The increasing burden of tuberculosis in rural South Africa - impact of the HIV epidemic

Objective. To determine the impact of the HIV epidemic on tuberculosis caseload in rural South Africa.Setting. Hlabisa health district, Kwazulu-Natal.Methods. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from the tuberculosis database for the period, May 1991 June 1995. The attributable fraction of HIV-infected tuberculosis cases was estimated from the prevalence of HIV infection in tuberculosis cases and the prevalence of HIV infection in women attending antenatal clinics.Results. Between 1991 and 1995, the annual tuberculosis caseload increased from 301 to 839 cases. Tuberculosis accounted for 4.7% of all admissions in 1989 and 8.3% in 1995 (P < 0.0001). The incidence of tuberculosis increased from 154/1 00 000 in 1991, to 413/100 000 in 1995. The proportion with smear-positive pulmonary disease fell from 65% to 56% (P = 0.04), and pleural tuberculosis accounted for 7.5% of disease in 1991 and 18% in 1995 (P = 0.002). The minimum HIV prevalence in patients with tuberculosis increased from 8.7% in 1991 to 28.3% in 1995, and the proportion of tuberculosis cases attributable to HIV infection was estimated to be at least 44% in 1995.Conclusion. The burden of HIV-related tuberculosis is increasing rapidly in rural South Africa and is exerting a negative impact. Innovative approaches to control will be needed to cope with it effectively

Human-induced earthquakes: E-PIE—a generic tool for Evaluating Proposals of Induced Earthquakes

The HiQuake database documents all cases of earthquake sequences proposed on scientific grounds to have been induced by anthropogenic industrial activity. Because these cases range from being highly plausible to unpersuasive, stakeholders have requested cases to be allocated plausibility grades. Since no questionnaire scheme existed that was sufficiently generalized to be applied to the diverse cases in HiQuake, we developed a new scheme for the task. Our scheme for Evaluating Proposals of Induced Earthquakes (E-PIE) comprises nine generalized questions with a simple weighting system to adjust for the variable diagnostic strength of different observations. Results are illustrated using a simple colored pie chart. We describe the E-PIE scheme and illustrate its application in detail using the example cases of the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands, the November 2017 M5.4 Pohang Enhanced Geothermal Systems-related earthquake sequence in South Korea, and the 2001 deep-penetrating bombing of Tora Bora, Afghanistan. To test the performance of E-PIE, five analysts independently applied it to a suite of 23 diverse cases from HiQuake. By far the most diagnostic questions are those concerning spatial and temporal correlations with industrial effects. Other data are diagnostically subsidiary. For individual cases, the agreement between analysts correlated positively with the strength of evidence for human induction. E-PIE results agree well with those from a specialist scheme tailored to fluid-injection cases. Its strong performance confirms its suitability to apply to the entire HiQuake database

Urban proximity while breeding is not a predictor of perfluoroalkyl substance contamination in the eggs of brown pelicans

Identifying sources of exposure to chemical stressors is difficult when both target organisms and stressors are highly mobile. While previous studies have demonstrated that populations of some organisms proximal to urban centers may display increased burdens of human-created chemicals compared to more distal populations, this relationship may not be universal when applied to organisms and stressors capable of transboundary movements. We examined eggs of brown pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis), a nearshore seabird with daily movements ranging from local to 50 km and annual migrations ranging from year-round residency to 1500 km. Thirty-six eggs from three breeding colonies located at increasing distances to a major urban center (Charleston, South Carolina, USA) were analyzed for concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Areas of high use for each colony during the breeding season were also assessed via the tracking of adult pelicans from each colony using GPS-PTT satellite transmitters and overlapped with measures of relative urbanization via land cover data. We report potentially significant ∑PFAS concentrations in the eggs of pelicans (175.4 ± 120.1 ng/g w wt. SD), driven largely by linear perfluorooctane sulfonate (n-PFOS) (48–546 ng/g w wt.). Residues of the precursor compound perfluorooctane sulfonamide (FOSA) were also present in pelican eggs, suggesting continued exposure of local wildlife beyond implemented phaseouts of some PFAS. For most analytes, egg concentrations did not exhibit a significant spatial structure despite some differentiation in high-use areas unlike similar data for another regional apex predator, the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus). We suggest that the partially migratory nature of brown pelicans during the non-breeding season, combined with daily ranges that may extend to 50 km from local point sources, may have homogenized exposure across individuals. Charleston likely remains a major source for PFAS in the overall region, however, given the high concentrations observed as well as known releases of PFAS in the nearshore environment

Fabrication and characterization of high-contrast mid-infrared GeTe₄ channel waveguides

We report the fabrication and characterization of high index contrast (Δn ~ 0.9) GeTe4 channel waveguides on ZnSe substrate for evanescent-field based biosensing applications in the mid-infrared spectral region. GeTe4 films were deposited by RF sputtering and characterized for their structure, composition, transparency and dispersion. The lift-off technique was used to pattern the waveguide channels. Waveguiding between 2.5-3.7 µm and 6.4-7.5 µm was demonstrated and mode intensity profile and estimated propagation losses are given for the 3.5 µm wavelength

The state of tranquility: Subjective perception is shaped by contextual modulation of auditory connectivity

In this study, we investigated brain mechanisms for the generation of subjective experience from objective sensory inputs. Our experimental construct was subjective tranquility. Tranquility is a mental state more likely to occur in the presence of objective sensory inputs that arise from natural features in the environment. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine the neural response to scenes that were visually distinct (beach images vs. freeway images) and experienced as tranquil (beach) or non-tranquil (freeway). Both sets of scenes had the same auditory component because waves breaking on a beach and vehicles moving on a freeway can produce similar auditory spectral and temporal characteristics, perceived as a constant roar. Compared with scenes experienced as non-tranquil, we found that subjectively tranquil scenes were associated with significantly greater effective connectivity between the auditory cortex and medial prefrontal cortex, a region implicated in the evaluation of mental states. Similarly enhanced connectivity was also observed between the auditory cortex and posterior cingulate gyrus, temporoparietal cortex and thalamus. These findings demonstrate that visual context can modulate connectivity of the auditory cortex with regions implicated in the generation of subjective states. Importantly, this effect arises under conditions of identical auditory input. Hence, the same sound may be associated with different percepts reflecting varying connectivity between the auditory cortex and other brain regions. This suggests that subjective experience is more closely linked to the connectivity state of the auditory cortex than to its basic sensory inputs

Spacetime Coarse Grainings in the Decoherent Histories Approach to Quantum Theory

We investigate the possibility of assigning consistent probabilities to sets of histories characterized by whether they enter a particular subspace of the Hilbert space of a closed system during a given time interval. In particular we investigate the case that this subspace is a region of the configuration space. This corresponds to a particular class of coarse grainings of spacetime regions. We consider the arrival time problem and the problem of time in reparametrization invariant theories as for example in canonical quantum gravity. Decoherence conditions and probabilities for those application are derived. The resulting decoherence condition does not depend on the explicit form of the restricted propagator that was problematic for generalizations such as application in quantum cosmology. Closely related is the problem of tunnelling time as well as the quantum Zeno effect. Some interpretational comments conclude, and we discuss the applicability of this formalism to deal with the arrival time problem.Comment: 23 pages, Few changes and added references in v

Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions—that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves. The difference between imperfect models and reality is termed model discrepancy, and we are often uncertain as to the size and consequences of this discrepancy. Here, we provide two examples of the consequences of discrepancy when calibrating models at the ion channel and action potential scales. Furthermore, we attempt to account for this discrepancy when calibrating and validating an ion channel model using different methods, based on modelling the discrepancy using Gaussian processes and autoregressive-moving-average models, then highlight the advantages and shortcomings of each approach. Finally, suggestions and lines of enquiry for future work are provided. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation’

Study of variable stars in the MOA data base: long-period red variables in the Large Magellanic Cloud

One hundred and forty six long-period red variable stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) from the three year MOA project database were analysed. A careful periodic analysis was performed on these stars and a catalogue of their magnitudes, colours, periods and amplitudes is presented. We convert our blue and red magnitudes to $K$ band values using 19 oxygen-rich stars. A group of red short-period stars separated from the Mira sequence has been found on a (log P, K) diagram. They are located at the short period side of the Mira sequence consistent with the work of Wood and Sebo (1996). There are two interpretations for such stars; a difference in pulsation mode or a difference in chemical composition. We investigated the properties of these stars together with their colour, amplitude and periodicity. We conclude that they have small amplitudes and less regular variability. They are likely to be higher mode pulsators. A large scatter has been also found on the long period side of the (log P, K) diagram. This is possibly a systematic spread given that the blue band of our photometric system covers both standard B and V bands and affects carbon-rich stars.Comment: 19 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Integrated microsphere planar lightwave circuits

Multicomponent glass microspheres self-assembled on optical waveguides combine tailored optical properties with strong light/material interaction potentially leading to compact low-power photonic devices. Progress and prospects for microsphere/waveguide integration will be described