The theory and practice of free trade

David M. Gould, Roy J. Ruffin, and Graeme L. Woodbridge argue that free trade is supported both by economic principles and evidence from countries that have followed open market policies. The authors demonstrate that the countries whose markets are the most open have higher real output and economic growth. ; The authors show that many arguments for protection obscure the benefits countries derive from international trade. High-wage countries not only can compete with low-wage countries, they dominate the world economic stage. Trade deficits or surpluses are not inherently bad or good, but rather reflect a country's consumption and investment decisions over time. Moreover, there is no evidence to suggest that imports cause systematic unemployment or that exports create systematic employment. The authors explain why industrial policies and protection designed to promote particular industries usually backfire; trade policies usually reflect the lobbying efforts of the most vocal and powerful self-interest groups.Free trade

Tracking the hydro-climatic signal from lake to sediment: a field study from central Turkey

Palaeo-hydrological interpretations of lake sediment proxies can benefit from a robust understanding of the modern lake environment. In this study, we use Nar Gölü, a non-outlet, monomictic maar lake in central Turkey, as a field site for a natural experiment using observations and measurements over a 17-year monitoring period (1997–2014). We compare lake water and sediment trap data to isotopic, chemical and biotic proxies preserved in its varved sediments. Nar Gölü underwent a 3 m lake-level fall between 2000 and 2010. δ18Olakewater is correlated with this lake-level fall, responding to the change in water balance. Endogenic carbonate is shown to precipitate in isotopic equilibrium with lake water and there is a strong relationship between δ18Olakewater and δ18Ocarbonate, which suggests the water balance signal is accurately recorded in the sediment isotope record. Over the same period, sedimentary diatom assemblages also responded, and conductivity inferred from diatoms showed a rise. Shifts in carbonate mineralogy and elemental chemistry in the sediment record through this decade were also recorded. Intra-annual changes in δ18Olakewater and lake water chemistry are used to demonstrate the seasonal variability of the system and the influence this may have on the interpretation of δ18Ocarbonate. We use these relationships to help interpret the sedimentary record of changing lake hydrology over the last 1725 years. Nar Gölü has provided an opportunity to test critically the chain of connection from present to past, and its sedimentary record offers an archive of decadal- to centennial-scale hydro-climatic chang

A tale of two lakes: a multi-proxy comparison of Lateglacial and Holocene environmental change in Cappadocia, Turkey

Individual palaeoenvironmental records represent a combination of regional-scale (e.g. climatic) and site-specific local factors. Here we compare multiple climate proxies from two nearby maar lake records, assuming that common signals are due to regional-scale forcing. A new core sequence from Nar Lake in Turkey is dated by varves and U–Th to the last 13.8 ka. Markedly dry periods during the Lateglacial stadial, at 4.3–3.7 and at 3.2–2.6 ka BP, are associated with peaks in Mg/dolomite, positive δ18O, elevated diatom-inferred electrical conductivity, an absence of laminated sediments and low Quercus/chenopod ratios. Wet phases occurred during the early–mid Holocene and 1.5–0.6 ka BP, characterized by negative δ18O, calcite precipitation, high Ca/Sr ratios, a high percentage of planktonic diatoms, laminated sediments and high Quercus/chenopod ratios. Comparison with the record from nearby Eski Acıgöl shows good overall correspondence for many proxies, especially for δ18O. Differences are related to basin infilling and lake ontogeny at Eski Acıgöl, which consequently fails to register climatic changes during the last 2 ka, and to increased flux of lithogenic elements into Nar Lake during the last 2.6 ka, not primarily climatic in origin. In attempting to separate a regional signal from site-specific ‘noise’, two lakes may therefore be better than one

Are models of catalytic removal of O_3 by HO_x accurate? Constraints from in situ measurements of the OH to HO_2 ratio

Measurements of the ratio OH/HO_2, NO, O_3, ClO, and BrO were obtained at altitudes from 15–20 km and latitudes from 15–60°N. A method is presented for interpreting these simultaneous in situ observations that constrains the rates of chemical transformations that 1) are responsible for over half the ozone removal rate in the lower stratosphere via reactions of HO_2 and 2) control the abundance of HO_2 through coupling to nitrogen and halogen radicals. The results show our understanding of the chemical reactions controlling the partitioning of OH and HO_2 is complete and accurate and that the potential effects of “missing chemistry” are strictly constrained in the region of the atmosphere encompassed by the observations. The analysis demonstrates that the sensitivity of the ratio OH/HO_2 to changes in NO is described to within 12% by current models. This reduces by more than a factor of 2 the effect of uncertainty in the coupling of hydrogen and nitrogen radicals on the analysis of the potential effects of perturbations to odd nitrogen in the lower stratosphere

Europe's lost forests: a pollen-based synthesis for the last 11,000 years

8000 years ago, prior to Neolithic agriculture, Europe was mostly a wooded continent. Since then, its forest cover has been progressively fragmented, so that today it covers less than half of Europe’s land area, in many cases having been cleared to make way for fields and pasture-land. Establishing the origin of Europe’s current, more open land-cover mosaic requires a long-term perspective, for which pollen analysis offers a key tool. In this study we utilise and compare three numerical approaches to transforming pollen data into past forest cover, drawing on >1000 14C-dated site records. All reconstructions highlight the different histories of the mixed temperate and the northern boreal forests, with the former declining progressively since ~6000 years ago, linked to forest clearance for agriculture in later prehistory (especially in northwest Europe) and early historic times (e.g. in north central Europe). In contrast, extensive human impact on the needle-leaf forests of northern Europe only becomes detectable in the last two millennia and has left a larger area of forest in place. Forest loss has been a dominant feature of Europe’s landscape ecology in the second half of the current interglacial, with consequences for carbon cycling, ecosystem functioning and biodiversity

The response of ClO radical concentrations to variations in NO_2 radical concentrations in the lower stratosphere

The response of ClO concentrations to changes in NO_2 concentrations has been inferred from simultaneous observations of [ClO], [NO], [NO_2] and [O_3] in the mid-latitude lower stratosphere. This analysis demonstrates that [ClO] is inversely correlated with [NO_2], consistent with formation and photolysis of [ClONO_2]. A factor of ten range in the concentration of NO_2 was sampled (0.1 to 1×10^9 mol/cm^3), with a comparable range in the ratio of [ClO] to total available inorganic chlorine (1% ≤ [ClO]/[Cl_y] ≤ 5%). This analysis leads to an estimate of [ClONO_2]/[Cl_y] = 0.12 (×/÷2), in the mid-latitude, lower-stratospheric air masses sampled

Observations of large reductions in the NO/NO_y ratio near the mid-latitude tropopause and the role of heterogeneous chemistry

During the 1993 NASA Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols and Dynamics Expedition (SPADE), anomalously low nitric oxide (NO) was found in a distinct sunlit layer located above the mid-latitude tropopause. The presence of a significant amount of reactive nitrogen (NO_y) in the layer implies the systematic removal of NO, which is without precedent in stratospheric in situ observations. Large increases in measured chlorine monoxide (ClO) and the hydroperoxyl radical (HO_2) also were observed in the layer. Heterogeneous reaction rate constants of chlorine nitrate (ClONO_2) with hydrogen chloride (HCl) and H_2O to form nitric acid (HNO_3) on sulfate aerosol are enhanced in the NO removal layer by local increases in H_2O and aerosol surface area. The associated conversion of NO_x (= NO + NO_2) to HNO_3 is the most likely cause of the observed low NO and NO_x/NO_y values and high ClO values

Migration Patterns, Use of Stopover Areas, and Austral Summer Movements of Swainson\u27s Hawks

From 1995 to 1998, we tracked movements of adult Swainson’s Hawks (Buteo swainsoni), using satellite telemetry to characterize migration, important stopover areas, and movements in the austral summer. We tagged 46 hawks from July to September on their nesting grounds in seven U.S. states and two Canadian provinces. Swainson’s Hawks followed three basic routes south on a broad front, converged along the east coast of central Mexico, and followed a concentrated corridor to a communal area in central Argentina for the austral summer. North of 20°N, southward and northward tracks differed little for individuals from east of the continental divide but differed greatly (up to 1700 km) for individuals from west of the continental divide. Hawks left the breeding grounds mid-August to mid-October; departure dates did not differ by location, year, or sex. Southbound migration lasted 42 to 98 days, northbound migration 51 to 82 days. Southbound, 36% of the Swainson’s Hawks departed the nesting grounds nearly 3 weeks earlier than the other radio-marked hawks and made stopovers 9.0–26.0 days long in seven separate areas, mainly in the southern Great Plains, southern Arizona and New Mexico, and northcentral Mexico. The birds stayed in their nonbreeding range for 76 to 128 days. All used a core area in central Argentina within 23% of the 738 800-km2 austral summer range, where they frequently moved long distances (up to 1600 km). Conservation of Swainson’s Hawks must be an international effort that considers habitats used during nesting and non-nesting seasons, including migration stopovers

Partitioning of the reactive nitrogen reservoir in the lower sratosphere of the southern hemisphere: Observations and modeling

Measurements of nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and total reactive nitrogen (NOy = NO + NO2 + NO3 + HNO3 + ClONO2 + 2N2O5 + ...) were made during austral fall, winter, and spring 1994 as part of the NASA Airborne Southern Hemisphere Ozone Experiment/Measurements for Assessing the Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft mission. Comparisons between measured NO2 values and those calculated using a steady state (SS) approximation are presented for flights at mid and high latitudes. The SS results agree with the measurements to within 8%, suggesting that the kinetic rate coefficients and calculated NO2 photolysis rate used in the SS approximation are reasonably accurate for conditions in the lower stratosphere. However, NO2 values observed in the Concorde exhaust plume were significantly less than SS values. Calculated NO2 photolysis rates showed good agreement with values inferred from solar flux measurements, indicating a strong self-consistency in our understanding of UV radiation transmission in the lower stratosphere. Model comparisons using a full diurnal, photochemical steady state model also show good agreement with the NO and NO2 measurements, suggesting that the reactions affecting the partitioning of the NO2 reservoir are well understood in the lower stratosphere