The pricing of corporate debt and related issues

The purpose of this thesis is to study the pricing and credit risk of corporate debt using structural and reduced-form approaches. We discuss the theoretical aspects of three important topics in pricing risky debt: (i) the impact of stochastic interest rates, and hence the interaction between market risk and credit risk; (ii) the impact of diversifiable and non-diversifiable jump risks on pricing and default mechanisms, and (iii) a reduced-form model with a firm’s fundamental variables. To investigate the relationships between market risk and credit risk, we develop a flexible binomial framework for valuing credit-sensitive instruments by generalizing the valuation model of Geske [1977]. We price a defaultable coupon bond when interest rates and a firm’s asset value are stochastic. Our results confirm our belief that firms with low credit quality should have more market risk than firms with high credit quality. We discuss the implications of the results for capital adequacy. In addition to providing conceptual insights into the default behaviour, the flexibility of our method allows for efficient pricing of other credit-sensitive instruments. To improve the short-end properties of credit spreads, we model a firm’s asset value as a jump-diffusion process. We show several significant implications of the jump process for the term structure of credit spreads. We also discuss the effects of the disversifiability of jumps on corporate debt pricing. We prove that without considering systematic jump risk, theoretical models tend to underestimate credit spreads. Another contribution of this thesis is the incorporation of taxes into our model to show that taxes do have significant effects on levels of credit spread. Interestingly, the model implies that a decrease in the federal tax rate may precipitate an earlier default of low-grade bonds. Finally, we investigate a reduced-form model of corporate debt, by taking into account stochastic interest rates, a firm’s equity values, and hazard rates of default. Through a moving average of a log-transformation of equity prices, we introduce structural characteristics of the firm into the model. This is an innovation

Presence of tumour capsule on contrast-enhanced CT is associated with improved outcomes of stereotactic body radiation therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

Purpose Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) is a novel local therapy for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While effective, there is currently noreliable radiological marker to guide patient selection. In this study, we investigated the prognostic value of capsule appearanceon contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) for patients undergoing SBRT. Materials and Methods Between 2006 and 2017, 156 consecutive patients with Child-Pugh score class A/B and HCC ≥5cm that underwent SBRT were retrospectively analysed. Baseline triple-phase CTs of the abdomen were reviewed for the presence of capsule appearances and correlated with objective response rate (ORR), overall survival (OS), and pattern of treatment failure. Results Capsule appearance on CT was present in 83 (53.2%) patients.It was associated with improved ORR by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST) (60.2% vs 24.7%; p<0.001) andModified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours(mRECIST) (ORR 78.3% vs 34.2%; p<0.001). The presence of a capsule was also associated with superior 2-year local control (89.1% vs. 51.4%; p<0.001) and 2-year OS (34.1% vs. 14.8%, p<0.01). Hepatic out-field failure was the dominant mode of progression, which was less common in patients with intact capsule (54.2% vs. 60.3%, p=0.01). Conclusion Capsule appearance on CT could potentially be a non-invasive prognostic marker for selecting HCC patients undergoing SBRT. Larger cohort is warranted to validate our findings

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

A Genome-Wide Association Study of Diabetic Kidney Disease in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes

dentification of sequence variants robustly associated with predisposition to diabetic kidney disease (DKD) has the potential to provide insights into the pathophysiological mechanisms responsible. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of DKD in type 2 diabetes (T2D) using eight complementary dichotomous and quantitative DKD phenotypes: the principal dichotomous analysis involved 5,717 T2D subjects, 3,345 with DKD. Promising association signals were evaluated in up to 26,827 subjects with T2D (12,710 with DKD). A combined T1D+T2D GWAS was performed using complementary data available for subjects with T1D, which, with replication samples, involved up to 40,340 subjects with diabetes (18,582 with DKD). Analysis of specific DKD phenotypes identified a novel signal near GABRR1 (rs9942471, P = 4.5 x 10(-8)) associated with microalbuminuria in European T2D case subjects. However, no replication of this signal was observed in Asian subjects with T2D or in the equivalent T1D analysis. There was only limited support, in this substantially enlarged analysis, for association at previously reported DKD signals, except for those at UMOD and PRKAG2, both associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate. We conclude that, despite challenges in addressing phenotypic heterogeneity, access to increased sample sizes will continue to provide more robust inference regarding risk variant discovery for DKD.Peer reviewe

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P &lt; 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely