I=16.1mag the follow-up and confirmation of POTS-1b was particularly challenging and costly.Comment: 18 pages, 23 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Observaciones sobre la zonación de las algas en Punta del Hidalgo, Tenerife (Islas Canarias)

Se describe la zonación de las algas marinas en la costa de Punta del Hidalgo (Tenerife). Son analizadas las rocas, los charcos de mareas, los callaos y las oquedades. Los resultados obtenidos muestran claras diferencias con los esquemas de zonación de otras costas Norte de las Islas Canarias.The zonation of marine algae on the cost of Punta del Hidalgo (Tenerife) is described. The rocks, tide pools, little stones and cavities are studied. The zonation shown differences with respect to others North costs of the Canary Islands

Self-Lensing Models of the LMC

All of the proposed explanations for the microlensing events observed towards the LMC have difficulties. One of these proposed explanations, LMC self-lensing, which invokes ordinary LMC stars as the long sought-after lenses, has recently gained considerable popularity as a possible solution to the microlensing conundrum. In this paper, we carefully examine the set of LMC self-lensing models. In particular, we review the pertinent observations made of the LMC, and show how these observations place limits on such self-lensing models. We find that, given current observational constraints, no purely LMC disk models are capable of producing optical depths as large as that reported in the MACHO collaboration 2-year analysis. Besides pure disk, we also consider alternate geometries, and present a framework which encompasses the previous studies of LMC self-lensing. We discuss which model parameters need to be pushed in order for such models to succeed. For example, like previous workers, we find that an LMC halo geometry may be able to explain the observed events. However, since all known LMC tracer stellar populations exhibit disk-like kinematics, such models will have difficulty being reconciled with observations. For SMC self-lensing, we find predicted optical depths differing from previous results, but more than sufficient to explain all observed SMC microlensing. In contrast, for the LMC we find a self-lensing optical depth contribution between 0.47e-8 and 7.84e-8, with 2.44e-8 being the value for the set of LMC parameters most consistent with current observations.Comment: 20 pages, Latex, 14 figures, submitted to Ap

The Angstrom Project: a microlensing survey of the structure and composition of the bulge of the Andromeda galaxy

The Andromeda Galaxy Stellar Robotic Microlensing Project (The Angstrom Project) aims to use stellar microlensing events to trace the structure and composition of the inner regions of the Andromeda Galaxy (M31). We present microlensing rate and timescale predictions and spatial distributions for stellar and sub-stellar lens populations in combined disk and barred bulge models of M31. We show that at least half of the stellar microlenses in and around the bulge are expected to have characteristic durations between 1 and 10 days, rising to as much as 80% for brown-dwarf dominated mass functions. These short-duration events are mostly missed by current microlensing surveys that are looking for Macho candidates in the M31 dark matter halo. Our models predict that an intensive monitoring survey programme such as Angstrom, which will be able to detect events of durations upwards of a day, could detect around 30 events per season within ~5 arcminutes of the M31 centre, due to ordinary low-mass stars and remnants. This yield increases to more than 60 events for brown-dwarf dominated mass functions. The overall number of events and their average duration are sensitive diagnostics of the bulge mass, in particular the contribution of low-mass stars and brown dwarfs. The combination of an inclined disk, an offset bar-like bulge, and differences in the bulge and disk luminosity functions results in a four-way asymmetry in the number of events expected in each quadrant defined by the M31 disk axes. The asymmetry is sensitive to the bar prolongation, orientation and mass.Comment: 9 pages, submitted to MNRA

Probing the atmosphere of a solar-like star by galactic microlensing at high magnification

We report a measurement of limb darkening of a solar-like star in the very high magnification microlensing event MOA 2002-BLG-33. A 15 hour deviation from the light curve profile expected for a single lens was monitored intensively in V and I passbands by five telescopes spanning the globe. Our modelling of the light curve showed the lens to be a close binary system whose centre-of-mass passed almost directly in front of the source star. The source star was identified as an F8-G2 main sequence turn-off star. The measured stellar profiles agree with current stellar atmosphere theory to within ~4% in two passbands. The effective angular resolution of the measurements is <1 micro-arcsec. These are the first limb darkening measurements obtained by microlensing for a Solar-like star.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A Letters. 5 pages, 2 embedded colour ps figures plus 1 jpg figure. Version with all figures embedded available from: http://www.roe.ac.uk/~iab/moa33paper

Long-term retrospective assessment of a transmission hotspot for human alveolar echinococcosis in mid-west China

Background Human alveolar echinococcosis caused by infection with Echinococcus multilocularis is one of the most potentially pathogenic helminthic zoonoses. Transmission occurs involving wildlife cycles typically between fox and small mammal intermediate hosts. In the late 1980s/early 1990s a large focus of human AE was identified in poor upland agricultural communities in south Gansu Province, China. More detailed investigations in 1994–97 expanded community screening and identified key risk factors of dog ownership and landscape type around villages that could support susceptible rodent populations. A crash of the dog population (susceptible domestic definitive host) in the early 1990s appeared to stop transmission. Methodology/Findings We subsequently undertook follow-up eco-epidemiological studies based on human population screening and dog survey, in 2005/6 and in 2014/15. Our observations show a decrease in human AE prevalence, especially marked in the 11–30 year old age category. In 2015, although the dog population had recovered and in addition, forest protection and the reforestation of some areas may have favoured red fox (wild definitive host) population growth, there was no evidence of infection in owned dogs. Conclusions/Significance Those observations suggest that over decades socio-ecological changes resulted in a cascade of factors that exacerbated and then interrupted parasite emergence, with probable elimination of peri-domestic transmission of E. multilocularis in this area, despite the relative proximity of large active transmission foci on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. This study case exemplifies how anthropogenic land use and behavioural changes can modify emergence events and the transmission of endemic zoonotic parasite infections, and subsequently the importance of considering processes over the long-term in a systems approach in order to understand pathogen and disease distribution