Insolvency risk: characterisation and prediction

Treballs Finals de Grau de Matemàtiques, Facultat de Matemàtiques, Universitat de Barcelona, Any: 2016, Director: Josep Fortiana Gregori i Jordi Martí PidelaserraThe present document sets out to analyse the concept of insolvency risk in a firm and how it can be objectively measured. Our main objective is to predict whether a firm will face an insolvency situation, based on its most recent historical data stored in its accounts. In order to achieve it, the prediction of insolvency risk is studied reviewing some of the most relevant literature and explaining the accounting and financial implications which lie behind it, understanding the concept of insolvency from this perspective. In mathematical terms, this is an example of the so-called Problem of Classification (or Discriminant Analysis), which is usually approached using Statistics. More specifically, the chosen way to mathematically measure insolvency risk is through some of the most popular statistical prediction methods which deal with this problem. Some of these methods consist of the classical Altman’s Z Score, essentially equivalent to the Linear Discriminant, or more contemporary methods like Classification and Regression Trees or Neural Networks. These methods are applied on two samples. The first one is a sample of 40 Spanish firms selected under some certain criteria, gathering its data from SABI database (Sistema de Análisis de Balances Ibéricos). The second one is the sample that Professor E. I. Altman used in his famous 1968 article, where he introduced its aforementioned Z Score. A balanced approach between financial theory and statistical theory is used in order to effectively convey the message that we cannot totally rely on the statistical methods without taking into account the non-mathematical implications, for this is a complex issue involving many other areas such as finance, accounting or economics

Evidence for coordinated induction and repression of ecto-5'-nucleotidase (CD73) and the A2a adenosine receptor in a human B cell line

In the human B cell line P493-6 two mitogenic signals, the EpsteinBarr virus nuclear antigen 2 (EBNA2) and myc, can be independently regulated by means of an estrogen receptor fusion construct or an inducible expression vector, respectively. Shut off of EBNA2, either in the presence or absence of myc, leads to a significant increase in enzymatic activity and surface expression of ecto-5nucleotidase (CD73) as well as an increased adenosine receptor response in cyclic AMP formation. Shut off of myc expression has a small additional positive effect on CD73 activity. Among the four different subtypes of adenosine receptors, the A2a receptor exclusively is subject to regulation in this system, which is substantiated by pharmacologic data (specific agonists and inhibitors), as well as on the mRNA level. With upregulated CD73 and A2a, cells also respond to 5AMP with increased cyclic AMP formation. Turn on of EBNA2 has the reverse effect of repression of CD73 and A2a expression. The time course of both induction and repression of CD73 and A2a is rather slow

Modular acoustic platform to develop underwater bidirectional tags

Miniaturised acoustic tags are key to conducting spatial behaviour studies on marine organisms (e.g., Norwegian Lobster). Nonetheless, the current technology has its limitations, specifically in acquiring high-resolution 3D movements. Engineering and developing new bidirectional acoustic tags will help improve the tracking and monitoring capabilities of the tagged species. To accomplish this milestone, a testbed needs to be established to validate and iterate over every tag’s system. In this paper, the construction and capabilities of the first testbed’s keystone tool are presented, and results from laboratory and field tests are discussed.Peer Reviewe

The consumption of two new probiotic strains, Lactobacillus gasseri CECT 5714 and Lactobacillus coryniformis CECT 5711, boosts the immune system of healthy humans

Orally ingested probiotic bacteria are able to modulate the immune system. However, differences exist in the immunomodulatory effects of different probiotic strains. Moreover, different regulatory effects, which depend on the health status of the consumer, have been identified. This work describes a randomized, doubleblind, placebo-controlled human clinical trial to investigate the immune effects on healthy people of a fermented product containing two new probiotic strains, Lactobacillus gasseri CECT 5714 and Lactobacillus coryniformis CECT 5711, which was compared with another fermented product, a standard yogurt. Consumption of either the new product or yogurt increased the proportion of phagocytic cells, including monocytes and neutrophils, as well as their phagocytic activity. However, combination of the product containing the strains L. gasseri CECT 5714 and L. coryniformis CECT 5711 also induced an increase in the proportion of natural killer (NK) cells and in IgA concentrations. The effects were higher after two weeks of treatment than after 4 weeks, which suggests regulation of the immune system. In addition, the new product enhanced immunity in the participants to a greater extent than did the control standard yogurt. [Int Microbiol 2006; 9(1):47-52

The consumption of two new probiotic strains, Lactobacillus gasseri CECT 5714 and Lactobacillus coryniformis CECT 5711, boosts the immune system of healthy humans

Orally ingested probiotic bacteria are able to modulate the immune system. However, differences exist in the immunomodulatory effects of different probiotic strains. Moreover, different regulatory effects, which depend on the health status of the consumer, have been identified. This work describes a randomized, doubleblind, placebo-controlled human clinical trial to investigate the immune effects on healthy people of a fermented product containing two new probiotic strains, Lactobacillus gasseri CECT 5714 and Lactobacillus coryniformis CECT 5711, which was compared with another fermented product, a standard yogurt. Consumption of either the new product or yogurt increased the proportion of phagocytic cells, including monocytes and neutrophils, as well as their phagocytic activity. However, combination of the product containing the strains L. gasseri CECT 5714 and L. coryniformis CECT 5711 also induced an increase in the proportion of natural killer (NK) cells and in IgA concentrations. The effects were higher after two weeks of treatment than after 4 weeks, which suggests regulation of the immune system. In addition, the new product enhanced immunity in the participants to a greater extent than did the control standard yogurt.This work was supported by Puleva Biotech SA. Federico Lara-Villoslada and Saleta Sierra are recipients of a fellowship from the Fundación Universidad-Empresa, Universidad de Granada, Spain. Rocío Martín is recipient of a grant from the Comunidad de Madrid, Spain

Lipopolysaccharide-induced apoptosis of macrophages determines the up-regulation of concentrative nucleoside transporters Cnt1 and Cnt2 through tumor necrosis factor-alpha-dependent and -independent mechanisms

In murine bone marrow macrophages, lipopolysaccharide (LPS) induces apoptosis through the autocrine production of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), as demonstrated by the fact that macrophages from TNF-alpha receptor I knock-out mice did not undergo early apoptosis. In these conditions LPS up-regulated the two concentrative high affinity nucleoside transporters here shown to be expressed in murine bone marrow macrophages, concentrative nucleoside transporter (CNT) 1 and 2, in a rapid manner that is nevertheless consistent with the de novo synthesis of carrier proteins. This effect was not dependent on the presence of macrophage colony-stimulating factor, although LPS blocked the macrophage colony-stimulating factor-mediated up-regulation of the equilibrative nucleoside transport system es. TNF-alpha mimicked the regulatory response of nucleoside transporters triggered by LPS, but macrophages isolated from TNF-alpha receptor I knock-out mice similarly up-regulated nucleoside transport after LPS treatment. Although NO is produced by macrophages after LPS treatment, NO is not involved in these regulatory responses because LPS up-regulated CNT1 and CNT2 transport activity and expression in macrophages from inducible nitric oxide synthase and cationic amino acid transporter (CAT) 2 knock-out mice, both of which lack inducible nitric oxide synthesis. These data indicate that the early proapoptotic responses of macrophages, involving the up-regulation of CNT transporters, follow redundant regulatory pathways in which TNF-alpha-dependent- and -independent mechanisms are involved. These observations also support a role for CNT transporters in determining extracellular nucleoside availability and modulating macrophage apoptosis