Evaluation of trends in derived snowfall and rainfall across Eurasia and linkages with discharge to the Arctic Ocean

To more fully understand the role of precipitation in observed increases in freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean, data from a new archive of bias-adjusted precipitation records for the former USSR (TD9813), along with the CRU and Willmott-Matsuura data sets, were examined for the period 1936–1999. Across the six largest Eurasian river basins, snowfall derived from TD9813 exhibits a strongly significant increase until the late 1950s and a moderately significant decrease thereafter. A strongly significant decline in derived rainfall is also noted. Spatially, snowfall increases are found primarily across north-central Eurasia, an area where the rainfall decreases are most prominent. Although no significant change is determined in Eurasian-basin snowfall over the entire 64 year period, we note that interpolation from early, uneven station networks causes an overestimation of spatial precipitation, and that the local snowfall trends determined from gridded TD9813 data are likely underestimated. Yet, numerous uncertainties in historical Arctic climate data and the sparse, irregular nature of Arctic station networks preclude a confident assessment of precipitation-discharge linkages during the period of reported discharge trends

Statistical analysis plan for the ‘Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke’ (ENOS) trial

High blood pressure is common during the acute phase of stroke and is associated with a poor outcome. However, the management of high blood pressure remains unclear. The ‘Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke’ trial tested whether transdermal glyceryl trinitrate, a nitric oxide donor that lowers blood pressure, is safe and effective in improving outcome after acute stroke. Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke is an international multicenter, prospective, randomized, single-blind, blinded endpoint trial, with funding from the UK Medical Research Council. Patients with acute ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage and systolic blood pressure 140–220 mmHg were randomized to glyceryl trinitrate or no glyceryl trinitrate and, where relevant, to continue or stop prestrike antihypertensive therapy. The primary outcome is shift in modified Rankin Scale at three-months. Patients or relatives gave written informed (proxy) consent, and all sites had research ethics approval. Analyses will be done by intention to treat. This paper and attachment describe the trial’s statistical analysis plan, developed prior to unblinding of date. The statistical analysis plan contains design and methods for analyses, and unpopulated tables and figures for the two primary publications and some secondary publications. The database will be locked in late February 2014 in preparation for presentation of the results in May 2014. The data from the trial will improve the precision of the estimates of the overall treatment effects (efficacy and safety) of results from completed trials of blood pressure management in acute stroke, and provide the first large-scale randomized evidence on transdermal glyceryl trinitrate, and of continuing (vs. stopping) prestroke antihypertensive medications, in acute stroke

An improvement of the Berry--Esseen inequality with applications to Poisson and mixed Poisson random sums

By a modification of the method that was applied in (Korolev and Shevtsova, 2009), here the inequalities $$\rho(F_n,\Phi)\le\frac{0.335789(\beta^3+0.425)}{\sqrt{n}}$$ and $$\rho(F_n,\Phi)\le \frac{0.3051(\beta^3+1)}{\sqrt{n}}$$ are proved for the uniform distance $\rho(F_n,\Phi)$ between the standard normal distribution function $\Phi$ and the distribution function $F_n$ of the normalized sum of an arbitrary number $n\ge1$ of independent identically distributed random variables with zero mean, unit variance and finite third absolute moment $\beta^3$. The first of these inequalities sharpens the best known version of the classical Berry--Esseen inequality since $0.335789(\beta^3+0.425)\le0.335789(1+0.425)\beta^3<0.4785\beta^3$ by virtue of the condition $\beta^3\ge1$, and 0.4785 is the best known upper estimate of the absolute constant in the classical Berry--Esseen inequality. The second inequality is applied to lowering the upper estimate of the absolute constant in the analog of the Berry--Esseen inequality for Poisson random sums to 0.3051 which is strictly less than the least possible value of the absolute constant in the classical Berry--Esseen inequality. As a corollary, the estimates of the rate of convergence in limit theorems for compound mixed Poisson distributions are refined.Comment: 33 page

'Drowning in here in his bloody sea' : exploring TV cop drama's representations of the impact of stress in modern policing

The Criminal Justice System is a part of society that is both familiar and hidden. It is familiar in that a large part of daily news and television drama is devoted to it (Carrabine, 2008; Jewkes, 2011). It is hidden in the sense that the majority of the population have little, if any, direct contact with the Criminal Justice System, meaning that the media may be a major force in shaping their views on crime and policing (Carrabine, 2008). As Reiner (2000) notes, the debate about the relationship between the media, policing, and crime has been a key feature of wider societal concerns about crime since the establishment of the modern police force. He outlines the recurring themes in post-war debates in this field. For Conservatives there has been an ongoing concern that the media is criminongenic, as it serves to undermine traditional institutions, including the police. From the viewpoint of radical criminology, the impact of the media is two-fold: it exaggerates legitimate concerns about crime and emphasises the bureaucratic and other restrictions under which the police operate (Reiner, 2000). This is seen as undermining due process and legitimatising what can be termed a ‘maverick’ approach to policing. An early example of this can be seen in Clint Eastwood’s Dirty Harry movies (Siegel, 1971) where Harry Callaghan acts as a one-man law enforcement system outside of the formal legal process, a process portrayed as corrupt, inefficient, and concerned with offenders’ rights rather than protecting victims. From a policing perspective, Reiner (2000) argues that film and TV drama creates a simplistic narrative of crime solving that is almost completely divorced from the reality of modern police work, a finding consistent with more recent work by Cummins et al., (2014)

Publication Bias in Reports of Animal Stroke Studies Leads to Major Overstatement of Efficacy

Publication bias confounds attempts to use systematic reviews to assess the efficacy of various interventions tested in experiments modelling acute ischaemic stroke, leading to a 30% overstatement of efficacy of interventions tested in animals

Therapeutic potential of transdermal glyceryl trinitrate in the management of acute stroke

The nitric oxide donor, glyceryl trinitrate (GTN), is a candidate treatment for the management of acute stroke with haemodynamic and potential reperfusion and neuroprotective effects. When administered as a transdermal patch during the acute and subacute phases after stroke, GTN was safe, lowered blood pressure, maintained cerebral blood flow, and did not induce cerebral steal or alter functional outcome. However, when given within 6 h of stroke onset, GTN reduced death and dependency (odds ratio 0.52; 95% confidence interval 0.34–0.78), death, disability, cognitive impairment and mood disturbance, and improved quality of life (data from two trials, n = 312). In a pooled analysis of four studies (n = 186), GTN reduced between-visit systolic blood pressure variability over days 1–7 compared with no GTN (mean difference -2.09; 95% confidence interval -3.83 to -0.35; p = 0.019). The efficacy of GTN given in the ultra-acute/pre-hospital setting is currently being assessed and, if found to be beneficial, the implications for hyperacute stroke practice are significant. Here, we discuss the evidence to date, potential mechanisms of action and future possibilities, including unanswered questions, for the therapeutic potential of GTN in acute stroke

Can Animal Models of Disease Reliably Inform Human Studies?

H. Bart van der Worp and colleagues discuss the controversies and possibilities of translating the results of animal experiments into human clinical trials