A panel model for predicting the diversity of internal temperatures from English dwellings

Using panel methods, a model for predicting daily mean internal temperature demand across a heterogeneous domestic building stock is developed. The model offers an important link that connects building stock models to human behaviour. It represents the first time a panel model has been used to estimate the dynamics of internal temperature demand from the natural daily fluctuations of external temperature combined with important behavioural, socio-demographic and building efficiency variables. The model is able to predict internal temperatures across a heterogeneous building stock to within ~0.71°C at 95% confidence and explain 45% of the variance of internal temperature between dwellings. The model confirms hypothesis from sociology and psychology that habitual behaviours are important drivers of home energy consumption. In addition, the model offers the possibility to quantify take-back (direct rebound effect) owing to increased internal temperatures from the installation of energy efficiency measures. The presence of thermostats or thermostatic radiator valves (TRV) are shown to reduce average internal temperatures, however, the use of an automatic timer is statistically insignificant. The number of occupants, household income and occupant age are all important factors that explain a proportion of internal temperature demand. Households with children or retired occupants are shown to have higher average internal temperatures than households who do not. As expected, building typology, building age, roof insulation thickness, wall U-value and the proportion of double glazing all have positive and statistically significant effects on daily mean internal temperature. In summary, the model can be used as a tool to predict internal temperatures or for making statistical inferences. However, its primary contribution offers the ability to calibrate existing building stock models to account for behaviour and socio-demographic effects making it possible to back-out more accurate predictions of domestic energy demand

Interactions of the Gasotransmitters Contribute to Microvascular Tone (Dys)regulation in the Preterm Neonate

Background & Aims Hydrogen sulphide (H2S), nitric oxide (NO), and carbon monoxide (CO) are involved in transitional microvascular tone dysregulation in the preterm infant; however there is conflicting evidence on the interaction of these gasotransmitters, and their overall contribution to the microcirculation in newborns is not known. The aim of this study was to measure the levels of all 3 gasotransmitters, characterise their interrelationships and elucidate their combined effects on microvascular blood flow. Methods 90 preterm neonates were studied at 24h postnatal age. Microvascular studies were performed by laser Doppler. Arterial COHb levels (a measure of CO) were determined through co-oximetry. NO was measured as nitrate and nitrite in urine. H2S was measured as thiosulphate by liquid chromatography. Relationships between levels of the gasotransmitters and microvascular blood flow were assessed through partial correlation controlling for the influence of gestational age. Structural equation modelling was used to examine the combination of these effects on microvascular blood flow and derive a theoretical model of their interactions. Results No relationship was observed between NO and CO (p = 0.18, r = 0.18). A positive relationship between NO and H2S (p = 0.008, r = 0.28) and an inverse relationship between CO and H2S (p = 0.01, r = -0.33) exists. Structural equation modelling was used to examine the combination of these effects on microvascular blood flow. The model with the best fit is presented. Conclusions The relationships between NO and H2S, and CO and H2S may be of importance in the preterm newborn, particularly as NO levels in males are associated with higher H2S levels and higher microvascular blood flow and CO in females appears to convey protection against vascular dysregulation. Here we present a theoretical model of these interactions and their overall effects on microvascular flow in the preterm newborn, upon which future mechanistic studies may be based.The authors would like to acknowledge the parents of the neonates enrolled in the 2CANS study for their participation, the staff of the Kaleidoscope Neonatal Intensive Care Unit at the John Hunter Children’s Hospital, and Kimberly-Clark Australia for providing the diapers used in this stud

Investigating the association between early years foundation stage profile scores and subsequent diagnosis of an autism spectrum disorder: a retrospective study of linked healthcare and education data

Objective: We set out to test whether the early years foundation stage profile (EYFSP) score derived from 17 items assessed by teachers at the end of reception school year had any association with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosis in subsequent years. This study tested the feasibility of successfully linking education and health data. Design: A retrospective data linkage study. Setting and participants: The Born in Bradford longitudinal cohort of 13, 857 children. Outcome measures: We linked the EYFSP score at the end of reception year with subsequent diagnosis of an ASD, using all ASD general practitioner Read codes. We used the total EYFSP score and a subscore consisting of five key items in the EYFSP, prospectively identified using a panel of early years autism experts. Results: This study demonstrated the feasibility of linking education and health data using ASDs as an exemplar. A total of 8,935 children had linked primary care and education data with 20.7% scoring <25 on the total EYFSP and 15.2% scoring <10 on a EYFSP subscore proposed by an expert panel prospectively. The rate of diagnosis of ASDs at follow-up was just under 1% (84 children), children scoring <25 on the total EYFSP had a 4.1% chance of ASD compared with 0.15% of the remaining children. Using the prospectively designed subscore, this difference was greater (6.4% and 0.12%, respectively). Conclusions: We demonstrate the feasibility of linking education and health data. Performance on teacher ratings taken universally in school reception class can flag children at risk of ASDs. Further research is warranted to explore the utility of EYFSP as an initial screening tool for ASD in early school years

Water warming garment versus forced air warming system in prevention of intraoperative hypothermia during liver transplantation: a randomized controlled trial [ISRCTN32154832]

BACKGROUND: The authors compared two strategies for the maintenance of intraoperative normothermia during orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT): the routine forced-air warming system and the newly developed, whole body water garment. METHODS: In this prospective, randomized and open-labelled study, 24 adult patients were enrolled in one of two intraoperative temperature management groups during OLT. The water-garment group (N = 12) received warming with a body temperature (esophageal) set point of 36.8°C. The forced air-warmer group (N = 12) received routine warming therapy using upper- and lower-body forced-air warming system. Body core temperature (primary outcome) was recorded intraoperatively and during the two hours after surgery in both groups. RESULTS: The mean core temperatures during incision, one hour after incision and during the skin closing were significantly higher (p < 0.05, t test with Bonferroni corrections for the individual tests) in the water warmer group compared to the control group (36.7 ± 0.1, 36.7 ± 0.2, 36.8 ± 0.1 vs 36.1 ± 0.4, 36.1 ± 0.4, 36.07 ± 0.4°C, respectively). Moreover, significantly higher core temperatures were observed in the water warmer group than in the control group during the placement of cold liver allograft (36.75 ± 0.17 vs 36.09 ± 0.38°C, respectively) and during the allograft reperfusion period (36.3 ± 0.26 vs 35.52 ± 0.42°C, respectively). In addition, the core temperatures immediately after admission to the SICU (36.75 ± 0.13 vs 36.22 ± 0.3°C, respectively) and at one hr (36.95 ± 0.13 vs 36.46 ± 0.2°C, respectively) were significantly higher in the water warmer group, compared to the control group, whereas the core temperature did not differ significantly afte two hours in ICU in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: The investigated water warming system results in better maintenance of intraoperative normothermia than routine air forced warming applied to upper- and lower body

Application of hot melt extrusion for improving bioavailability of artemisinin a thermolabile drug

Hot melt extrusion has been used to produce a solid dispersion of the thermolabile drug artemisinin. Formulation and process conditions were optimized prior to evaluation of dissolution and biopharmaceutical performance. Soluplus®, a low Tg amphiphilic polymer especially designed for solid dispersions enabled melt extrusion at 110 °C although some drug-polymer incompatibility was observed. Addition of 5% citric acid as a pH modifier was found to suppress the degradation. The area under plasma concentration time curve (AUC0–24h) and peak plasma concentration (Cmax) were four times higher for the modified solid dispersion compared to that of pure artemisinin

Parents, children and the porous boundaries of the sexual family in law and popular culture

This article focuses on a perceived ideological overlap between popular cultural and judicial treatments of sex and conjugality that contributes to a discursive construction of parenthood and parenting. The author perceives that in both legal and popular cultural texts, there is a sense in which notions of ‘natural’ childhood are discursively constituted as being put at risk by those who reproduce outside of dominant sexual norms, and that signs of normative sexuality (typically in the form of heterosexual coupling) may be treated as a sign of safety. These ideas are rooted in ancient associations between fertility, sexuality and femininity that can also be traced in the historical development of the English language. With the help of commentators such as Martha Fineman, the article situates parents and children within a discourse of family which prioritises conjugality, with consequences for the ways in which the internal and external boundaries of families are delineated

Temporal trends of time to antiretroviral treatment initiation, interruption and modification: Examination of patients diagnosed with advanced HIV in Australia

INTRODUCTION: HIV prevention strategies are moving towards reducing plasma HIV RNA viral load in all HIV-positive persons, including those undiagnosed, treatment naïve, on or off antiretroviral therapy. A proxy population for those undiagnosed are patients that present late to care with advanced HIV. The objectives of this analysis are to examine factors associated with patients presenting with advanced HIV, and establish rates of treatment interruption and modification after initiating ART. METHODS: We deterministically linked records from the Australian HIV Observational Database to the Australian National HIV Registry to obtain information related to HIV diagnosis. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with advanced HIV diagnosis. We used survival methods to evaluate rates of ART initiation by diagnosis CD4 count strata and by calendar year of HIV diagnosis. Cox models were used to determine hazard of first ART treatment interruption (duration >30 days) and time to first major ART modification. RESULTS: Factors associated (p<0.05) with increased odds of advanced HIV diagnosis were sex, older age, heterosexual mode of HIV exposure, born overseas and rural-regional care setting. Earlier initiation of ART occurred at higher rates in later periods (2007-2012) in all diagnosis CD4 count groups. We found an 83% (69, 91%) reduction in the hazard of first treatment interruption comparing 2007-2012 versus 1996-2001 (p<0.001), and no difference in ART modification for patients diagnosed with advanced HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Recent HIV diagnoses are initiating therapy earlier in all diagnosis CD4 cell count groups, potentially lowering community viral load compared to earlier time periods. We found a marked reduction in the hazard of first treatment interruption, and found no difference in rates of major modification to ART by HIV presentation status in recent periods

Starting School: a large-scale start of school assessment within the ‘Born in Bradford’ longitudinal cohort [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations]

The Born in Bradford (BiB) cohort of 13,776 children born between 2007-2011 and their parents provides a rich data resource for researchers exploring protective and risk factors influencing long-term developmental and health outcomes. Educational attainment is a critical factor related to later health. Literacy and communication, fine motor skills and social and emotional health are key ‘early’ predictors of educational attainment and can be used to identify children in need of additional support. We describe our BiB ‘Starting School’ data collection protocol which assessed literacy and communication, fine motor skills and social and emotional health on 3,444 BiB children aged 4-5 years old. These measures supplement the existing dataset, and complement the routine educational, health and social care data available for the cohort

The development of search filters for adverse effects of medical devices in MEDLINE and Embase

Background: Objectively derived search filters for adverse drug effects and complications in surgery have been developed but not for medical device adverse effects. Objective: To develop and validate search filters to retrieve evidence on medical device adverse effects from ovid medline and embase. Methods: We identified systematic reviews from Epistemonikos and the Health Technology Assessment (hta) database. Included studies within these reviews that reported on medical device adverse effects were randomly divided into three test sets and one validation set of records. Using word frequency analysis from one test set, we constructed a sensitivity maximising search strategy. This strategy was refined using two other test sets, then validated. Results: From 186 systematic reviews which met our inclusion criteria, 1984 unique included studies were available from medline and 1986 from embase. Generic adverse effects searches in medline and embase achieved 84% and 83% sensitivity. Recall was improved to over 90%, however, when specific adverse effects terms were added. Conclusion: We have derived and validated novel search filters that retrieve over 80% of records with medical device adverse effects data in medline and embase. The addition of specific adverse effects terms is required to achieve higher levels of sensitivity

Recruitment of patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) for research.

Databases of electronic health records (EHR) are not only a valuable source of data for health research but have also recently been used as a medium through which potential study participants can be screened, located and approached to take part in research. The aim was to assess whether it is feasible and practical to screen, locate and approach patients to take part in research through the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). This is a cohort study in primary care. The CPRD anonymised EHR database was searched to screen patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) to take part in a research study. The potential participants were contacted via their General Practitioner (GP) who confirmed their eligibility. Eighty two practices across Greater London were invited to the study. Twenty-six (31.7%) practices consented to participate resulting in a pre-screened list of 988 patients. Of these, 632 (63.7%) were confirmed as eligible following the GP review. Two hundred twenty seven (36%) response forms were received by the study team; 79 (34.8%) responded 'yes' (i.e., they wanted to be contacted by the research assistant for more information and to talk about enrolling in the study), and 148 (65.2%) declined participation. This study has shown that it is possible to use EHR databases such as CPRD to screen, locate and recruit participants for research. This method provides access to a cohort of patients while minimising input needed by GPs and allows researchers to examine healthcare usage and disease burden in more detail and in real-life settings